Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
22 smart money signals detected, totaling $61,969.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
Profitable geopolitical thesis trader
A highly profitable wallet with nearly $1.4M in P&L is making a fresh No bet as part of a broader multi-market geopolitical thesis, which is notable despite the modest single-trade size.
- This wallet is up about $1.38M overall and has traded more than 1,100 resolved markets.
- They are betting across 3 to 5 related Iran markets at once, suggesting a coordinated event view rather than a one-off punt.
- This is a fresh No buy at 90¢ in a market that just dropped 17 points in a day, showing they still see little chance of a meeting.
$2,431 on No | Wallet win rate: 48%
90% win-rate thesis trader
A high-accuracy cross-market trader with a 90% win rate is extending a consistent thesis by buying No at 87¢ in this US-Iran diplomacy market.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades across 175 markets and is putting the same event thesis on in 3 related markets.
- They bought No at 87¢ even after a 12.5-point move in the last day, showing confidence that no official meeting happens by April 24.
- The market is liquid and active, so this looks more like a sharp trader expressing a view than a random whale punt.
$2,049 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
Proven geopolitical grinder
A highly active and profitable cross-market trader with 924 resolved bets bought No at 85¢ in a fast-moving geopolitics market, making this a credible thesis trade worth watching despite modest size.
- This bettor has 924 resolved trades, wins 66% of them, and is up about $244k lifetime.
- They trade related markets repeatedly across 244 events, which suggests a structured event-driven approach rather than a random one-off bet.
- They bought No at 85¢ after this market dropped 39 points in a day, backing the view that a meeting by April 24 is still unlikely.
$1,063 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
85% win-rate event trader
A proven high-win-rate trader with nearly $395k in profit is buying No after a huge one-day price swing, while also positioning across five related markets in the same event.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up about $395k lifetime.
- They have traded 69 markets across 34 events, including 5 related markets here for nearly $17k total.
- They bought No at 87¢ after this market fell 57 points in a day, showing a clear directional view despite the move.
$1,131 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
85% winner, event thesis
A high-win-rate wallet with a large resolved history is expressing a cross-market thesis across five related markets, and this trade converts to a fresh buy on Yes at an attractive 11¢ entry.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades across 194 markets and is up nearly $395k.
- They have put $18k across 5 related markets in the same event, which suggests a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- This sale of No at 89¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 11¢, close to the current ask in a market that just moved sharply.
$2,225 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Proven geopolitical thesis trader
A highly active, profitable cross-market trader with 919 resolved bets bought No at 88¢ in a fast-moving geopolitics market, making this a credible thesis trade worth watching.
- This bettor has 919 resolved bets, wins 66% of the time, and is up $221k lifetime.
- They trade related markets repeatedly across events at scale, with over $2.0M tracked across 337 markets.
- They bought No at 88¢ while the market still implies an 11% chance of a meeting, suggesting they see even that remaining chance as too high.
$1,259 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
90% winner, event thesis
A proven 90% win-rate trader is expressing the same thesis across 3 related Iran event markets, adding a modest but clear directional bet into a fast-moving news market.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades across 175 markets
- They put nearly $27.9k across 3 related Iran markets, showing a coordinated event view
- This trade bought No at 85¢ while the market was repricing hard, with odds down 76.5 points in a day
$2,770 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
Sharp cluster buying Yes
Three wallets coordinated into Yes around 17-19¢, including one high-volume bettor with an 85% win rate and a broad cross-market track record, making this a credible thesis trade rather than random flow.
- One wallet wins 85% of its resolved bets and is up about $395k, giving this cluster real credibility.
- Three wallets put about $5.3k on Yes around 17-19¢ across this market and four related markets, suggesting a broader event thesis.
- One seller was closing an older No position, so the actionable signal is still fresh buying of Yes near 18¢.
$5,270 on Yes
85% win-rate thesis trader
A highly profitable 85% win-rate trader with nearly $400k P&L is expressing a repeat cross-market thesis here by effectively buying Yes at 17¢ after a major one-day price collapse.
- This bettor wins 85% of their trades and is up about $395k across 192 resolved markets.
- They trade related markets repeatedly — 68 markets across 34 events — which suggests a deliberate event thesis, not a random punt.
- This sale of No at 83¢ is effectively a buy of Yes at 17¢, right after a 73.5-point one-day drop.
$1,660 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
86% winner bets event NO
A highly profitable cross-market trader with an 86% win rate is buying No across this event, adding a credible directional signal despite the modest trade size.
- This bettor wins 86% of their trades and is up about $403k lifetime.
- They have bet 65 markets across 32 related events, which suggests a repeatable event-trading edge.
- They bought No at 83¢ while No now sits around 82¢, reinforcing a consistent view across this event.
$1,162 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
