US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?
This Polymarket asks whether official representatives of the United States and Iran will hold a direct diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026, before 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to Yes only if an authorized, official-capacity meeting on US-Iran relations takes place; indirect contacts or informal interactions do not count. Traders use this market to track the odds of a formal US-Iran diplomatic opening ahead of the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,700.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
Profitable geopolitical grinder
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a strong 72% win rate and $222k profit is buying No in a moderately thin geopolitics market, making this a credible thesis worth surfacing despite the modest ticket size.
- This bettor has won 72% of 1,148 resolved trades and is up $222k lifetime.
- They trade across 311 markets and 136 events, which suggests a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
- Bought No at 68¢ in a market with only about $5.7k recent volume, showing clear conviction in a thinner market.
$1,700 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $11,801 (71% win rate)
- 0x8e44...94fa — No, $5,232
- 0x6d9f...9790 — No, $3,350 (62% win rate)
- 0xe738...df65 — No, $2,500 (72% win rate)
- 0x5df7...780d — No, $1,293 (60% win rate)
- 0x0482...6b0a — Yes, $1,166 (36% win rate)
- 0x8ed8...7c2f — Yes, $500
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $333 (48% win rate)
- 0x54a7...881b — No, $321 (94% win rate)
- 0x65b7...ee5d — Yes, $200
