Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?
10 smart money signals detected, totaling $59,757.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
90% win-rate event trader
A bettor with a 90% win rate is making a sizable event-wide thesis bet on No in a geopolitics market after already trading 3 related markets in the same event.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades across 175 bets.
- They have put $22,010 across 3 related US-Iran markets, pointing to a clear event-wide thesis.
- This buy came at 89¢ in a fast-moving market, showing conviction that no official meeting happens by April 23.
$5,340 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
90% winner event thesis
A bettor with a 90% win rate is pressing the same event thesis across 3 related markets, adding a meaningful NO position after a major price collapse.
- This bettor wins 90% of their resolved trades across 175 markets.
- They put $11.0k across 3 related markets, which points to a coordinated event view rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought No at 87¢ after this market fell 72.5% in a day, suggesting conviction even after the move.
$3,233 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
86% win-rate thesis trader
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 86% win rate is taking a fresh high-conviction No position after previously closing the opposite side, signaling a strong updated thesis.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $403k lifetime.
- They trade related markets consistently: 65 markets across 32 events with the same 86% hit rate.
- This is a fresh No bet at 88¢ after closing an earlier Yes position, showing a clear change in view rather than routine profit-taking.
$3,520 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
92% win-rate bettor
A wallet with a 92% win rate and strong edge is making a fresh $4.6k buy on No after a sharp market move, which is worth surfacing despite the trade being in a liquid market.
- This bettor wins 92% of their trades and has beat the odds across 51 resolved markets
- They're buying No at 87¢ after this market dropped 65.5 points in a day, showing conviction even after a big repricing
- The bet is sizable at $4.6k and fits a broader thesis across 2 related markets
$4,614 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
Profitable new wallet betting No
A 3-day-old wallet with repeat large bets and early profits is pressing a fresh No position after a major price swing, suggesting conviction worth watching despite a limited resolved track record.
- This 3-day-old wallet has already made 9 positions and is up $1.7k, an unusually strong start for a new account.
- They bought No at 87¢ after the market crashed 66.5% in a day, showing conviction that talks still will not happen.
- The bettor has put $5.1k across 3 related markets, pointing to a broader event thesis rather than a one-off punt.
$1,950 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable trio buying the dip
Three profitable, experienced wallets all added bullish exposure to Yes after a sharp 1-day collapse, including two selling No into a now 86% No market across a broader 5-market Iran thesis.
- Three profitable wallets all lined up on the same side, putting $6.7k behind Yes while the market priced it at just 14% to 24%.
- Two of the wallets had already traded this market and re-entered by selling No after earlier positions were closed, which points to renewed conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
- This flow fits a broader cross-market Iran thesis: one linked pattern spans 5 related markets with a 75% win rate and $19.2k deployed.
$6,731 on Yes
3-wallet geopolitics cluster
Three profitable wallets aligned across five related markets all sold No here, which converts to buying Yes into a huge volume-driven repricing on a major geopolitics market.
- Three profitable wallets lined up on the same thesis across five related markets, with $7.8k on this leg and $19.2k across the event.
- They sold No around 68-77¢, which means they were effectively buying Yes at 23-32¢ before the market jumped to 24-25¢.
- This is a real geopolitics market with a 10.3x volume spike and a 60.5-point one-day move, so coordinated flow here is more worth tracking than routine whale activity.
$7,847 on Yes
3 proven traders piling into No
Three experienced cross-market traders all sold Yes after a sharp 40-point drop, which translates to coordinated buying of No around 56-57¢ in a politically relevant market.
- Three profitable traders all took the same side within 10 minutes, effectively buying No around 56-57¢.
- One wallet wins 71% of bets, and the other two have each made six-figure profits across more than 1,000 resolved markets.
- This is fresh positioning after they already exited older Yes bets, and it follows a 40-point one-day move in a news-driven market.
$4,581 on No
8-wallet geopolitics pile-in
Eight wallets with generally strong profitable histories piled into No for over $20.7k across this geopolitics market as volume exploded and the price moved sharply, signaling coordinated conviction worth watching.
- Eight wallets bet the same way in minutes, putting $20.7k on No as the market jumped 16.5 points.
- Several of these wallets have strong records, including bettors winning 82%, 87%, and 74% of resolved trades.
- The market saw a 26.9x volume spike, and entries from 63¢ to 79¢ suggest they were comfortable buying even after the move.
$20,731 on No
74% winner buys NO
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a 74% win rate is taking the No side at 29¢ in a geopolitics market, making this a credible thesis trade worth watching despite the modest size.
- This bettor has won 236 of 318 resolved trades and is up about $230k lifetime.
- They trade across related event markets at scale — 108 markets across 70 events with $5.5M deployed.
- Bought No at 29¢ while the market prices Yes at 70%, implying they see the meeting as less likely than consensus.
$1,209 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Top Holders
- 0x6139...6b7a — Outcome 14760637, $57,443 (70% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 14760637, $46,151 (69% win rate)
- 0x1d16...e798 — Outcome 14760637, $11,559 (8% win rate)
- 0x23c9...7095 — Outcome 14760637, $9,080
- 0x15fd...cc95 — Outcome 14760637, $6,403 (100% win rate)
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 14760637, $6,000 (45% win rate)
- 0x9f9e...4c57 — Outcome 14760637, $5,334 (80% win rate)
- 0xbb8e...b243 — Outcome 14760637, $5,105 (69% win rate)
- 0xa510...1f80 — Outcome 14760637, $4,866
- 0x01c9...6dea — Outcome 14760637, $4,000
Related Theses
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Iran closes airspace late May
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No US-Iran talks by June
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US-Iran deal in late May
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