Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?
15 smart money signals detected, totaling $40,794.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
Profitable serial cross-market trader
Profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 70% record is positioning across six related markets and buying No despite already having exited a prior Yes position.
- This bettor has won 70% of 430 resolved markets and is up $161K lifetime.
- They are active across 6 related markets with $27.8K positioned, suggesting a broader thesis.
- They bought No at 90¢ after closing a prior Yes position, signaling a clear shift toward no agreement by the deadline.
$1,828 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%
81% winner cross-market thesis
Sharp wallet with an 81% resolved win rate and $2.4M lifetime profit is building a cross-market Iran ceasefire thesis, including a Yes buy at 15¢ here.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $2.4M lifetime.
- They have placed $43k across 7 related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Entry at 15¢ implies a high-upside position if the ceasefire announcement odds rebound.
$1,239 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
91% sharp buys No
Proven sharp wallet with 91% win rate and $1.76M lifetime profit bought No on an Iran ceasefire-extension market while also showing serial cross-market positioning.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $1.76M lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 125 events, with $1.88M tracked in similar positioning.
- Buying No at 87¢ fits the market move, with Yes down 6 points over the last day.
$3,039 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
$255K Iran thesis trader
A profitable wallet with a broad $255K cross-market Iran thesis is adding a No bet on a geopolitically meaningful market, though the wallet’s historical edge is modest.
- This wallet has traded $255K across 12 related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- It is buying No at 86¢ as Yes has fallen 6 points today, aligning with recent market momentum.
- The bettor is up $48K across 407 resolved markets, though its win record is only 51%.
$1,720 on No | Wallet win rate: 54%
Profitable event specialist flips No
Profitable serial cross-market trader flipped into No after closing a larger Yes position, amid a 10.7x volume spike on a geopolitically sensitive market.
- This active event bettor is up $169k lifetime across more than 1,100 resolved trades.
- They previously closed a larger Yes position and are now buying No, suggesting a clear shift in view.
- Market volume is running 10.7x above normal after a 16-point Yes move, making this a notable contrarian entry.
$2,985 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%
Profitable serial trader fades rally
A profitable serial cross-market trader is fading the Yes rally after a sharp volume and price spike in a politically sensitive market near deadline.
- This bettor has traded 113 markets across 55 events and is up about $161k lifetime.
- They sold Yes at 48¢, equivalent to buying No at 52¢, before Yes fell to 37¢.
- The market saw a 10.7x volume spike and a 25-point Yes price move, making this a notable fade of momentum.
$2,551 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%
Sharp cluster buying Yes
Strong coordinated Yes flow from five wallets, including a highly profitable 88% winner, alongside a 10.7x volume spike and a 25-point price move.
- Five wallets are all betting Yes, including one bettor who wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $220K lifetime.
- The market saw a 10.7x volume spike while Yes jumped about 25 points, suggesting fresh momentum behind the same thesis.
- Several wallets are also active across related Iran agreement markets, with $47K positioned in the broader event.
$11,629 on Yes
Serial cross-market bettor
A profitable serial cross-market trader is building a $36k position across six related Iran-agreement markets, including a $3.3k buy on No at 82¢.
- This bettor has traded 75 markets across 44 events and is up $63k lifetime.
- They have $36k positioned across six related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 82¢ means they are backing the current favorite despite Yes rising 9.5 points today.
$3,317 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%
Cross-market Iran No thesis
A modestly profitable high-volume wallet is expressing a broad No thesis across 12 related Iran agreement markets, though the individual trade size is not large.
- This wallet has placed $226k across 12 related markets, suggesting a broad thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- The bettor is up $43.6k lifetime, though their 51% win rate is not especially sharp.
- Buying No at 83¢ implies they see little chance of a qualifying U.S.-Iran announcement by the deadline.
$1,121 on No | Wallet win rate: 54%
$221k cross-market thesis
A high-volume cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes here as part of a $221k thesis across 12 related Iran markets, though their long-run win rate is only modest.
- This wallet has positioned across 12 related Iran markets with $221k total exposure.
- This trade is effectively a Yes buy at 17¢, slightly below the current 18¢ market price.
- The bettor is profitable lifetime, up $41k across 402 resolved bets, but only wins 51% of them.
$1,861 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 54%
Top Holders
- 0xcdc5...afc9 — Outcome 40676062, $337,240 (17% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Outcome 40676062, $45,082 (80% win rate)
- 0x12d6...f2a8 — Outcome 40676062, $17,718 (49% win rate)
- 0xc84f...e0c5 — Outcome 40676062, $11,746 (88% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — Outcome 40676062, $5,823 (58% win rate)
- 0xc884...e17e — Outcome 40676062, $5,449 (100% win rate)
- 0xd3a6...fd55 — Outcome 40676062, $5,000 (41% win rate)
- 0x0099...386e — Outcome 40676062, $3,314 (58% win rate)
- 0xf58c...d588 — Outcome 40676062, $2,500 (36% win rate)
- 0x0eaa...c521 — Outcome 40676062, $2,334 (41% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran closes airspace mid-June
Covers 6 related markets
Iran ceasefire collapses by June
Covers 6 related markets
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Covers 4 related markets
Iran deal lands in May
Covers 10 related markets
