Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

50 smart money signals detected, totaling $170,603.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Sharp serial cross-market bettor

Sharp wallet with a 78% resolved win rate and $385k lifetime profit is buying No in a cross-market Iran diplomacy thesis.

  • This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $385,837 lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 42 events with nearly $485k in related positioning.
  • Buying No at 90¢ aligns with recent momentum, with Yes down 14 points over the past week.

$2,509 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

Profitable trader flips to NO

Surface: a profitable serial cross-market trader flipped from a prior Yes position to buying No amid a 40.9x volume spike and falling Yes odds.

  • This serial cross-market bettor has traded 43 related markets across 25 events and is up $87K lifetime.
  • They flipped from a prior Yes position into No at 89¢, suggesting a clear change in thesis rather than profit-taking.
  • Market volume spiked 40.9x while Yes fell 14 points this week, reinforcing the move toward No.

$2,665 on No | Wallet win rate: 56%

Serial cross-market sharp

Proven profitable cross-market trader with 75% win rate is effectively buying Yes on a US-Iran meeting after extensive related positioning.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 360 resolved bets and is up $226,890 lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 84 events and 144 markets with $7.3M total traded.
  • Selling No at 87¢ is effectively buying Yes at 13¢, a contrarian entry after Yes fell 10.5% this week.

$1,368 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Proven profitable serial cross-market trader is buying No at 87¢ as part of a broader $97k US-Iran event position across 10 markets.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 360 resolved trades and is up $226,890 lifetime.
  • They have placed $97,066 across 10 related US-Iran markets, suggesting a broad directional thesis.
  • Buying No at 87¢ signals confidence that no official US-Iran diplomatic meeting happens by the deadline.

$2,915 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Sharp cross-market diplomat trader

Sharp, profitable wallet with a 75% historical win rate is trading a broader US-Iran thesis across 10 related markets, though this specific sell appears to reduce a prior No position.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 360 resolved trades and is up about $227k lifetime.
  • They have traded 10 related US-Iran markets with nearly $99k in total exposure, suggesting a broader thesis.
  • Selling No at 89¢ is equivalent to buying Yes around 11¢, but it may also be reducing a prior No position.

$4,412 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%

21-for-21 diplomacy bettor

Sharp wallet with a perfect 21-0 resolved record is making a $22.5k No bet, aligned with bearish momentum across related US-Iran markets.

  • This bettor has won 21 of 21 resolved trades and is up $9.8k lifetime.
  • They put $22.5k on No at 88¢, a large fresh bet on a major diplomacy market.
  • The market has moved toward No recently, with Yes down 14 points over the past week.

$22,467 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Serial cross-market winner

Surfacing because a profitable 75% lifetime winner with a long serial cross-market history is buying No as part of a much larger US-Iran event thesis.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $226,890 lifetime.
  • They have traded 144 markets across 84 events, with nearly $100K positioned across 10 related US-Iran markets.
  • Buying No at 86¢ suggests they are backing continued no-meeting odds despite the market already leaning that way.

$5,678 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

81% serial cross-market bettor

Sharp 81% lifetime winner is adding a cross-market thesis with a BUY No position at 84¢, backed by a long history of profitable correlated-event trading.

  • This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $67.6K lifetime.
  • They have a strong cross-market pattern: 25 events, 33 markets, and $162.6K traded.
  • They are betting across 3 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader No-side thesis.

$2,688 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Profitable cross-market bettor

Profitable high-volume wallet is adding a No position as part of a broader $63.7k cross-market US-Iran thesis across 9 related markets.

  • This wallet is up $1.13M lifetime across $77M traded.
  • It has placed $63.7k across 9 related US-Iran markets, suggesting a broader diplomatic thesis.
  • This trade buys No at 85¢, in line with a high-conviction view that no meeting happens by the deadline.

$4,654 on No | Wallet win rate: 48%

Profitable cross-market No bettor

Profitable wallet with a 72% resolved win rate is expressing a broader cross-market No thesis across four related US-Iran markets.

  • This bettor has won 72% of 58 resolved trades and is up about $202K lifetime.
  • They have $85K positioned across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader US-Iran diplomacy thesis.
  • They previously closed a Yes position here and are now buying No at 85¢, signaling a clear shift in view.

$6,121 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Outcome 66943183, $423,686 (69% win rate)
  2. 0x3c0c...fbb7 Outcome 66943183, $83,761 (75% win rate)
  3. 0xe166...8f14 Outcome 66943183, $77,697 (85% win rate)
  4. 0xde7b...5f4b Outcome 66943183, $23,323 (79% win rate)
  5. 0xc658...b784 Outcome 66943183, $20,030 (68% win rate)
  6. 0x92bb...1afb Outcome 66943183, $19,798
  7. 0xcf60...47ce Outcome 66943183, $15,000 (54% win rate)
  8. 0xff9e...b900 Outcome 66943183, $13,952
  9. 0xdf6f...f6ee Outcome 66943183, $11,943
  10. 0xb911...8bb6 Outcome 66943183, $11,462

Related Theses

Covers 3 related markets

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Iran keeps airspace open

Covers 7 related markets

Peace deal by late May

Covers 11 related markets

Iran deal unlikely by July

Covers 10 related markets

Iran agreement comes early June

Covers 7 related markets

No Iran peace deal in 2026

Covers 9 related markets

Iran keeps airspace open

Covers 7 related markets

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

ResolvedUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?$170,603 tracked50 signalsPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopolitics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

16d ago

$2,509 on No at 90¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

16d ago

$2,665 on No at 89¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

17d ago

$1,368 on Yes at 13¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

17d ago

$2,915 on No at 87¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

17d ago

$4,412 on Yes at 11¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

17d ago

$22,467 on No at 88¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

17d ago

$5,678 on No at 86¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

18d ago

$2,688 on No at 84¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

18d ago

$4,654 on No at 85¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

18d ago

$6,121 on No at 85¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

18d ago

$2,978 on Yes at 16¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

18d ago

$1,120 on Yes at 14¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

18d ago

$1,300 on No at 87¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

18d ago

$6,237 on No at 85¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

19d ago

$2,403 on Yes at 20¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

20d ago

$1,271 on Yes at 12¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

20d ago

$10,888 on No at 89¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

20d ago

$1,581 on No at 89¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

20d ago

$2,688 on No at 84¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

20d ago

$9,901 on No at 83¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

20d ago

$1,442 on No at 82¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

20d ago

$2,656 on No at 77¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

20d ago

$1,748 on No at 57¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

20d ago

$1,458 on No at 55¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

20d ago

$1,163 on Yes at 45¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

20d ago

$1,713 on Yes at 43¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

20d ago

$1,140 on No at 57¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

20d ago

$2,799 on Yes at 43¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

20d ago

$2,900 on No at 58¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

20d ago

$2,798 on No at 56¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

20d ago

$2,264 on No at 54¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

20d ago

$1,873 on No at 56¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

20d ago

$1,902 on No at 56¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

20d ago

$1,233 on Yes at 48¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

21d ago

$1,796 on No at 52¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

21d ago

$1,839 on Yes at 33¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

21d ago

$1,667 on Yes at 17¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

21d ago

$3,269 on Yes at 17¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

21d ago

$1,861 on No at 82¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

21d ago

$1,848 on No at 83¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

22d ago

$3,900 on No at 78¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

22d ago

$1,420 on Yes at 29¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

22d ago

$2,526 on Yes at 28¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

22d ago

$10,503 on Yes at 26¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

22d ago

$3,859 on Yes at 23¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

22d ago

$2,226 on No at 78¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

23d ago

$1,925 on No at 77¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

23d ago

$3,080 on No at 77¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

23d ago

$3,050 on No at 77¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

23d ago

$2,901 on No at 78¢

Related Theses