Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?
22 smart money signals detected, totaling $61,969.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
Profitable geopolitical thesis trader
A highly profitable wallet with nearly $1.4M in P&L is making a fresh No bet as part of a broader multi-market geopolitical thesis, which is notable despite the modest single-trade size.
- This wallet is up about $1.38M overall and has traded more than 1,100 resolved markets.
- They are betting across 3 to 5 related Iran markets at once, suggesting a coordinated event view rather than a one-off punt.
- This is a fresh No buy at 90¢ in a market that just dropped 17 points in a day, showing they still see little chance of a meeting.
$2,431 on No | Wallet win rate: 48%
90% win-rate thesis trader
A high-accuracy cross-market trader with a 90% win rate is extending a consistent thesis by buying No at 87¢ in this US-Iran diplomacy market.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades across 175 markets and is putting the same event thesis on in 3 related markets.
- They bought No at 87¢ even after a 12.5-point move in the last day, showing confidence that no official meeting happens by April 24.
- The market is liquid and active, so this looks more like a sharp trader expressing a view than a random whale punt.
$2,049 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
Proven geopolitical grinder
A highly active and profitable cross-market trader with 924 resolved bets bought No at 85¢ in a fast-moving geopolitics market, making this a credible thesis trade worth watching despite modest size.
- This bettor has 924 resolved trades, wins 66% of them, and is up about $244k lifetime.
- They trade related markets repeatedly across 244 events, which suggests a structured event-driven approach rather than a random one-off bet.
- They bought No at 85¢ after this market dropped 39 points in a day, backing the view that a meeting by April 24 is still unlikely.
$1,063 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
85% win-rate event trader
A proven high-win-rate trader with nearly $395k in profit is buying No after a huge one-day price swing, while also positioning across five related markets in the same event.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up about $395k lifetime.
- They have traded 69 markets across 34 events, including 5 related markets here for nearly $17k total.
- They bought No at 87¢ after this market fell 57 points in a day, showing a clear directional view despite the move.
$1,131 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
85% winner, event thesis
A high-win-rate wallet with a large resolved history is expressing a cross-market thesis across five related markets, and this trade converts to a fresh buy on Yes at an attractive 11¢ entry.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades across 194 markets and is up nearly $395k.
- They have put $18k across 5 related markets in the same event, which suggests a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- This sale of No at 89¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 11¢, close to the current ask in a market that just moved sharply.
$2,225 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Proven geopolitical thesis trader
A highly active, profitable cross-market trader with 919 resolved bets bought No at 88¢ in a fast-moving geopolitics market, making this a credible thesis trade worth watching.
- This bettor has 919 resolved bets, wins 66% of the time, and is up $221k lifetime.
- They trade related markets repeatedly across events at scale, with over $2.0M tracked across 337 markets.
- They bought No at 88¢ while the market still implies an 11% chance of a meeting, suggesting they see even that remaining chance as too high.
$1,259 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
90% winner, event thesis
A proven 90% win-rate trader is expressing the same thesis across 3 related Iran event markets, adding a modest but clear directional bet into a fast-moving news market.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades across 175 markets
- They put nearly $27.9k across 3 related Iran markets, showing a coordinated event view
- This trade bought No at 85¢ while the market was repricing hard, with odds down 76.5 points in a day
$2,770 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
Sharp cluster buying Yes
Three wallets coordinated into Yes around 17-19¢, including one high-volume bettor with an 85% win rate and a broad cross-market track record, making this a credible thesis trade rather than random flow.
- One wallet wins 85% of its resolved bets and is up about $395k, giving this cluster real credibility.
- Three wallets put about $5.3k on Yes around 17-19¢ across this market and four related markets, suggesting a broader event thesis.
- One seller was closing an older No position, so the actionable signal is still fresh buying of Yes near 18¢.
$5,270 on Yes
85% win-rate thesis trader
A highly profitable 85% win-rate trader with nearly $400k P&L is expressing a repeat cross-market thesis here by effectively buying Yes at 17¢ after a major one-day price collapse.
- This bettor wins 85% of their trades and is up about $395k across 192 resolved markets.
- They trade related markets repeatedly — 68 markets across 34 events — which suggests a deliberate event thesis, not a random punt.
- This sale of No at 83¢ is effectively a buy of Yes at 17¢, right after a 73.5-point one-day drop.
$1,660 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
86% winner bets event NO
A highly profitable cross-market trader with an 86% win rate is buying No across this event, adding a credible directional signal despite the modest trade size.
- This bettor wins 86% of their trades and is up about $403k lifetime.
- They have bet 65 markets across 32 related events, which suggests a repeatable event-trading edge.
- They bought No at 83¢ while No now sits around 82¢, reinforcing a consistent view across this event.
$1,162 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Top Holders
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 23646977, $141,073 (82% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 23646977, $50,023 (69% win rate)
- 0x9f9e...4c57 — Outcome 23646977, $25,034 (80% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Outcome 23646977, $23,911 (80% win rate)
- 0x6139...6b7a — Outcome 23646977, $22,412 (70% win rate)
- 0x7e3c...0505 — Outcome 23646977, $12,722
- 0x134a...9e42 — Outcome 23646977, $6,627 (88% win rate)
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 23646977, $6,000 (45% win rate)
- 0xf2e7...843e — Outcome 23646977, $5,005
- 0x1851...ae47 — Outcome 23646977, $4,000
