Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $170,603.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
Sharp serial cross-market bettor
Sharp wallet with a 78% resolved win rate and $385k lifetime profit is buying No in a cross-market Iran diplomacy thesis.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $385,837 lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 42 events with nearly $485k in related positioning.
- Buying No at 90¢ aligns with recent momentum, with Yes down 14 points over the past week.
$2,509 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
Profitable trader flips to NO
Surface: a profitable serial cross-market trader flipped from a prior Yes position to buying No amid a 40.9x volume spike and falling Yes odds.
- This serial cross-market bettor has traded 43 related markets across 25 events and is up $87K lifetime.
- They flipped from a prior Yes position into No at 89¢, suggesting a clear change in thesis rather than profit-taking.
- Market volume spiked 40.9x while Yes fell 14 points this week, reinforcing the move toward No.
$2,665 on No | Wallet win rate: 57%
Serial cross-market sharp
Proven profitable cross-market trader with 75% win rate is effectively buying Yes on a US-Iran meeting after extensive related positioning.
- This bettor has won 75% of 360 resolved bets and is up $226,890 lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 84 events and 144 markets with $7.3M total traded.
- Selling No at 87¢ is effectively buying Yes at 13¢, a contrarian entry after Yes fell 10.5% this week.
$1,368 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Proven profitable serial cross-market trader is buying No at 87¢ as part of a broader $97k US-Iran event position across 10 markets.
- This bettor has won 75% of 360 resolved trades and is up $226,890 lifetime.
- They have placed $97,066 across 10 related US-Iran markets, suggesting a broad directional thesis.
- Buying No at 87¢ signals confidence that no official US-Iran diplomatic meeting happens by the deadline.
$2,915 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
Sharp cross-market diplomat trader
Sharp, profitable wallet with a 75% historical win rate is trading a broader US-Iran thesis across 10 related markets, though this specific sell appears to reduce a prior No position.
- This bettor has won 75% of 360 resolved trades and is up about $227k lifetime.
- They have traded 10 related US-Iran markets with nearly $99k in total exposure, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Selling No at 89¢ is equivalent to buying Yes around 11¢, but it may also be reducing a prior No position.
$4,412 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
21-for-21 diplomacy bettor
Sharp wallet with a perfect 21-0 resolved record is making a $22.5k No bet, aligned with bearish momentum across related US-Iran markets.
- This bettor has won 21 of 21 resolved trades and is up $9.8k lifetime.
- They put $22.5k on No at 88¢, a large fresh bet on a major diplomacy market.
- The market has moved toward No recently, with Yes down 14 points over the past week.
$22,467 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
Serial cross-market winner
Surfacing because a profitable 75% lifetime winner with a long serial cross-market history is buying No as part of a much larger US-Iran event thesis.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $226,890 lifetime.
- They have traded 144 markets across 84 events, with nearly $100K positioned across 10 related US-Iran markets.
- Buying No at 86¢ suggests they are backing continued no-meeting odds despite the market already leaning that way.
$5,678 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
81% serial cross-market bettor
Sharp 81% lifetime winner is adding a cross-market thesis with a BUY No position at 84¢, backed by a long history of profitable correlated-event trading.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $67.6K lifetime.
- They have a strong cross-market pattern: 25 events, 33 markets, and $162.6K traded.
- They are betting across 3 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader No-side thesis.
$2,688 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume wallet is adding a No position as part of a broader $63.7k cross-market US-Iran thesis across 9 related markets.
- This wallet is up $1.13M lifetime across $77M traded.
- It has placed $63.7k across 9 related US-Iran markets, suggesting a broader diplomatic thesis.
- This trade buys No at 85¢, in line with a high-conviction view that no meeting happens by the deadline.
$4,654 on No | Wallet win rate: 48%
Profitable cross-market No bettor
Profitable wallet with a 72% resolved win rate is expressing a broader cross-market No thesis across four related US-Iran markets.
- This bettor has won 72% of 58 resolved trades and is up about $202K lifetime.
- They have $85K positioned across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader US-Iran diplomacy thesis.
- They previously closed a Yes position here and are now buying No at 85¢, signaling a clear shift in view.
$6,121 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $423,686 (72% win rate)
- 0x3c0c...fbb7 — Yes, $83,761 (69% win rate)
- 0xe166...8f14 — Yes, $77,697 (88% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Yes, $23,323 (79% win rate)
- 0xc658...b784 — Yes, $20,030 (69% win rate)
- 0x92bb...1afb — Yes, $19,798
- 0xcf60...47ce — Yes, $15,000 (57% win rate)
- 0xdf6f...f6ee — Yes, $11,943
- 0xb911...8bb6 — Yes, $11,462
- 0xbbb1...ecdb — Yes, $10,432 (50% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran keeps airspace open
Covers 7 related markets
Iran agreement comes early June
Covers 7 related markets
No Iran peace deal in 2026
Covers 9 related markets
Iran keeps airspace open
Covers 7 related markets
Iran closes airspace late June
Covers 7 related markets
Trump lifts Hormuz blockade
Covers 5 related markets
