US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether official representatives of the United States and Iran will hold a direct diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026. It resolves to Yes only if authorized officials from both governments meet in an official negotiating or diplomatic capacity before the deadline; indirect contacts do not count. PolySpotter tracks the latest market odds, smart money activity, and signals for this US-Iran prediction market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $4,491.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

97% win-rate macro bettor

A serial cross-market trader with a 97% win rate bought into a geopolitics market, making this wallet worth following despite the modest single-trade size.

  • This bettor wins 97% of resolved trades with $68k profit across nearly $1.44M invested.
  • They have traded 202 markets across 151 events, which suggests a repeatable process rather than a one-off bet.
  • They bought Yes at 90¢ in a real-world geopolitics market, signaling confidence even at a high implied probability.

$4,491 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 97%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $24,446 (70% win rate)
  2. 0xa771...42d1 No, $22,522 (67% win rate)
  3. 0xabb4...7b57 Yes, $12,400 (83% win rate)
  4. 0x77c8...bc8c No, $8,792 (29% win rate)
  5. 0xd286...2322 No, $8,018
  6. 0x682e...70bd No, $6,621
  7. 0x8c38...83d0 No, $6,000 (5% win rate)
  8. 0x8597...daee Yes, $5,929 (81% win rate)
  9. 0xdd08...5ee9 Yes, $5,000 (97% win rate)
  10. 0xefa1...ea5d No, $5,000

Related Theses

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

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Covers 1 related market

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

12d$4,491 tracked1 signalPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopolitics
Yes
94¢
No
6¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
95¢
81¢
68¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

14h ago

$4,491 on Yes at 90¢

90¢94¢4¢

Related Theses

US-Iran Diplomatic Meeting Odds by Apr. 2026 | PolySpotter