Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.
15 smart money signals detected, totaling $40,794.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
Profitable serial cross-market trader
Profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 70% record is positioning across six related markets and buying No despite already having exited a prior Yes position.
- This bettor has won 70% of 430 resolved markets and is up $161K lifetime.
- They are active across 6 related markets with $27.8K positioned, suggesting a broader thesis.
- They bought No at 90¢ after closing a prior Yes position, signaling a clear shift toward no agreement by the deadline.
$1,828 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%
81% winner cross-market thesis
Sharp wallet with an 81% resolved win rate and $2.4M lifetime profit is building a cross-market Iran ceasefire thesis, including a Yes buy at 15¢ here.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $2.4M lifetime.
- They have placed $43k across 7 related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Entry at 15¢ implies a high-upside position if the ceasefire announcement odds rebound.
$1,239 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
91% sharp buys No
Proven sharp wallet with 91% win rate and $1.76M lifetime profit bought No on an Iran ceasefire-extension market while also showing serial cross-market positioning.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $1.76M lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 125 events, with $1.88M tracked in similar positioning.
- Buying No at 87¢ fits the market move, with Yes down 6 points over the last day.
$3,039 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
$255K Iran thesis trader
A profitable wallet with a broad $255K cross-market Iran thesis is adding a No bet on a geopolitically meaningful market, though the wallet’s historical edge is modest.
- This wallet has traded $255K across 12 related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- It is buying No at 86¢ as Yes has fallen 6 points today, aligning with recent market momentum.
- The bettor is up $48K across 407 resolved markets, though its win record is only 51%.
$1,720 on No | Wallet win rate: 54%
Profitable event specialist flips No
Profitable serial cross-market trader flipped into No after closing a larger Yes position, amid a 10.7x volume spike on a geopolitically sensitive market.
- This active event bettor is up $169k lifetime across more than 1,100 resolved trades.
- They previously closed a larger Yes position and are now buying No, suggesting a clear shift in view.
- Market volume is running 10.7x above normal after a 16-point Yes move, making this a notable contrarian entry.
$2,985 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%
Profitable serial trader fades rally
A profitable serial cross-market trader is fading the Yes rally after a sharp volume and price spike in a politically sensitive market near deadline.
- This bettor has traded 113 markets across 55 events and is up about $161k lifetime.
- They sold Yes at 48¢, equivalent to buying No at 52¢, before Yes fell to 37¢.
- The market saw a 10.7x volume spike and a 25-point Yes price move, making this a notable fade of momentum.
$2,551 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%
Sharp cluster buying Yes
Strong coordinated Yes flow from five wallets, including a highly profitable 88% winner, alongside a 10.7x volume spike and a 25-point price move.
- Five wallets are all betting Yes, including one bettor who wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $220K lifetime.
- The market saw a 10.7x volume spike while Yes jumped about 25 points, suggesting fresh momentum behind the same thesis.
- Several wallets are also active across related Iran agreement markets, with $47K positioned in the broader event.
$11,629 on Yes
Serial cross-market bettor
A profitable serial cross-market trader is building a $36k position across six related Iran-agreement markets, including a $3.3k buy on No at 82¢.
- This bettor has traded 75 markets across 44 events and is up $63k lifetime.
- They have $36k positioned across six related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 82¢ means they are backing the current favorite despite Yes rising 9.5 points today.
$3,317 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%
Cross-market Iran No thesis
A modestly profitable high-volume wallet is expressing a broad No thesis across 12 related Iran agreement markets, though the individual trade size is not large.
- This wallet has placed $226k across 12 related markets, suggesting a broad thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- The bettor is up $43.6k lifetime, though their 51% win rate is not especially sharp.
- Buying No at 83¢ implies they see little chance of a qualifying U.S.-Iran announcement by the deadline.
$1,121 on No | Wallet win rate: 54%
$221k cross-market thesis
A high-volume cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes here as part of a $221k thesis across 12 related Iran markets, though their long-run win rate is only modest.
- This wallet has positioned across 12 related Iran markets with $221k total exposure.
- This trade is effectively a Yes buy at 17¢, slightly below the current 18¢ market price.
- The bettor is profitable lifetime, up $41k across 402 resolved bets, but only wins 51% of them.
$1,861 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 54%
Top Holders
- 0xcdc5...afc9 — Yes, $337,240 (17% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Yes, $45,082 (79% win rate)
- 0xc84f...e0c5 — Yes, $11,746 (87% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — Yes, $5,823 (53% win rate)
- 0xc884...e17e — Yes, $5,449 (100% win rate)
- 0x0099...386e — Yes, $3,314 (58% win rate)
- 0xf58c...d588 — Yes, $2,500 (36% win rate)
- 0x0eaa...c521 — Yes, $2,334 (41% win rate)
- 0x6139...6b7a — Yes, $2,001 (71% win rate)
- 0xfa31...7664 — Yes, $1,500
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