Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

50 smart money signals detected, totaling $444,463.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

85% win-rate event specialist

A highly profitable 85% win-rate trader with a large cross-market track record is making a fresh bullish bet on a major geopolitics market after extensive positioning across the same event.

  • This bettor wins 85% of their resolved trades and is up $421k lifetime.
  • They have traded 12 markets tied to this event for $57k total, showing a strong repeatable thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • This sell of No at 89¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 11¢, a cheap entry if their geopolitical read is right.

$3,382 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

90% win-rate event specialist

A 90% win-rate wallet with a long cross-market history is adding a clear directional view in the US-Iran event by buying No at 90¢ after a major one-week repricing.

  • This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades across 175 bets and has traded 8 related markets in this event
  • They bought No at 90¢ after this market fell 67.5% in a week, reinforcing a strong event-wide view
  • The trade is nearly $5k, but it came in a deep market with over $560k in 24-hour volume, so the edge is the trader's track record rather than market impact

$4,906 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%

90% winner, event specialist

A 90% win-rate wallet with a long cross-market pattern just bought No at 89¢ in this US-Iran diplomacy market, extending a broader event thesis across 8 related markets.

  • This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades across 175 bets and has been active across 8 related markets in the same event
  • They just added a fresh $3.7k No position at 89¢, implying they view a diplomatic meeting by April 30 as very unlikely
  • The market has already fallen sharply this week, and this wallet appears to be pressing the same thesis across the whole event set

$3,662 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%

84% win-rate event specialist

A proven high-win-rate trader with broad cross-market event coverage is reopening a sizable No position on this geopolitics market after already trading both sides successfully, suggesting continued conviction that the current 12% Yes price is still too high.

  • This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up about $419k lifetime.
  • They have traded 12 markets in this same event and 84 markets across 35 related events, which points to a repeatable macro thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • They bought No at 84¢ and the market is already at 88¢, showing the position moved in their favor quickly.

$1,176 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

76% winner buying rebound

A historically profitable wallet with a 76% win rate is making a fresh cross-market geopolitical bet here by effectively buying Yes at 16¢ after tracking 9 related markets in the same event.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved markets across 83 bets and is active across 9 related markets in this event
  • The trade effectively buys Yes at 16¢ after a sharp selloff, suggesting they see the current odds as too low
  • This is a fresh position, not profit-taking, in a deep news-driven market with nearly $882k traded in the last 24 hours

$4,284 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%

Sharp cross-market thesis bettor

A proven 76% win-rate trader is reopening bullish exposure across a 9-market US-Iran thesis, buying the equivalent of Yes at 12¢ after a sharp selloff.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades across 83 markets and is betting across 9 related US-Iran markets.
  • This trade is effectively a buy of Yes at 12¢ after the market fell 57 points in a day and 71 points in a week.
  • The wallet had prior positions here but they were closed, so this looks like fresh conviction rather than routine profit-taking.

$3,092 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%

Pro cross-market trader buys No

A highly active and profitable cross-market trader with nearly 900 resolved bets bought No at 84¢ after this market collapsed, making this a credible thesis-driven follow despite only moderate alert score.

  • This bettor has 898 resolved bets, wins 64% of the time, and is up $1.59M lifetime
  • They trade across many related markets — 59 markets over 41 events — which suggests a repeatable event-driven process
  • They bought No at 84¢ after the market fell 49% in a day, backing the view that a US-Iran meeting still remains unlikely

$5,512 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%

Profitable macro trader buys NO

A highly active and profitable cross-market trader with $1.59M lifetime profit bought a large No position after this market collapsed, suggesting conviction that recent optimism is overdone.

  • This bettor has won 571 of 898 resolved trades and is up $1.59M lifetime
  • They put $18.5k into No at 83¢ after the market fell 45 points in a day
  • The market is liquid, so this looks like a deliberate thesis bet from a trader active across 41 events

$18,452 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%

Sharp cross-market bettor

A high-win-rate wallet with a strong cross-market track record is taking a fresh bearish stance after previously exiting the opposite side, following a major collapse in this market's Yes price.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and has been active across 5 related markets with $88k deployed.
  • This is a fresh No position after they already closed a much larger Yes trade on this market, showing a clear thesis change.
  • They bought No at 83¢ after Yes crashed about 47 points in a day, backing the new direction with the market already moving their way.

$1,243 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

87% winner flips to No

A proven 87% winner flipped into a fresh $16.5k No position across this event after a major market repricing, suggesting a coordinated cross-market thesis worth tracking.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $15.7k lifetime
  • They just put $16.5k into No at 83¢ after this market dropped 51% in a day
  • They have also traded 5 related markets in the same event with over $103k total, pointing to a broader thesis

$16,520 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Outcome 11422789, $172,811 (69% win rate)
  2. 0xa771...42d1 Outcome 11422789, $58,677 (71% win rate)
  3. 0x25db...28de Outcome 11422789, $33,740 (53% win rate)
  4. 0xc658...b784 Outcome 11422789, $32,313 (68% win rate)
  5. 0xd519...932c Outcome 11422789, $16,667 (18% win rate)
  6. 0xc266...2f2f Outcome 11422789, $14,469 (33% win rate)
  7. 0xde7b...5f4b Outcome 11422789, $14,294 (81% win rate)
  8. 0xabb4...7b57 Outcome 11422789, $10,700 (83% win rate)
  9. 0x134a...9e42 Outcome 11422789, $9,566 (88% win rate)
  10. 0xa0b6...20fe Outcome 11422789, $5,000

Related Theses

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 7 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Covers 6 related markets

Covers 6 related markets

Iran deal lands late April

Covers 6 related markets

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

ResolvedUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?$444,463 tracked50 signalsPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopolitics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

35d ago

$3,382 on Yes at 11¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

35d ago

$4,906 on No at 90¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

35d ago

$3,662 on No at 89¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

35d ago

$1,176 on No at 84¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

36d ago

$4,284 on Yes at 16¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

36d ago

$3,092 on Yes at 12¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

36d ago

$5,512 on No at 84¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

36d ago

$18,452 on No at 83¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

36d ago

$1,243 on No at 83¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

36d ago

$16,520 on No at 83¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

36d ago

$1,000 on Yes at 20¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

36d ago

$3,213 on No at 70¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

36d ago

$1,660 on No at 83¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

36d ago

$1,006 on No at 83¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

36d ago

$69,016 on No at 73¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

36d ago

$26,555 on No at 83¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

36d ago

$11,830 on No at 81¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

37d ago

$1,560 on No at 78¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

37d ago

$2,151 on No at 75¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

37d ago

$3,960 on No at 76¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

37d ago

$6,198 on No at 75¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

37d ago

$17,757 on No at 78¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

37d ago

$2,190 on No at 73¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

37d ago

$3,506 on No at 70¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

37d ago

$18,702 on No at 73¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

37d ago

$54,429 on No at 72¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

37d ago

$1,034 on No at 58¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

37d ago

$2,249 on No at 46¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

37d ago

$1,045 on No at 43¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

37d ago

$4,282 on Yes at 67¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

37d ago

$21,859 on Yes at 67¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

37d ago

$7,432 on Yes at 64¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

37d ago

$13,928 on Yes at 67¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

37d ago

$6,495 on Yes at 70¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

37d ago

$3,956 on Yes at 67¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

38d ago

$2,040 on No at 68¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

38d ago

$5,084 on No at 68¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

38d ago

$7,500 on No at 69¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

38d ago

$10,000 on No at 71¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

37d ago

$7,608 on No at 33¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

38d ago

$1,500 on Yes at 26¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

38d ago

$7,999 on No at 84¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

38d ago

$22,033 on No at 69¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

36d ago

$6,983 on Yes at 16¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

38d ago

$1,320 on No at 66¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

39d ago

$1,026 on Yes at 43¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

39d ago

$1,599 on Yes at 42¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

39d ago

$1,000 on No at 50¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

37d ago

$17,733 on Yes at 67¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

39d ago

$1,800 on No at 45¢

Related Theses