Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?

This prediction market asks whether the U.S. will officially announce a new Iran agreement, ceasefire framework, or extension of a halt in direct military engagement with Iran by May 25 at 11:59 PM ET. PolySpotter is tracking $3,921 in smart money activity across 2 signals, with recent alerts including sharp cluster buying on No and a coordinated Yes flip.

17 smart money signals detected, totaling $81,505.

Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

Profitable cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader is taking a fresh longshot Yes position after broader related-event positioning, though the individual trade size is modest.

  • This bettor is up about $196K lifetime across 159 resolved markets.
  • They regularly trade linked event markets, with 42 events and over $1.1M in cross-market volume tracked.
  • They bought Yes at 5¢, implying a high-upside longshot view despite the market pricing it near 3–4¢.

$1,054 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 58%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 75% record and $223k profit is taking a fresh long-shot Yes position after broader event positioning.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 357 resolved trades and is up $223k lifetime.
  • They are active across 3 related markets with $41k positioned, suggesting a broader Iran-ceasefire thesis.
  • Entry at 6¢ is a long-shot bet that pays heavily if a qualifying U.S. announcement lands by the deadline.

$2,868 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%

Profitable serial event trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a long track record is effectively buying Yes against a sharp recent selloff.

  • This bettor is up $1.55M lifetime across 918 resolved markets.
  • They are effectively buying Yes at 11¢ after the market fell 68.5 points in a day.
  • This wallet has traded 54 related events and is also positioned across 3 markets in this event.

$10,315 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%

Profitable cross-market whale

A highly profitable, experienced wallet is adding a $4.9k No bet as part of a broader $14.3k cross-market Iran-event position.

  • This bettor is up $1.55M lifetime across 918 resolved trades.
  • They have put $14.3k across 3 related Iran markets, pointing to a broader No-side thesis.
  • Entry at 90¢ is a high-conviction bet that no qualifying U.S.–Iran agreement is announced by the deadline.

$4,870 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%

6-market event trader

Moderately interesting cross-market positioning: a profitable high-volume wallet has bet across 6 related Iran-ceasefire markets, adding No at 88¢ here.

  • This wallet has placed $75.8K across 6 related markets, suggesting a clear event-level view.
  • The bettor is profitable overall, up $46.8K across 378 resolved trades.
  • Buying No at 88¢ shows they expect no qualifying U.S.-Iran agreement by the deadline.

$2,754 on No | Wallet win rate: 54%

Coordinated Yes flip

Four wallets, including cross-market profitable traders, are simultaneously selling No and effectively buying Yes around 17–19¢, though some of this may be profit-taking from earlier No positions.

  • Four wallets moved the same way, effectively buying Yes around 18¢ for nearly $10k total.
  • This is a contrarian move against an 84% No market on a geopolitical deadline market.
  • Several wallets have profitable histories, including one up $47k lifetime and another winning 40 of 41 resolved bets.

$9,841 on Yes

82% winner buying No

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 82% long-term win rate bought No at 82¢ amid a 16x volume spike and related positioning across the event.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $678K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.29M deployed across 61 markets in 26 events.
  • Volume on this market is running 16x above normal, and this wallet is taking the No side at 82¢.

$3,791 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

88% cross-market winner

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win record bought $4.3k of No amid a 16x volume spike on a geopolitical market.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and has bet across 49 markets in 25 events.
  • They bought $4.3k of No, adding to a broader $9.9k thesis across three related markets.
  • Market activity is heating up, with volume running 16x above its historical average.

$4,266 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

Proven 82% win-rate bettor

A highly proven cross-market bettor with an 82% win rate and $678k lifetime profit bought No amid a volume spike and upward No price move.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $678k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.28M across 61 related markets.
  • No has moved sharply upward with an 11.9x volume spike, supporting the same direction.

$3,956 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Serial event trader buying No

Experienced cross-market trader with a long positive record bought No as volume and price momentum moved sharply toward No.

  • This bettor has 970 resolved trades and is up $78,667 lifetime.
  • They bought No at 77¢, and the market has already moved to 82¢.
  • Volume is running nearly 12x normal with price momentum strongly toward No.

$1,704 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%

Top Holders

  1. 0xfc2f...10c7 Outcome 61977568, $42,077 (80% win rate)
  2. 0x7447...a16d Outcome 61977568, $25,980 (58% win rate)
  3. 0xe162...8a81 Outcome 61977568, $16,660
  4. 0xa022...77f8 Outcome 61977568, $12,999 (70% win rate)
  5. 0x80a0...5708 Outcome 61977568, $11,000 (39% win rate)
  6. 0x70ff...b65f Outcome 61977568, $9,225
  7. 0x5188...c804 Outcome 61977568, $8,086 (82% win rate)
  8. 0xcc26...32ca Outcome 61977568, $7,057 (42% win rate)
  9. 0x0066...394f Outcome 61977568, $6,856
  10. 0xee67...67a6 Outcome 61977568, $6,733

Related Theses

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 6 related markets

Covers 7 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 6 related markets

Iran keeps airspace open

Covers 7 related markets

Iran agreement comes early June

Covers 7 related markets

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?

310dUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?$81,505 tracked17 signalsPoliticsGeopoliticsIran CeasefireIranU.S. x Iran

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.

Notable Trades

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?

53d ago

$1,054 on Yes at 5¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?

54d ago

$2,868 on Yes at 6¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?

54d ago

$10,315 on Yes at 11¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?

54d ago

$4,870 on No at 90¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?

55d ago

$2,754 on No at 88¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?

55d ago

$9,841 on Yes at 18¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?

55d ago

$3,791 on No at 82¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?

55d ago

$4,266 on No at 84¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?

55d ago

$3,956 on No at 83¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?

55d ago

$1,704 on No at 77¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?

55d ago

$14,490 on No at 59¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?

55d ago

$13,210 on No at 55¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?

55d ago

$1,080 on No at 36¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?

55d ago

$1,050 on No at 35¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?

55d ago

$2,000 on No at 40¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?

55d ago

$1,140 on No at 38¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?

55d ago

$3,116 on Yes at 62¢

Related Theses