US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?
This Polymarket tracks whether representatives of the United States and Iran will hold an official diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026. The market resolves to Yes only if authorized officials from both governments meet directly in an official diplomatic capacity before the deadline; indirect talks do not count. Recent smart money activity appears cautious, with sharp wallets leaning toward No.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $17,559.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
3 proven traders piling into No
Three experienced cross-market traders all sold Yes after a sharp 40-point drop, which translates to coordinated buying of No around 56-57¢ in a politically relevant market.
- Three profitable traders all took the same side within 10 minutes, effectively buying No around 56-57¢.
- One wallet wins 71% of bets, and the other two have each made six-figure profits across more than 1,000 resolved markets.
- This is fresh positioning after they already exited older Yes bets, and it follows a 40-point one-day move in a news-driven market.
$4,581 on No
4-wallet geopolitics cluster
Four wallets with decent-to-strong cross-market track records piled into No during a sharp volume surge, led by a 74% win-rate trader re-entering as this geopolitics market repriced hard.
- Four wallets bought No for $11.8k in a tight window while market volume jumped 13.5x.
- The lead wallet wins 74% of resolved bets across 318 markets and is up $225k lifetime.
- They bought No around 43-51¢ after a 34-point one-day swing, suggesting conviction that the move went too far.
$11,768 on No
74% winner buys NO
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a 74% win rate is taking the No side at 29¢ in a geopolitics market, making this a credible thesis trade worth watching despite the modest size.
- This bettor has won 236 of 318 resolved trades and is up about $230k lifetime.
- They trade across related event markets at scale — 108 markets across 70 events with $5.5M deployed.
- Bought No at 29¢ while the market prices Yes at 70%, implying they see the meeting as less likely than consensus.
$1,209 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%
Top Holders
- 0x162f...798d — Yes, $24,904 (71% win rate)
- 0x7d56...4950 — No, $14,772
- 0xbacd...ab35 — Yes, $13,313 (48% win rate)
- 0x8e5c...a68a — No, $11,199 (74% win rate)
- 0x35bb...009b — No, $10,283 (74% win rate)
- 0x55db...2031 — No, $5,818 (56% win rate)
- 0x6139...6b7a — Yes, $5,779 (70% win rate)
- 0xbb8e...b243 — Yes, $5,105 (69% win rate)
- 0x9ca1...13b5 — No, $5,000 (57% win rate)
- 0xdf17...97d1 — Yes, $4,916 (51% win rate)
