Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?
14 smart money signals detected, totaling $108,081.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
Sharp wallets buying YES
High-scoring same-direction YES cluster led by two highly profitable wallets, including an 82% winner with $519k P&L and a serial cross-market trader with strong historical results.
- Two proven bettors are on the YES side, including one up $519k with an 82% win record and another up $104k with an 88% win record.
- Three wallets moved the same way, with the No sale converting to the same YES bet at about 10¢.
- One wallet has traded 136 related markets across 50 events with an 82% win record, suggesting this is part of a broader thesis.
$4,240 on Yes
82% winner event specialist
Sharp 82% winner with strong lifetime profit is buying Yes while running a large cross-market thesis across the same Iran agreement event.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $519K lifetime.
- They are active across 8 related markets in this event, with $59K positioned overall.
- Buying Yes at 10¢ implies a high-upside view against the market’s 90% No pricing.
$1,400 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
Three sharp wallets buying YES
Surface because three wallets are buying Yes together, including two large-sample profitable bettors with 81%+ win rates and nearly $3M combined lifetime profit.
- Two of these bettors win 81%+ of resolved trades and are up about $2.9M combined lifetime.
- Three wallets bought the same Yes outcome within minutes, totaling $6.5K at roughly 11¢ average entry.
- This is a low-odds geopolitical bet where sharp traders appear to be taking the long-shot side.
$6,535 on Yes
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 72% record is buying a low-probability Yes outcome as part of a broader $78.8k event-level position.
- This bettor has won 72% of 58 resolved trades and is up about $203k lifetime.
- They are active across 6 related markets in this event, with about $78.8k positioned overall.
- Buying Yes at 8¢ is a high-upside bet that the market may be underpricing a U.S.-Iran announcement.
$1,458 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large history is taking a long-shot Yes position on a geopolitics market, though the individual bet size is modest.
- This bettor has traded 88 markets across 57 events and is up $260k lifetime.
- They are buying the long-shot Yes side at 7¢, implying a high-upside view against the current 94% No consensus.
- The market is active with $578k traded in 24h, so this is a directional thesis rather than a thin-market price push.
$1,750 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable serial event trader
A profitable high-volume cross-market trader is taking a fresh Yes position at 11¢ on a geopolitical market, though the bet is modest relative to market volume.
- This bettor has a long record: 67% wins across 1,061 resolved bets and +$266K lifetime profit.
- They specialize in related-event markets, with activity across 56 events and $1.5M traded.
- Entry at 11¢ implies a high-upside view despite the market pricing Yes at only about 10%.
$1,241 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
93% winner buying No
A highly profitable 93% lifetime bettor is buying No with a $14.6k position on a geopolitical market, reinforced by a long serial cross-market track record.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up about $1.65M lifetime.
- They have traded 145 markets across 110 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- The $14.6k No buy at 89¢ is fresh conviction against a U.S.-Iran agreement announcement by the deadline.
$14,592 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
Perfect-record bettor buys No
Sharp wallet with a 26-0 resolved record and positive P&L bought $8.9k of No while building a broader $27.5k cross-market thesis.
- This bettor is 26-for-26 on resolved trades and is up about $180k lifetime.
- They bought $8.9k of No at 89¢, adding to a $27.5k thesis across 4 related markets.
- The market has moved sharply toward No in the last day, and this trade follows that momentum.
$8,885 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Profitable cross-market thesis
Profitable high-volume wallet is taking a cross-market Iran ceasefire thesis across 9 related markets, with this trade equivalent to buying Yes around 11¢.
- This wallet has traded 385 resolved markets and is up about $50k lifetime.
- They have put $128k across 9 related Iran markets, suggesting a broad event-level view.
- This trade is effectively buying Yes at 11¢, a contrarian entry after Yes fell 12 points today.
$3,488 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 54%
Perfect-record whale buying NO
Surface: a perfect-record profitable wallet made a $58.6K NO bet and has related cross-market positioning on the same Iran event.
- This bettor is 26-for-26 on resolved markets and up $179.8K lifetime.
- They put $58.6K on No, larger than the market’s displayed liquidity.
- Yes has fallen 21.5 points in a day, and this wallet is adding to that momentum near the deadline.
$58,632 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Top Holders
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 55978393, $141,327 (80% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Outcome 55978393, $131,597 (80% win rate)
- 0xa022...77f8 — Outcome 55978393, $33,225 (70% win rate)
- 0xae7c...487e — Outcome 55978393, $21,930 (86% win rate)
- 0x9592...a7b8 — Outcome 55978393, $19,918 (93% win rate)
- 0xfd2b...8e50 — Outcome 55978393, $16,152 (56% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 55978393, $14,900 (70% win rate)
- 0xe162...8a81 — Outcome 55978393, $14,430
- 0xca21...b07c — Outcome 55978393, $13,625 (59% win rate)
- 0x1c12...79d9 — Outcome 55978393, $12,024 (17% win rate)
Related Theses
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Covers 5 related markets
Iran agreement lands May 27
Covers 6 related markets
