Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?
This prediction market asks whether the U.S. will officially announce a new Iran agreement, ceasefire framework, or extension of a halt in direct military engagement with Iran by May 25 at 11:59 PM ET. PolySpotter is tracking $3,921 in smart money activity across 2 signals, with recent alerts including sharp cluster buying on No and a coordinated Yes flip.
17 smart money signals detected, totaling $81,505.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader is taking a fresh longshot Yes position after broader related-event positioning, though the individual trade size is modest.
- This bettor is up about $196K lifetime across 159 resolved markets.
- They regularly trade linked event markets, with 42 events and over $1.1M in cross-market volume tracked.
- They bought Yes at 5¢, implying a high-upside longshot view despite the market pricing it near 3–4¢.
$1,054 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 58%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 75% record and $223k profit is taking a fresh long-shot Yes position after broader event positioning.
- This bettor has won 75% of 357 resolved trades and is up $223k lifetime.
- They are active across 3 related markets with $41k positioned, suggesting a broader Iran-ceasefire thesis.
- Entry at 6¢ is a long-shot bet that pays heavily if a qualifying U.S. announcement lands by the deadline.
$2,868 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a long track record is effectively buying Yes against a sharp recent selloff.
- This bettor is up $1.55M lifetime across 918 resolved markets.
- They are effectively buying Yes at 11¢ after the market fell 68.5 points in a day.
- This wallet has traded 54 related events and is also positioned across 3 markets in this event.
$10,315 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%
Profitable cross-market whale
A highly profitable, experienced wallet is adding a $4.9k No bet as part of a broader $14.3k cross-market Iran-event position.
- This bettor is up $1.55M lifetime across 918 resolved trades.
- They have put $14.3k across 3 related Iran markets, pointing to a broader No-side thesis.
- Entry at 90¢ is a high-conviction bet that no qualifying U.S.–Iran agreement is announced by the deadline.
$4,870 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
6-market event trader
Moderately interesting cross-market positioning: a profitable high-volume wallet has bet across 6 related Iran-ceasefire markets, adding No at 88¢ here.
- This wallet has placed $75.8K across 6 related markets, suggesting a clear event-level view.
- The bettor is profitable overall, up $46.8K across 378 resolved trades.
- Buying No at 88¢ shows they expect no qualifying U.S.-Iran agreement by the deadline.
$2,754 on No | Wallet win rate: 54%
Coordinated Yes flip
Four wallets, including cross-market profitable traders, are simultaneously selling No and effectively buying Yes around 17–19¢, though some of this may be profit-taking from earlier No positions.
- Four wallets moved the same way, effectively buying Yes around 18¢ for nearly $10k total.
- This is a contrarian move against an 84% No market on a geopolitical deadline market.
- Several wallets have profitable histories, including one up $47k lifetime and another winning 40 of 41 resolved bets.
$9,841 on Yes
82% winner buying No
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 82% long-term win rate bought No at 82¢ amid a 16x volume spike and related positioning across the event.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $678K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.29M deployed across 61 markets in 26 events.
- Volume on this market is running 16x above normal, and this wallet is taking the No side at 82¢.
$3,791 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
88% cross-market winner
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win record bought $4.3k of No amid a 16x volume spike on a geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and has bet across 49 markets in 25 events.
- They bought $4.3k of No, adding to a broader $9.9k thesis across three related markets.
- Market activity is heating up, with volume running 16x above its historical average.
$4,266 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Proven 82% win-rate bettor
A highly proven cross-market bettor with an 82% win rate and $678k lifetime profit bought No amid a volume spike and upward No price move.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $678k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.28M across 61 related markets.
- No has moved sharply upward with an 11.9x volume spike, supporting the same direction.
$3,956 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Serial event trader buying No
Experienced cross-market trader with a long positive record bought No as volume and price momentum moved sharply toward No.
- This bettor has 970 resolved trades and is up $78,667 lifetime.
- They bought No at 77¢, and the market has already moved to 82¢.
- Volume is running nearly 12x normal with price momentum strongly toward No.
$1,704 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%
Top Holders
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 61977568, $42,077 (80% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — Outcome 61977568, $25,980 (58% win rate)
- 0xe162...8a81 — Outcome 61977568, $16,660
- 0xa022...77f8 — Outcome 61977568, $12,999 (70% win rate)
- 0x80a0...5708 — Outcome 61977568, $11,000 (39% win rate)
- 0x70ff...b65f — Outcome 61977568, $9,225
- 0x5188...c804 — Outcome 61977568, $8,086 (82% win rate)
- 0xcc26...32ca — Outcome 61977568, $7,057 (42% win rate)
- 0x0066...394f — Outcome 61977568, $6,856
- 0xee67...67a6 — Outcome 61977568, $6,733
Related Theses
Iran keeps airspace open
Covers 7 related markets
Iran agreement comes early June
Covers 7 related markets
