US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?

This Polymarket tracks whether official representatives of the United States and Iran will hold a direct diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026. It resolves to Yes only if an authorized, deliberate meeting on US-Iran relations takes place before the deadline; indirect contacts do not count. Traders are currently split, with recent smart money activity appearing on both the Yes and No sides.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,708.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Proven event trader buying Yes

Profitable high-volume event trader with nearly 1,150 resolved bets bought into a geopolitics market at 83¢ and is already marked up as part of a broad cross-market pattern.

  • This bettor has 1,148 resolved trades, wins 67% of them, and is up $65.7k lifetime
  • They put $3.7k into Yes at 83¢ and the market has already moved up to 88¢
  • They trade across many related events and markets, suggesting a repeatable news-driven process rather than a one-off bet

$3,708 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

Profitable macro trader buys NO

A highly active cross-market trader with a long profitable history made a large No bet that dominated this thin market's daily volume, making it a worthwhile signal despite only moderate composite strength.

  • This bettor has 628 resolved bets, a 60% win rate, and is up $177.6k overall
  • Their $2,000 buy made up 89% of this market's tracked daily volume, showing real conviction in a thin market
  • They bought No at 20¢, and the market has already moved to 24¢

$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 60%

Top Holders

  1. 0xd44e...67e2 No, $10,020 (60% win rate)
  2. 0x1521...f23e Yes, $5,000 (69% win rate)
  3. 0x9aeb...2729 Yes, $4,468 (67% win rate)
  4. 0xfd39...109d Yes, $1,967 (70% win rate)
  5. 0x06ac...79ec No, $1,000
  6. 0xca6e...8dfc No, $891
  7. 0x8633...a08d Yes, $872 (64% win rate)
  8. 0xd6dd...98ee Yes, $718
  9. 0x49ac...2f1e No, $695
  10. 0x6dce...4490 Yes, $500

Related Theses

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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?

2d$5,708 tracked2 signalsPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopolitics
Yes
91¢
No
10¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
92¢
84¢
75¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?

2h ago

$3,708 on Yes at 83¢

83¢91¢8¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?

6h ago

$2,000 on No at 20¢

20¢10¢10¢

Related Theses