Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?

10 smart money signals detected, totaling $59,757.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

90% win-rate event trader

A bettor with a 90% win rate is making a sizable event-wide thesis bet on No in a geopolitics market after already trading 3 related markets in the same event.

  • This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades across 175 bets.
  • They have put $22,010 across 3 related US-Iran markets, pointing to a clear event-wide thesis.
  • This buy came at 89¢ in a fast-moving market, showing conviction that no official meeting happens by April 23.

$5,340 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%

90% winner event thesis

A bettor with a 90% win rate is pressing the same event thesis across 3 related markets, adding a meaningful NO position after a major price collapse.

  • This bettor wins 90% of their resolved trades across 175 markets.
  • They put $11.0k across 3 related markets, which points to a coordinated event view rather than a one-off bet.
  • They bought No at 87¢ after this market fell 72.5% in a day, suggesting conviction even after the move.

$3,233 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%

86% win-rate thesis trader

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 86% win rate is taking a fresh high-conviction No position after previously closing the opposite side, signaling a strong updated thesis.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $403k lifetime.
  • They trade related markets consistently: 65 markets across 32 events with the same 86% hit rate.
  • This is a fresh No bet at 88¢ after closing an earlier Yes position, showing a clear change in view rather than routine profit-taking.

$3,520 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

92% win-rate bettor

A wallet with a 92% win rate and strong edge is making a fresh $4.6k buy on No after a sharp market move, which is worth surfacing despite the trade being in a liquid market.

  • This bettor wins 92% of their trades and has beat the odds across 51 resolved markets
  • They're buying No at 87¢ after this market dropped 65.5 points in a day, showing conviction even after a big repricing
  • The bet is sizable at $4.6k and fits a broader thesis across 2 related markets

$4,614 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

Profitable new wallet betting No

A 3-day-old wallet with repeat large bets and early profits is pressing a fresh No position after a major price swing, suggesting conviction worth watching despite a limited resolved track record.

  • This 3-day-old wallet has already made 9 positions and is up $1.7k, an unusually strong start for a new account.
  • They bought No at 87¢ after the market crashed 66.5% in a day, showing conviction that talks still will not happen.
  • The bettor has put $5.1k across 3 related markets, pointing to a broader event thesis rather than a one-off punt.

$1,950 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Profitable trio buying the dip

Three profitable, experienced wallets all added bullish exposure to Yes after a sharp 1-day collapse, including two selling No into a now 86% No market across a broader 5-market Iran thesis.

  • Three profitable wallets all lined up on the same side, putting $6.7k behind Yes while the market priced it at just 14% to 24%.
  • Two of the wallets had already traded this market and re-entered by selling No after earlier positions were closed, which points to renewed conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
  • This flow fits a broader cross-market Iran thesis: one linked pattern spans 5 related markets with a 75% win rate and $19.2k deployed.

$6,731 on Yes

3-wallet geopolitics cluster

Three profitable wallets aligned across five related markets all sold No here, which converts to buying Yes into a huge volume-driven repricing on a major geopolitics market.

  • Three profitable wallets lined up on the same thesis across five related markets, with $7.8k on this leg and $19.2k across the event.
  • They sold No around 68-77¢, which means they were effectively buying Yes at 23-32¢ before the market jumped to 24-25¢.
  • This is a real geopolitics market with a 10.3x volume spike and a 60.5-point one-day move, so coordinated flow here is more worth tracking than routine whale activity.

$7,847 on Yes

3 proven traders piling into No

Three experienced cross-market traders all sold Yes after a sharp 40-point drop, which translates to coordinated buying of No around 56-57¢ in a politically relevant market.

  • Three profitable traders all took the same side within 10 minutes, effectively buying No around 56-57¢.
  • One wallet wins 71% of bets, and the other two have each made six-figure profits across more than 1,000 resolved markets.
  • This is fresh positioning after they already exited older Yes bets, and it follows a 40-point one-day move in a news-driven market.

$4,581 on No

8-wallet geopolitics pile-in

Eight wallets with generally strong profitable histories piled into No for over $20.7k across this geopolitics market as volume exploded and the price moved sharply, signaling coordinated conviction worth watching.

  • Eight wallets bet the same way in minutes, putting $20.7k on No as the market jumped 16.5 points.
  • Several of these wallets have strong records, including bettors winning 82%, 87%, and 74% of resolved trades.
  • The market saw a 26.9x volume spike, and entries from 63¢ to 79¢ suggest they were comfortable buying even after the move.

$20,731 on No

74% winner buys NO

A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a 74% win rate is taking the No side at 29¢ in a geopolitics market, making this a credible thesis trade worth watching despite the modest size.

  • This bettor has won 236 of 318 resolved trades and is up about $230k lifetime.
  • They trade across related event markets at scale — 108 markets across 70 events with $5.5M deployed.
  • Bought No at 29¢ while the market prices Yes at 70%, implying they see the meeting as less likely than consensus.

$1,209 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Top Holders

  1. 0x6139...6b7a Outcome 14760637, $57,443 (70% win rate)
  2. 0x9648...6825 Outcome 14760637, $46,151 (69% win rate)
  3. 0x1d16...e798 Outcome 14760637, $11,559 (8% win rate)
  4. 0x23c9...7095 Outcome 14760637, $9,080
  5. 0x15fd...cc95 Outcome 14760637, $6,403 (100% win rate)
  6. 0x4a2b...af20 Outcome 14760637, $6,000 (45% win rate)
  7. 0x9f9e...4c57 Outcome 14760637, $5,334 (80% win rate)
  8. 0xbb8e...b243 Outcome 14760637, $5,105 (69% win rate)
  9. 0xa510...1f80 Outcome 14760637, $4,866
  10. 0x01c9...6dea Outcome 14760637, $4,000

Related Theses

Crude stays range-bound

Covers 9 related markets

Iran closes airspace late May

Covers 6 related markets

Covers 6 related markets

No US-Iran talks by June

Covers 9 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 7 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

US-Iran deal in late May

Covers 9 related markets

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?

ResolvedUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?$59,757 tracked10 signalsPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopolitics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?

44d ago

$5,340 on No at 89¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?

44d ago

$3,233 on No at 87¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?

44d ago

$3,520 on No at 88¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?

44d ago

$4,614 on No at 87¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?

44d ago

$1,950 on No at 87¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?

45d ago

$6,731 on Yes at 24¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?

45d ago

$7,847 on Yes at 27¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?

45d ago

$4,581 on No at 56¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?

45d ago

$20,731 on No at 74¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?

45d ago

$1,209 on No at 29¢

Related Theses