Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.
14 smart money signals detected, totaling $108,081.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
Sharp wallets buying YES
High-scoring same-direction YES cluster led by two highly profitable wallets, including an 82% winner with $519k P&L and a serial cross-market trader with strong historical results.
- Two proven bettors are on the YES side, including one up $519k with an 82% win record and another up $104k with an 88% win record.
- Three wallets moved the same way, with the No sale converting to the same YES bet at about 10¢.
- One wallet has traded 136 related markets across 50 events with an 82% win record, suggesting this is part of a broader thesis.
$4,240 on Yes
82% winner event specialist
Sharp 82% winner with strong lifetime profit is buying Yes while running a large cross-market thesis across the same Iran agreement event.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $519K lifetime.
- They are active across 8 related markets in this event, with $59K positioned overall.
- Buying Yes at 10¢ implies a high-upside view against the market’s 90% No pricing.
$1,400 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Three sharp wallets buying YES
Surface because three wallets are buying Yes together, including two large-sample profitable bettors with 81%+ win rates and nearly $3M combined lifetime profit.
- Two of these bettors win 81%+ of resolved trades and are up about $2.9M combined lifetime.
- Three wallets bought the same Yes outcome within minutes, totaling $6.5K at roughly 11¢ average entry.
- This is a low-odds geopolitical bet where sharp traders appear to be taking the long-shot side.
$6,535 on Yes
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 72% record is buying a low-probability Yes outcome as part of a broader $78.8k event-level position.
- This bettor has won 72% of 58 resolved trades and is up about $203k lifetime.
- They are active across 6 related markets in this event, with about $78.8k positioned overall.
- Buying Yes at 8¢ is a high-upside bet that the market may be underpricing a U.S.-Iran announcement.
$1,458 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large history is taking a long-shot Yes position on a geopolitics market, though the individual bet size is modest.
- This bettor has traded 88 markets across 57 events and is up $260k lifetime.
- They are buying the long-shot Yes side at 7¢, implying a high-upside view against the current 94% No consensus.
- The market is active with $578k traded in 24h, so this is a directional thesis rather than a thin-market price push.
$1,750 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Profitable serial event trader
A profitable high-volume cross-market trader is taking a fresh Yes position at 11¢ on a geopolitical market, though the bet is modest relative to market volume.
- This bettor has a long record: 67% wins across 1,061 resolved bets and +$266K lifetime profit.
- They specialize in related-event markets, with activity across 56 events and $1.5M traded.
- Entry at 11¢ implies a high-upside view despite the market pricing Yes at only about 10%.
$1,241 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
93% winner buying No
A highly profitable 93% lifetime bettor is buying No with a $14.6k position on a geopolitical market, reinforced by a long serial cross-market track record.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up about $1.65M lifetime.
- They have traded 145 markets across 110 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- The $14.6k No buy at 89¢ is fresh conviction against a U.S.-Iran agreement announcement by the deadline.
$14,592 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Perfect-record bettor buys No
Sharp wallet with a 26-0 resolved record and positive P&L bought $8.9k of No while building a broader $27.5k cross-market thesis.
- This bettor is 26-for-26 on resolved trades and is up about $180k lifetime.
- They bought $8.9k of No at 89¢, adding to a $27.5k thesis across 4 related markets.
- The market has moved sharply toward No in the last day, and this trade follows that momentum.
$8,885 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Profitable cross-market thesis
Profitable high-volume wallet is taking a cross-market Iran ceasefire thesis across 9 related markets, with this trade equivalent to buying Yes around 11¢.
- This wallet has traded 385 resolved markets and is up about $50k lifetime.
- They have put $128k across 9 related Iran markets, suggesting a broad event-level view.
- This trade is effectively buying Yes at 11¢, a contrarian entry after Yes fell 12 points today.
$3,488 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 54%
Perfect-record whale buying NO
Surface: a perfect-record profitable wallet made a $58.6K NO bet and has related cross-market positioning on the same Iran event.
- This bettor is 26-for-26 on resolved markets and up $179.8K lifetime.
- They put $58.6K on No, larger than the market’s displayed liquidity.
- Yes has fallen 21.5 points in a day, and this wallet is adding to that momentum near the deadline.
$58,632 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Top Holders
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Yes, $131,597 (79% win rate)
- 0x05f6...25a1 — Yes, $33,225 (67% win rate)
- 0xae7c...487e — Yes, $21,930 (87% win rate)
- 0xfd2b...8e50 — Yes, $16,152 (57% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Yes, $14,900 (73% win rate)
- 0xe162...8a81 — Yes, $14,430
- 0xca21...b07c — Yes, $13,625 (59% win rate)
- 0x1c12...79d9 — Yes, $12,024 (17% win rate)
- 0x75bd...1fea — Yes, $10,219 (38% win rate)
- 0x648a...c789 — Yes, $7,211
Related Theses
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Covers 5 related markets
Iran agreement lands May 27
Covers 6 related markets
