US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether official representatives of the United States and Iran will hold a direct diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026. It resolves Yes only if authorized government officials from both sides meet in an official diplomatic capacity before the deadline; indirect contacts or unofficial discussions do not count. Traders use this market to gauge the odds of a formal US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,341.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Proven geopolitics grinder

A highly active cross-market trader with a strong long-term record bought No at 73¢ in a geopolitics market, making this a modest but credible signal worth surfacing.

  • This bettor has won 539 of 794 resolved trades and is up about $729k lifetime
  • They trade across many related events — 68 events and 97 markets tracked so far
  • They bought No at 73¢ in a live geopolitics market, showing a clear view despite recent price movement

$2,341 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $5,937 (70% win rate)
  2. 0xecaa...77a9 No, $3,206 (68% win rate)
  3. 0xfc2f...10c7 No, $1,906 (85% win rate)
  4. 0xcf19...6402 Yes, $1,698 (57% win rate)
  5. 0x25db...28de Yes, $1,683 (51% win rate)
  6. 0x732d...201a Yes, $1,644 (41% win rate)
  7. 0x134a...9e42 Yes, $1,310 (88% win rate)
  8. 0x7de0...3b9c No, $1,301
  9. 0x61e7...6e8b No, $1,233 (50% win rate)
  10. 0x09a5...caaa No, $1,168 (100% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 3 related markets

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Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 2 related markets

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?

2d$2,341 tracked1 signalPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopolitics
Yes
28¢
No
72¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
79¢
69¢
60¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?

2h ago

$2,341 on No at 73¢

73¢72¢1¢

Related Theses

US-Iran Diplomatic Meeting Odds on Polymarket | PolySpotter