Part of: Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

This Polymarket market asks whether the next formal senior-level round of U.S.-Iran peace talks will begin by July 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. PolySpotter is tracking smart money activity on this market, including $3,133 in tracked smart money and recent Yes-side signals from profitable political traders.

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

19 smart money signals detected, totaling $46,905.

Categories: Politics, U.S. x Iran, Trump, Vance, Geopolitics, Iran, Peace Deal, US-Iran, Iran Ceasefire

Notable Trades

Profitable 78% bettor buying NO

A profitable high-volume bettor with a 78% resolved win rate bought $3.1k of No on a plausible geopolitics market despite only a weak low-activity signal.

  • This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up about $18k lifetime.
  • They put $3.1k on No at 84¢, adding conviction that no senior-level U.S.-Iran meeting happens by the deadline.
  • The market has already moved toward No, with Yes down 17.5 percentage points over the past day.

$3,133 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader effectively bought Yes while volume spiked and multiple wallets joined the same side.

  • This bettor has won 73% of 437 resolved trades and is up about $249k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 106 events with $8.7M deployed.
  • Market volume spiked 29x, and 4 wallets placed $4.5k on the same Yes side.

$4,507 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%

Profitable serial trader flips Yes

High composite alert with a profitable serial cross-market trader flipping into Yes amid a major volume spike, strong one-sided flow, and a 50-point price move.

  • This bettor has a long track record: 68% wins across 1,140 resolved bets and $55K in profit.
  • They flipped from No to Yes as the market surged, buying at 75¢ after closing a prior No position.
  • Four wallets are buying Yes together, with volume spiking 56x and the Yes price up about 51 points.

$2,004 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%

Profitable 78% bettor buying NO

A profitable high-volume bettor with a 78% resolved win rate bought $3.1k of No on a plausible geopolitics market despite only a weak low-activity signal.

  • This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up about $18k lifetime.
  • They put $3.1k on No at 84¢, adding conviction that no senior-level U.S.-Iran meeting happens by the deadline.
  • The market has already moved toward No, with Yes down 17.5 percentage points over the past day.

$1,873 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

Profitable serial trader flips Yes

High composite alert with a profitable serial cross-market trader flipping into Yes amid a major volume spike, strong one-sided flow, and a 50-point price move.

  • This bettor has a long track record: 68% wins across 1,140 resolved bets and $55K in profit.
  • They flipped from No to Yes as the market surged, buying at 75¢ after closing a prior No position.
  • Four wallets are buying Yes together, with volume spiking 56x and the Yes price up about 51 points.

$1,472 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader effectively bought Yes while volume spiked and multiple wallets joined the same side.

  • This bettor has won 73% of 437 resolved trades and is up about $249k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 106 events with $8.7M deployed.
  • Market volume spiked 29x, and 4 wallets placed $4.5k on the same Yes side.

$1,473 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%

86% serial event trader

A highly proven cross-market trader with an 86% record bought No at 67¢ before the market moved to 76¢, supported by a major volume spike.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades across 1,231 markets and is up $62K lifetime.
  • They bought No at 67¢ before it moved to 76¢, showing the market has already followed their direction.
  • Volume spiked 27x above normal, suggesting broader positioning around the same thesis.

$1,491 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader effectively bought Yes while volume spiked and multiple wallets joined the same side.

  • This bettor has won 73% of 437 resolved trades and is up about $249k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 106 events with $8.7M deployed.
  • Market volume spiked 29x, and 4 wallets placed $4.5k on the same Yes side.

$2,177 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%

Serial political traders buying Yes

Surface because multiple profitable high-volume political traders are effectively buying Yes amid a major pre-event volume surge, though there is meaningful opposing No flow.

  • Several experienced wallets are effectively buying Yes, including one up $248k across 437 resolved bets.
  • The market has seen a 11.7x volume spike and Yes is up 21.5 points over the past day.
  • This is not one-sided overall: a larger No-buying cluster also appeared, so the signal is strong but contested.

$5,364 on Yes

Profitable serial trader flips Yes

High composite alert with a profitable serial cross-market trader flipping into Yes amid a major volume spike, strong one-sided flow, and a 50-point price move.

  • This bettor has a long track record: 68% wins across 1,140 resolved bets and $55K in profit.
  • They flipped from No to Yes as the market surged, buying at 75¢ after closing a prior No position.
  • Four wallets are buying Yes together, with volume spiking 56x and the Yes price up about 51 points.

$1,822 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%

Top Holders

  1. 0x53e5...6177 Yes, $42,755 (44% win rate)
  2. 0x49e9...8f85 No, $19,012 (98% win rate)
  3. 0xde7b...5f4b No, $18,932 (79% win rate)
  4. 0xa06e...f56f Yes, $15,031
  5. 0x4478...02a4 Yes, $15,000 (58% win rate)
  6. 0x5e73...6697 No, $13,983 (68% win rate)
  7. 0x7447...a16d No, $10,936 (56% win rate)
  8. 0x0bfb...26a7 Yes, $8,688
  9. 0xe342...1f86 No, $8,355 (54% win rate)
  10. 0x9592...a7b8 Yes, $8,200 (93% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 4 related markets

Iran ceasefire collapses by June

Covers 6 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 6 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 7 related markets

Covers 7 related markets

Covers 5 related markets

Iran closes airspace late June

Covers 7 related markets

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

2dNext round of US-Iran peace talks by...?$46,905 tracked19 signalsPoliticsU.S. x IranTrumpVanceGeopoliticsIranPeace DealUS-IranIran Ceasefire
Yes
7¢
No
94¢

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
97¢
65¢
32¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

7h ago

$3,133 on No at 84¢

84¢94¢10¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

12h ago

$4,507 on Yes at 43¢

43¢7¢36¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

12h ago

$2,004 on Yes at 75¢

75¢7¢68¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

13h ago

$1,873 on No at 84¢

84¢94¢10¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

1d ago

$1,472 on Yes at 75¢

75¢7¢68¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

1d ago

$1,473 on Yes at 43¢

43¢7¢36¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

1d ago

$1,491 on No at 67¢

67¢94¢27¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

2d ago

$2,177 on Yes at 43¢

43¢7¢36¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

2d ago

$5,364 on Yes at 39¢

39¢7¢32¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

2d ago

$1,822 on Yes at 75¢

75¢7¢68¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

2d ago

$1,053 on Yes at 43¢

43¢7¢36¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

2d ago

$4,562 on No at 29¢

29¢94¢65¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

2d ago

$1,544 on Yes at 75¢

75¢7¢68¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

2d ago

$1,700 on Yes at 50¢

50¢7¢43¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

2d ago

$1,158 on Yes at 75¢

75¢7¢68¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

2d ago

$2,145 on Yes at 50¢

50¢7¢43¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

1d ago

$5,173 on No at 68¢

68¢94¢26¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

2d ago

$1,128 on No at 87¢

87¢94¢7¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

6d ago

$3,125 on No at 84¢

84¢94¢10¢

Related Theses