Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $170,603.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
Sharp serial cross-market bettor
Sharp wallet with a 78% resolved win rate and $385k lifetime profit is buying No in a cross-market Iran diplomacy thesis.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $385,837 lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 42 events with nearly $485k in related positioning.
- Buying No at 90¢ aligns with recent momentum, with Yes down 14 points over the past week.
$2,509 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%
Profitable trader flips to NO
Surface: a profitable serial cross-market trader flipped from a prior Yes position to buying No amid a 40.9x volume spike and falling Yes odds.
- This serial cross-market bettor has traded 43 related markets across 25 events and is up $87K lifetime.
- They flipped from a prior Yes position into No at 89¢, suggesting a clear change in thesis rather than profit-taking.
- Market volume spiked 40.9x while Yes fell 14 points this week, reinforcing the move toward No.
$2,665 on No | Wallet win rate: 56%
Serial cross-market sharp
Proven profitable cross-market trader with 75% win rate is effectively buying Yes on a US-Iran meeting after extensive related positioning.
- This bettor has won 75% of 360 resolved bets and is up $226,890 lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 84 events and 144 markets with $7.3M total traded.
- Selling No at 87¢ is effectively buying Yes at 13¢, a contrarian entry after Yes fell 10.5% this week.
$1,368 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Proven profitable serial cross-market trader is buying No at 87¢ as part of a broader $97k US-Iran event position across 10 markets.
- This bettor has won 75% of 360 resolved trades and is up $226,890 lifetime.
- They have placed $97,066 across 10 related US-Iran markets, suggesting a broad directional thesis.
- Buying No at 87¢ signals confidence that no official US-Iran diplomatic meeting happens by the deadline.
$2,915 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Sharp cross-market diplomat trader
Sharp, profitable wallet with a 75% historical win rate is trading a broader US-Iran thesis across 10 related markets, though this specific sell appears to reduce a prior No position.
- This bettor has won 75% of 360 resolved trades and is up about $227k lifetime.
- They have traded 10 related US-Iran markets with nearly $99k in total exposure, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Selling No at 89¢ is equivalent to buying Yes around 11¢, but it may also be reducing a prior No position.
$4,412 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
21-for-21 diplomacy bettor
Sharp wallet with a perfect 21-0 resolved record is making a $22.5k No bet, aligned with bearish momentum across related US-Iran markets.
- This bettor has won 21 of 21 resolved trades and is up $9.8k lifetime.
- They put $22.5k on No at 88¢, a large fresh bet on a major diplomacy market.
- The market has moved toward No recently, with Yes down 14 points over the past week.
$22,467 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Serial cross-market winner
Surfacing because a profitable 75% lifetime winner with a long serial cross-market history is buying No as part of a much larger US-Iran event thesis.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $226,890 lifetime.
- They have traded 144 markets across 84 events, with nearly $100K positioned across 10 related US-Iran markets.
- Buying No at 86¢ suggests they are backing continued no-meeting odds despite the market already leaning that way.
$5,678 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
81% serial cross-market bettor
Sharp 81% lifetime winner is adding a cross-market thesis with a BUY No position at 84¢, backed by a long history of profitable correlated-event trading.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $67.6K lifetime.
- They have a strong cross-market pattern: 25 events, 33 markets, and $162.6K traded.
- They are betting across 3 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader No-side thesis.
$2,688 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume wallet is adding a No position as part of a broader $63.7k cross-market US-Iran thesis across 9 related markets.
- This wallet is up $1.13M lifetime across $77M traded.
- It has placed $63.7k across 9 related US-Iran markets, suggesting a broader diplomatic thesis.
- This trade buys No at 85¢, in line with a high-conviction view that no meeting happens by the deadline.
$4,654 on No | Wallet win rate: 48%
Profitable cross-market No bettor
Profitable wallet with a 72% resolved win rate is expressing a broader cross-market No thesis across four related US-Iran markets.
- This bettor has won 72% of 58 resolved trades and is up about $202K lifetime.
- They have $85K positioned across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader US-Iran diplomacy thesis.
- They previously closed a Yes position here and are now buying No at 85¢, signaling a clear shift in view.
$6,121 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 66943183, $423,686 (69% win rate)
- 0x3c0c...fbb7 — Outcome 66943183, $83,761 (75% win rate)
- 0xe166...8f14 — Outcome 66943183, $77,697 (85% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Outcome 66943183, $23,323 (79% win rate)
- 0xc658...b784 — Outcome 66943183, $20,030 (68% win rate)
- 0x92bb...1afb — Outcome 66943183, $19,798
- 0xcf60...47ce — Outcome 66943183, $15,000 (54% win rate)
- 0xff9e...b900 — Outcome 66943183, $13,952
- 0xdf6f...f6ee — Outcome 66943183, $11,943
- 0xb911...8bb6 — Outcome 66943183, $11,462
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