Part of: US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether the U.S. government will publicly announce the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of its naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers by September 7, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves on September 8, 2026, and its Yes or No odds reflect traders’ expectations; PolySpotter is tracking $6,992 in smart money and one recent signal.

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $6,992.

Categories: Iran, Trump, Blockade, Politics, shipping, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

Profitable cluster scaling into No

Four wallets added nearly $7,000 to No, including two highly profitable bettors with strong cross-market positioning, though the outcome is already priced at 88%.

  • Four wallets bought No for nearly $7,000, showing coordinated conviction that the blockade will not end by the deadline.
  • Two key bettors have strong records: 82% across 305 resolved trades and 93% across 42 trades.
  • Several wallets are adding to existing No positions while positioning across 6–13 related markets, but the 86–87¢ entry leaves limited upside.

$6,992 on No

Top Holders

  1. 0x6d9f...9790 Yes, $16,667 (61% win rate)
  2. 0x4478...02a4 Yes, $14,001 (59% win rate)
  3. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $11,000 (48% win rate)
  4. 0x199d...6e7b No, $8,779 (90% win rate)
  5. 0xeb22...808a Yes, $8,019 (34% win rate)
  6. 0xe738...df65 No, $6,586 (62% win rate)
  7. 0x0845...6b6f Yes, $5,424 (70% win rate)
  8. 0x3803...6d3b No, $5,350 (96% win rate)
  9. 0x8833...2393 No, $5,317 (82% win rate)
  10. 0x40cf...d21d Yes, $5,000 (46% win rate)

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?

13dUS announces end of Iranian blockade by...?$6,992 tracked1 signalIranTrumpBlockadePoliticsshippingPeace DealGeopoliticsU.S. x Iran
Yes
12¢
No
89¢

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

Price History — “No
96¢
89¢
82¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?

1d ago

$6,992 on No at 87¢

87¢89¢2¢