Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $444,463.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
85% win-rate event specialist
A highly profitable 85% win-rate trader with a large cross-market track record is making a fresh bullish bet on a major geopolitics market after extensive positioning across the same event.
- This bettor wins 85% of their resolved trades and is up $421k lifetime.
- They have traded 12 markets tied to this event for $57k total, showing a strong repeatable thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- This sell of No at 89¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 11¢, a cheap entry if their geopolitical read is right.
$3,382 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
90% win-rate event specialist
A 90% win-rate wallet with a long cross-market history is adding a clear directional view in the US-Iran event by buying No at 90¢ after a major one-week repricing.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades across 175 bets and has traded 8 related markets in this event
- They bought No at 90¢ after this market fell 67.5% in a week, reinforcing a strong event-wide view
- The trade is nearly $5k, but it came in a deep market with over $560k in 24-hour volume, so the edge is the trader's track record rather than market impact
$4,906 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
90% winner, event specialist
A 90% win-rate wallet with a long cross-market pattern just bought No at 89¢ in this US-Iran diplomacy market, extending a broader event thesis across 8 related markets.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades across 175 bets and has been active across 8 related markets in the same event
- They just added a fresh $3.7k No position at 89¢, implying they view a diplomatic meeting by April 30 as very unlikely
- The market has already fallen sharply this week, and this wallet appears to be pressing the same thesis across the whole event set
$3,662 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
84% win-rate event specialist
A proven high-win-rate trader with broad cross-market event coverage is reopening a sizable No position on this geopolitics market after already trading both sides successfully, suggesting continued conviction that the current 12% Yes price is still too high.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up about $419k lifetime.
- They have traded 12 markets in this same event and 84 markets across 35 related events, which points to a repeatable macro thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought No at 84¢ and the market is already at 88¢, showing the position moved in their favor quickly.
$1,176 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
76% winner buying rebound
A historically profitable wallet with a 76% win rate is making a fresh cross-market geopolitical bet here by effectively buying Yes at 16¢ after tracking 9 related markets in the same event.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved markets across 83 bets and is active across 9 related markets in this event
- The trade effectively buys Yes at 16¢ after a sharp selloff, suggesting they see the current odds as too low
- This is a fresh position, not profit-taking, in a deep news-driven market with nearly $882k traded in the last 24 hours
$4,284 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%
Sharp cross-market thesis bettor
A proven 76% win-rate trader is reopening bullish exposure across a 9-market US-Iran thesis, buying the equivalent of Yes at 12¢ after a sharp selloff.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades across 83 markets and is betting across 9 related US-Iran markets.
- This trade is effectively a buy of Yes at 12¢ after the market fell 57 points in a day and 71 points in a week.
- The wallet had prior positions here but they were closed, so this looks like fresh conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
$3,092 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%
Pro cross-market trader buys No
A highly active and profitable cross-market trader with nearly 900 resolved bets bought No at 84¢ after this market collapsed, making this a credible thesis-driven follow despite only moderate alert score.
- This bettor has 898 resolved bets, wins 64% of the time, and is up $1.59M lifetime
- They trade across many related markets — 59 markets over 41 events — which suggests a repeatable event-driven process
- They bought No at 84¢ after the market fell 49% in a day, backing the view that a US-Iran meeting still remains unlikely
$5,512 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Profitable macro trader buys NO
A highly active and profitable cross-market trader with $1.59M lifetime profit bought a large No position after this market collapsed, suggesting conviction that recent optimism is overdone.
- This bettor has won 571 of 898 resolved trades and is up $1.59M lifetime
- They put $18.5k into No at 83¢ after the market fell 45 points in a day
- The market is liquid, so this looks like a deliberate thesis bet from a trader active across 41 events
$18,452 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Sharp cross-market bettor
A high-win-rate wallet with a strong cross-market track record is taking a fresh bearish stance after previously exiting the opposite side, following a major collapse in this market's Yes price.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and has been active across 5 related markets with $88k deployed.
- This is a fresh No position after they already closed a much larger Yes trade on this market, showing a clear thesis change.
- They bought No at 83¢ after Yes crashed about 47 points in a day, backing the new direction with the market already moving their way.
$1,243 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
87% winner flips to No
A proven 87% winner flipped into a fresh $16.5k No position across this event after a major market repricing, suggesting a coordinated cross-market thesis worth tracking.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $15.7k lifetime
- They just put $16.5k into No at 83¢ after this market dropped 51% in a day
- They have also traded 5 related markets in the same event with over $103k total, pointing to a broader thesis
$16,520 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 11422789, $172,811 (69% win rate)
- 0xa771...42d1 — Outcome 11422789, $58,677 (71% win rate)
- 0x25db...28de — Outcome 11422789, $33,740 (53% win rate)
- 0xc658...b784 — Outcome 11422789, $32,313 (68% win rate)
- 0xd519...932c — Outcome 11422789, $16,667 (18% win rate)
- 0xc266...2f2f — Outcome 11422789, $14,469 (33% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Outcome 11422789, $14,294 (81% win rate)
- 0xabb4...7b57 — Outcome 11422789, $10,700 (83% win rate)
- 0x134a...9e42 — Outcome 11422789, $9,566 (88% win rate)
- 0xa0b6...20fe — Outcome 11422789, $5,000
Related Theses
Iran deal lands late April
Covers 6 related markets
