Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

37 smart money signals detected, totaling $130,507.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Peace Deal

Notable Trades

Profitable cross-market bettor

Proven profitable wallet with a 77% record is building a large cross-market US-Iran thesis and bought No on a thin diplomacy market.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up about $36.9K lifetime.
  • They have positioned across 13 related markets with about $122K total exposure, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis.
  • This $2K No buy is large relative to the market’s $8.2K daily volume.

$3,097 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%

87% serial cross-market winner

Sharp serial cross-market bettor with an 87% resolved win rate bought No on the US-Iran meeting market at 76¢ amid major one-day price movement.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $222K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 85 events with $3.6M in flagged activity.
  • They bought No at 76¢, and the market has already moved to 79¢ after a sharp one-day swing.

$3,016 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%

80% win-rate sharp

A highly profitable 80% win-rate wallet with extensive cross-market history bought No after a major move against Yes.

  • This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $3.86M lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 139 events with $5.6M in tracked volume.
  • They bought No at 59¢ after Yes fell 35.6% in a day, aligning with strong recent momentum.

$3,617 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

Profitable cross-market flipper

Profitable high-volume wallet flipped from Yes to No while trading across 7 related Iran markets during a fast No price move near resolution.

  • This bettor is up $151,729 lifetime across more than $5.4M traded.
  • They have $48,863 positioned across 7 related markets, suggesting a broader Iran-event thesis.
  • They closed a prior Yes position and bought No at 55¢ as No jumped about 12% in four minutes.

$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 48%

Profitable cross-market flipper

Profitable high-volume wallet flipped from Yes to No while trading across 7 related Iran markets during a fast No price move near resolution.

  • This bettor is up $151,729 lifetime across more than $5.4M traded.
  • They have $48,863 positioned across 7 related markets, suggesting a broader Iran-event thesis.
  • They closed a prior Yes position and bought No at 55¢ as No jumped about 12% in four minutes.

$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 48%

Serial cross-market Iran bettor

Serial cross-market bettor is building a broader US-Iran thesis across 8 related markets, but their long-term edge is modest and this specific No entry has moved slightly against them.

  • This wallet trades across many related markets, with 68 markets across 36 events tracked.
  • They have $44.8K positioned across 8 markets in this event, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis.
  • This specific No buy was at 44¢ and is now around 40¢, offering a slightly better entry than the trader got.

$1,631 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%

96% serial cross-market winner

A highly proven serial cross-market trader with a 96% resolved win rate bought No as the market rapidly moved in that direction.

  • This bettor wins 96% of resolved trades and is up $291k lifetime.
  • They have traded 565 markets across 302 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
  • They bought No at 55¢ shortly before it moved to 58¢ amid a sharp one-day swing.

$2,365 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

8-wallet No cluster

Strong No cluster: 8 wallets including profitable high-volume traders bought $30k into a major US-Iran market, alongside a 12x volume spike and sharp price move against Yes.

  • Eight wallets bought the same side, putting $30k on No as the market moved sharply their way.
  • Several wallets have strong records, including one bettor winning 83% of 1,316 resolved trades and another up $264k lifetime.
  • The move came with a 12x volume spike and Yes fell 21 points in under 2 minutes, suggesting heavy conviction around the No thesis.

$30,184 on No

Proven cross-market bettor

A proven 75% winning serial cross-market trader with $266k lifetime profit is buying Yes as part of a large US-Iran event thesis.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up about $266k lifetime.
  • They are active across 11 related US-Iran markets with $167k positioned on the same event thesis.
  • Entry at 75¢ came after a 14-point daily drop, suggesting they see the pullback as mispriced.

$1,176 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%

4-wallet No momentum

A four-wallet cluster pushed No with $8.2K amid a sharp 29-point move and broader cross-market positioning on the US-Iran event.

  • Four wallets put $8.2K on No as the market moved nearly 30 points in their favor.
  • One participating bettor has 1,156 resolved bets and is up $84K lifetime.
  • Related positioning spans 10 markets and $75.9K, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis.

$8,171 on No

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Outcome 81588204, $186,839 (69% win rate)
  2. 0x02d8...0c91 Outcome 81588204, $49,950 (87% win rate)
  3. 0x215a...254c Outcome 81588204, $8,365
  4. 0xac4a...bf1e Outcome 81588204, $7,463
  5. 0xfc2f...10c7 Outcome 81588204, $5,208 (75% win rate)
  6. 0x80a0...5708 Outcome 81588204, $5,000 (40% win rate)
  7. 0x98a7...df9e Outcome 81588204, $5,000
  8. 0x71ca...3501 Outcome 81588204, $4,262 (73% win rate)
  9. 0xd1e1...69a6 Outcome 81588204, $4,149 (33% win rate)
  10. 0x91a5...ef2e Outcome 81588204, $2,485

Related Theses

Covers 7 related markets

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 7 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

ResolvedUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?$130,507 tracked37 signalsPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopoliticsPeace Deal

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

40d ago

$3,097 on No at 69¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

40d ago

$3,016 on No at 76¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

40d ago

$3,617 on No at 59¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

40d ago

$2,000 on No at 55¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

40d ago

$3,000 on No at 55¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

40d ago

$1,631 on No at 44¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

40d ago

$2,365 on No at 55¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

40d ago

$30,184 on No at 67¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

40d ago

$1,176 on Yes at 75¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

40d ago

$8,171 on No at 74¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

40d ago

$2,209 on Yes at 75¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

40d ago

$2,167 on Yes at 85¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

40d ago

$2,057 on Yes at 75¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

40d ago

$3,882 on Yes at 56¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

40d ago

$3,842 on Yes at 61¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

40d ago

$1,639 on No at 44¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

41d ago

$1,125 on Yes at 55¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

41d ago

$2,433 on No at 50¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

41d ago

$2,275 on No at 28¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

41d ago

$3,071 on No at 28¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

41d ago

$1,500 on No at 28¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

41d ago

$4,337 on No at 27¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

41d ago

$2,093 on No at 27¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

41d ago

$1,084 on No at 27¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

41d ago

$1,777 on No at 28¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

41d ago

$6,479 on No at 28¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

41d ago

$1,474 on No at 28¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

41d ago

$4,903 on Yes at 80¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

41d ago

$1,301 on No at 44¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

42d ago

$1,074 on No at 28¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

42d ago

$1,127 on No at 28¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

43d ago

$2,622 on No at 28¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

43d ago

$5,629 on No at 28¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

43d ago

$2,340 on No at 28¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

44d ago

$2,483 on No at 28¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

44d ago

$5,367 on Yes at 63¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

45d ago

$1,961 on No at 69¢

Related Theses