Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $12,619.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

3-wallet geopolitical momentum

Three wallets piled into Yes within minutes as the market jumped 24 points in a high-volume geopolitical contract, signaling coordinated momentum despite mixed wallet quality.

  • Three wallets bought Yes at the same time for $8.9k total as the market jumped about 24 points in a day
  • This is a geopolitics market where fast repricing can matter, and one buyer is already sitting on a big mark-to-market gain from 52¢ to 72¢
  • One wallet flipped from a previously closed No position into Yes, which suggests a thesis change rather than routine profit-taking

$8,919 on Yes

93% win-rate bettor

A proven sharp wallet with a 93% win rate bought Yes at 56¢ just before a fast move to 60%, making this a credible follow despite modest size.

  • This bettor wins 93% of their trades across 808 resolved markets and is up $56.8k
  • They bought Yes at 56¢ before the market quickly jumped to 60% in about 2 minutes
  • Entry at 56¢ suggests they saw value before a major news-driven repricing

$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

Profitable geopolitical grinder

A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a strong 72% win rate and $222k profit is buying No in a moderately thin geopolitics market, making this a credible thesis worth surfacing despite the modest ticket size.

  • This bettor has won 72% of 1,148 resolved trades and is up $222k lifetime.
  • They trade across 311 markets and 136 events, which suggests a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
  • Bought No at 68¢ in a market with only about $5.7k recent volume, showing clear conviction in a thinner market.

$1,700 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%

Top Holders

  1. 0x8454...331a Outcome 74705943, $50,000 (93% win rate)
  2. 0x9e83...9394 Outcome 74705943, $40,000
  3. 0x9648...6825 Outcome 74705943, $31,713 (69% win rate)
  4. 0xfc2f...10c7 Outcome 74705943, $14,703 (84% win rate)
  5. 0xbef5...206d Outcome 74705943, $12,972
  6. 0x7494...680d Outcome 74705943, $7,510 (92% win rate)
  7. 0xd426...334a Outcome 74705943, $5,506 (40% win rate)
  8. 0x9ca1...13b5 Outcome 74705943, $2,325 (58% win rate)
  9. 0x1851...ae47 Outcome 74705943, $2,271
  10. 0x7ea7...79ac Outcome 74705943, $1,142

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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?

ResolvedUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?$12,619 tracked3 signalsPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopolitics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?

43d ago

$8,919 on Yes at 67¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?

43d ago

$2,000 on Yes at 56¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?

45d ago

$1,700 on No at 68¢

Related Theses