Part of: US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

8 smart money signals detected, totaling $32,825.

Categories: Iran, Trump, Blockade, Politics, shipping, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

Seven-wallet cluster buys against No

A linked seven-wallet cluster is positioning against the heavily favored No outcome, with the trader also active across six markets in this event, making the 15% Yes entry worth monitoring despite only a middling individual track record.

  • Seven wallets sharing a funder are connected to this positioning, adding coordination behind the Yes side.
  • The trader has placed $29,561 across six markets in this event, indicating a broader event-specific thesis.
  • Selling No at 85¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 15¢, while Yes currently trades around 14¢.

$8,806 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Seven-wallet cluster buys against No

A linked seven-wallet cluster is positioning against the heavily favored No outcome, with the trader also active across six markets in this event, making the 15% Yes entry worth monitoring despite only a middling individual track record.

  • Seven wallets sharing a funder are connected to this positioning, adding coordination behind the Yes side.
  • The trader has placed $29,561 across six markets in this event, indicating a broader event-specific thesis.
  • Selling No at 85¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 15¢, while Yes currently trades around 14¢.

$3,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Proven serial trader trims Yes

A highly proven serial trader is selling Yes after building a large position, but the trade may partly reflect profit-taking rather than a fresh bearish conviction.

  • This bettor has won 82% of 1,530 resolved positions and earned about $807,000 in P&L.
  • The wallet traded across five markets in this event and is selling Yes at 24¢, signaling a bearish view on the blockade ending.
  • The wallet already held $18,811 of Yes at an 18¢ average, so this may be profit-taking rather than a wholly new position.

$1,256 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Seven-wallet cluster buying No

Seven linked wallets and a serial cross-market trader jointly accumulated $7,900 in No shares, making this a meaningful coordinated position despite only moderate historical edge.

  • Seven wallets sharing a funder are aligned on No, with $7,900 committed.
  • This wallet has traded 83 markets across 52 events and is up $124,312 lifetime.
  • The position was built around 77¢–81¢ while No currently trades near 80%, leaving a relatively favorable entry below 90¢.

$7,900 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Proven serial trader trims Yes

A highly proven serial trader is selling Yes after building a large position, but the trade may partly reflect profit-taking rather than a fresh bearish conviction.

  • This bettor has won 82% of 1,530 resolved positions and earned about $807,000 in P&L.
  • The wallet traded across five markets in this event and is selling Yes at 24¢, signaling a bearish view on the blockade ending.
  • The wallet already held $18,811 of Yes at an 18¢ average, so this may be profit-taking rather than a wholly new position.

$2,024 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

94% win-rate bettor buys No

A highly proven bettor with a 94% win rate and nearly $929,000 in profits is buying No at 76% while positioning across three related markets.

  • This bettor has won 94% of 1,951 resolved trades and is up nearly $929,000.
  • They are buying No at 76¢, consistent with a strong view that the blockade will not end by the deadline.
  • The wallet is also positioned across three markets in the same event, totaling $5,443.

$1,256 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%

93% winner shifts toward Yes

A highly successful bettor with a 93% win rate is making a coordinated, multi-market shift toward Yes at an effective 18¢ entry.

  • This bettor has won 93% of 58 resolved trades and earned over $104,000 in profit.
  • They exited $6,102 of No exposure across three trades, equivalent to buying Yes at roughly 18¢.
  • The wallet has positioned across six related markets with $27,715 committed, while Yes has already risen 7% in a day.

$6,102 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

96% bettor adds to No

A highly profitable bettor with a 96% win rate is adding to an existing No position while expressing a consistent view across seven related markets.

  • This bettor has won 27 of 28 resolved trades and is up $6,198 overall.
  • They are adding to an existing No position at 76¢, signaling continued conviction rather than taking profits.
  • The wallet has traded across seven related markets with $14,311 committed to the broader thesis.

$1,980 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%

Top Holders

  1. 0xcdbc...f38b — Yes, $44,687 (38% win rate)
  2. 0x9f9e...4c57 — Yes, $34,779 (80% win rate)
  3. 0xaacb...90cb — Yes, $31,228 (70% win rate)
  4. 0xe2a9...50cb — Yes, $21,052
  5. 0x6139...6b7a — Yes, $19,095 (71% win rate)
  6. 0xd426...334a — Yes, $15,865 (51% win rate)
  7. 0xfc2f...10c7 — Yes, $11,541 (76% win rate)
  8. 0x0845...6b6f — Yes, $8,509 (70% win rate)
  9. 0xefce...4e4a — Yes, $8,307 (51% win rate)
  10. 0x9592...a7b8 — Yes, $8,000 (76% win rate)

Related Theses

Someone else wins Peru presidency

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Flávio Bolsonaro wins, Lula loses

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Iran blockade ends in December

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Ceasefire holds through August

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Iran ceasefire holds into winter

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US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?$32,825 tracked8 signalsIranTrumpBlockadePoliticsshippingPeace DealGeopoliticsU.S. x Iran
Yes
0¢
No
100¢

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

Notable Trades

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?

2026-09-01 17:10 UTC

$8,806 on Yes at 15¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?

2026-08-31 21:56 UTC

$3,500 on Yes at 15¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?

2026-08-30 19:46 UTC

$1,256 on No at 76¢

76¢→100¢↑24¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?

2026-08-28 06:20 UTC

$7,900 on No at 79¢

79¢→100¢↑21¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?

2026-08-24 01:11 UTC

$2,024 on No at 76¢

76¢→100¢↑24¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?

2026-08-23 15:28 UTC

$1,256 on No at 76¢

76¢→100¢↑24¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?

2026-08-23 21:54 UTC

$6,102 on Yes at 18¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?

2026-08-23 10:47 UTC

$1,980 on No at 76¢

76¢→100¢↑24¢

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