Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?
21 smart money signals detected, totaling $130,962.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
New whale buying NO
A new wallet with repeat large bets and early profits just put $7.5k into No on a headline-sensitive geopolitics market, helping push the price sharply higher.
- This new wallet has already been flagged twice, has 4 positions, and is up $1.4k so far
- They just put $7.5k into No at 89¢ on a geopolitics market and the price jumped fast right after
- The market is liquid enough to matter, so this looks more like conviction on the thesis than a random punt
$7,527 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
86% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 86% win rate and $1.26M P&L is taking a fresh Yes position in a geopolitics market at 16¢.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $1.26M lifetime.
- They have traded 153 related markets across 97 events, suggesting a repeatable event-driven edge.
- Bought Yes at 16¢, a low entry that implies they see the market as meaningfully underpriced.
$2,199 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
90% win-rate event trader
A 90% win-rate wallet is making a coordinated cross-market geopolitical bet, buying No at 89¢ on a liquid US-Iran meeting market after a fast price move.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades across 175 bets and is trading 7 related markets in the same event
- They bought No at 89¢, implying they see the chance of a meeting staying below 11%
- The move fits a broader $57k cross-market thesis, which is more meaningful than a one-off bet
$1,765 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
90% win-rate thesis trader
A high-accuracy cross-market trader with a 90% win rate is adding to a 7-market geopolitical thesis by buying No after a sharp move, making this a credible signal worth surfacing.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades across 175 bets and is betting across 7 related markets in the same event.
- They bought No at 78¢ right after a fast 16.5-point move, suggesting conviction that this diplomatic meeting still will not happen.
- The market is large and active, so this looks more like a sharp thesis bet than random activity in a thin market.
$7,779 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
85% win-rate event trader
A highly profitable wallet with an 85% win rate is trading across many related Iran event markets, and this sell converts into a fresh BUY No around 65¢ in a fast-moving news-sensitive market.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up about $415k across nearly 200 settled bets
- They have been trading 10 related markets in the same event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet
- This sale of Yes at 35¢ is equivalent to buying No at 65¢ in a market that is up 25 points today
$1,050 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
85% win-rate event specialist
A highly profitable 85% win-rate trader with over $400k in realized P&L is re-entering the Yes side as part of a much larger 10-market event thesis across this topic.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up about $410k lifetime.
- They have bet $66k across 10 related markets in this same event, which points to a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off punt.
- This is a fresh re-entry on Yes at 44¢ after closing an earlier position, with the market still near that level.
$1,412 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
82% win-rate thesis trader
Profitable wallet with an 82% win rate is expressing the same geopolitical thesis across three related markets, adding a notable $3.6k No position after a sharp move.
- This bettor wins 82% of their resolved trades and is up $15.3k overall
- They have put $16.6k across 3 related US-Iran markets, which points to a broader event thesis rather than a one-off bet
- They bought No at 55¢ after this market moved 33 points in a day, suggesting they still see the meeting as less likely than the market implies
$3,587 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
82% winner buying No
Profitable cross-market trader with an 82% win rate bought No aggressively into a major volume spike, and the market has already moved 10 points in their favor.
- This bettor wins 82% of their resolved markets and is up $15.3k overall.
- They bought No at 62¢ during a 34x volume spike, and the market is now 52¢ on No.
- The same wallet is betting across 3 related markets with about $20.4k total, suggesting a broader event thesis.
$7,378 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
85% win-rate event specialist
A proven 85% win-rate trader with strong cross-market event history is flipping into the Yes side here via a sell of No, making this a credible thesis-driven trade worth watching.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up about $410k lifetime.
- They have traded 8 markets tied to this same event for $61.7k total, which suggests a broader informed thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Selling No at 69¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 31¢, close to the current 32¢ market price.
$1,725 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
85% win-rate event trader
A proven high-win-rate trader with deep event-level history is rotating into the bullish side of this Iran diplomacy market via an effective Yes buy around 35¢.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up about $410k lifetime.
- They have traded 78 markets across 35 related events, suggesting a repeatable edge in news-driven markets.
- Their sell of No at 65¢ is effectively a buy of Yes at 35¢, well above the current 29¢ market price.
$1,170 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Top Holders
- 0x1437...acfe — Outcome 92682814, $53,382
- 0x5c90...79f4 — Outcome 92682814, $37,000 (33% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 92682814, $32,126 (69% win rate)
- 0x25db...28de — Outcome 92682814, $23,682 (51% win rate)
- 0xd519...932c — Outcome 92682814, $15,555 (18% win rate)
- 0x67f9...d241 — Outcome 92682814, $14,517 (68% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Outcome 92682814, $14,115 (80% win rate)
- 0xbb8e...b243 — Outcome 92682814, $10,791 (69% win rate)
- 0x8f7a...db40 — Outcome 92682814, $5,000 (77% win rate)
- 0x52f9...e1c7 — Outcome 92682814, $4,805 (58% win rate)
