US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether official representatives of the United States and Iran will hold a direct diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026. It resolves to Yes only if an authorized, deliberate in-person or direct meeting on US-Iran relations occurs before the deadline; indirect contacts do not count. PolySpotter currently tracks $2,658 in smart money on this market, with 1 recent smart money signal.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,658.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

88% win-rate macro bettor

A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with an 88% win rate and $1.13M in profits made a sizable directional bet on No in a geopolitics market, despite paying above the current market price.

  • This bettor wins 88% of their resolved trades and is up $1.13M lifetime
  • They trade across 136 markets in 84 events, which suggests a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
  • They bought No at 80¢ in a geopolitics market now trading 74¢, showing strong conviction even after a sharp move

$2,658 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

Top Holders

  1. 0xbf4d...33ed No, $5,842 (73% win rate)
  2. 0x5109...5e9c Yes, $4,704 (40% win rate)
  3. 0xde7b...5f4b No, $4,388 (88% win rate)
  4. 0xfc2f...10c7 Yes, $4,049 (88% win rate)
  5. 0x853c...bd03 No, $3,375 (50% win rate)
  6. 0x145a...5e86 Yes, $2,933
  7. 0xd426...334a Yes, $2,911 (35% win rate)
  8. 0x35bb...009b No, $2,894 (74% win rate)
  9. 0x77b0...ba0b No, $2,435 (56% win rate)
  10. 0xd8d5...8935 No, $2,291 (75% win rate)

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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?

1d$2,658 tracked1 signalPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopolitics
Yes
17¢
No
84¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
86¢
73¢
60¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?

2h ago

$2,658 on No at 80¢

80¢84¢4¢

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