Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
37 smart money signals detected, totaling $130,507.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Peace Deal
Notable Trades
Profitable cross-market bettor
Proven profitable wallet with a 77% record is building a large cross-market US-Iran thesis and bought No on a thin diplomacy market.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up about $36.9K lifetime.
- They have positioned across 13 related markets with about $122K total exposure, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis.
- This $2K No buy is large relative to the market’s $8.2K daily volume.
$3,097 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
87% serial cross-market winner
Sharp serial cross-market bettor with an 87% resolved win rate bought No on the US-Iran meeting market at 76¢ amid major one-day price movement.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $222K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 85 events with $3.6M in flagged activity.
- They bought No at 76¢, and the market has already moved to 79¢ after a sharp one-day swing.
$3,016 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
80% win-rate sharp
A highly profitable 80% win-rate wallet with extensive cross-market history bought No after a major move against Yes.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $3.86M lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 139 events with $5.6M in tracked volume.
- They bought No at 59¢ after Yes fell 35.6% in a day, aligning with strong recent momentum.
$3,617 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
Profitable cross-market flipper
Profitable high-volume wallet flipped from Yes to No while trading across 7 related Iran markets during a fast No price move near resolution.
- This bettor is up $151,729 lifetime across more than $5.4M traded.
- They have $48,863 positioned across 7 related markets, suggesting a broader Iran-event thesis.
- They closed a prior Yes position and bought No at 55¢ as No jumped about 12% in four minutes.
$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 48%
Profitable cross-market flipper
Profitable high-volume wallet flipped from Yes to No while trading across 7 related Iran markets during a fast No price move near resolution.
- This bettor is up $151,729 lifetime across more than $5.4M traded.
- They have $48,863 positioned across 7 related markets, suggesting a broader Iran-event thesis.
- They closed a prior Yes position and bought No at 55¢ as No jumped about 12% in four minutes.
$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 48%
Serial cross-market Iran bettor
Serial cross-market bettor is building a broader US-Iran thesis across 8 related markets, but their long-term edge is modest and this specific No entry has moved slightly against them.
- This wallet trades across many related markets, with 68 markets across 36 events tracked.
- They have $44.8K positioned across 8 markets in this event, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis.
- This specific No buy was at 44¢ and is now around 40¢, offering a slightly better entry than the trader got.
$1,631 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%
96% serial cross-market winner
A highly proven serial cross-market trader with a 96% resolved win rate bought No as the market rapidly moved in that direction.
- This bettor wins 96% of resolved trades and is up $291k lifetime.
- They have traded 565 markets across 302 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- They bought No at 55¢ shortly before it moved to 58¢ amid a sharp one-day swing.
$2,365 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
8-wallet No cluster
Strong No cluster: 8 wallets including profitable high-volume traders bought $30k into a major US-Iran market, alongside a 12x volume spike and sharp price move against Yes.
- Eight wallets bought the same side, putting $30k on No as the market moved sharply their way.
- Several wallets have strong records, including one bettor winning 83% of 1,316 resolved trades and another up $264k lifetime.
- The move came with a 12x volume spike and Yes fell 21 points in under 2 minutes, suggesting heavy conviction around the No thesis.
$30,184 on No
Proven cross-market bettor
A proven 75% winning serial cross-market trader with $266k lifetime profit is buying Yes as part of a large US-Iran event thesis.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up about $266k lifetime.
- They are active across 11 related US-Iran markets with $167k positioned on the same event thesis.
- Entry at 75¢ came after a 14-point daily drop, suggesting they see the pullback as mispriced.
$1,176 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%
4-wallet No momentum
A four-wallet cluster pushed No with $8.2K amid a sharp 29-point move and broader cross-market positioning on the US-Iran event.
- Four wallets put $8.2K on No as the market moved nearly 30 points in their favor.
- One participating bettor has 1,156 resolved bets and is up $84K lifetime.
- Related positioning spans 10 markets and $75.9K, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis.
$8,171 on No
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 81588204, $186,839 (69% win rate)
- 0x02d8...0c91 — Outcome 81588204, $49,950 (87% win rate)
- 0x215a...254c — Outcome 81588204, $8,365
- 0xac4a...bf1e — Outcome 81588204, $7,463
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 81588204, $5,208 (75% win rate)
- 0x80a0...5708 — Outcome 81588204, $5,000 (40% win rate)
- 0x98a7...df9e — Outcome 81588204, $5,000
- 0x71ca...3501 — Outcome 81588204, $4,262 (73% win rate)
- 0xd1e1...69a6 — Outcome 81588204, $4,149 (33% win rate)
- 0x91a5...ef2e — Outcome 81588204, $2,485
