Part of: US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET). A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, the action will be judged based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and credible reporting.

27 smart money signals detected, totaling $154,709.

Categories: Iran, ceasefire, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire

Notable Trades

Profitable bettor adds to Yes

A profitable bettor with a 67% win rate and substantial edge at an average 43¢ winning entry is adding $2,287 to an existing Yes position.

  • This bettor wins 67% of 55 resolved trades and is up $58,433 overall.
  • They added $2,287 to an existing Yes position, showing increased conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
  • Yes was bought at 50¢ while the market is near 51¢, with odds already up 41.8% over the past week.

$1,195 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

Serial trader scales into No

A serial cross-market trader with 633 resolved bets added $4,000 to No amid a 178x volume surge, though the position is partly routine scaling of an existing No holding.

  • This bettor has traded across 59 markets and 30 events, with 633 resolved bets and a 71% win rate.
  • A $4,000 No purchase coincided with a 178x historical volume spike and a 15.4-point daily rise in Yes odds.
  • The wallet is adding to an existing No position at 81¢, while also holding a smaller Yes hedge.

$3,924 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Five-wallet shift toward Yes

Five wallets coordinated $13,041 of No selling, creating a meaningful equivalent Yes signal, though existing No holdings suggest some may be reducing positions rather than expressing fresh conviction.

  • Five wallets sold $13,041 of No within minutes, equivalent to buying Yes around 24¢.
  • The flow was meaningful against $90,142 of liquidity and accompanied a 10.7x volume spike.
  • Most wallets already held No, so this looks partly like coordinated position reduction rather than pure new conviction.

$13,041 on Yes

Profitable bettor adds to Yes

A profitable bettor with a 67% win rate and substantial edge at an average 43¢ winning entry is adding $2,287 to an existing Yes position.

  • This bettor wins 67% of 55 resolved trades and is up $58,433 overall.
  • They added $2,287 to an existing Yes position, showing increased conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
  • Yes was bought at 50¢ while the market is near 51¢, with odds already up 41.8% over the past week.

$1,075 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

Sharp bettor scales into Yes

A profitable bettor with a meaningful 55-bet track record and 24-point edge over average winning prices is adding $2,929 to an existing Yes position amid strong upward momentum.

  • This bettor wins 67% of 55 resolved trades and is up $59,101 overall.
  • They added $2,929 to an existing Yes position at 53¢, increasing a $10,462 commitment.
  • Yes has risen 43.2% over the past week, supporting the bettor’s direction.

$2,929 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

Profitable bettor adds to Yes

A profitable bettor with a 67% win rate and substantial edge at an average 43¢ winning entry is adding $2,287 to an existing Yes position.

  • This bettor wins 67% of 55 resolved trades and is up $58,433 overall.
  • They added $2,287 to an existing Yes position, showing increased conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
  • Yes was bought at 50¢ while the market is near 51¢, with odds already up 41.8% over the past week.

$1,854 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

Profitable bettor adds to Yes

A profitable bettor with a 67% win rate and substantial edge at an average 43¢ winning entry is adding $2,287 to an existing Yes position.

  • This bettor wins 67% of 55 resolved trades and is up $58,433 overall.
  • They added $2,287 to an existing Yes position, showing increased conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
  • Yes was bought at 50¢ while the market is near 51¢, with odds already up 41.8% over the past week.

$2,287 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

Six-wallet cluster adding to Yes

Six linked wallets and a serial cross-market trader are aligned on Yes, with the wallet adding to a substantial existing position as the market has risen 40.8% over the week.

  • Six wallets sharing a funder are aligned on this market, signaling coordinated conviction.
  • This trader has won 68% of 105 resolved bets and is adding to a $41,395 Yes position.
  • Yes has risen 40.8% over the past week alongside heavy $474,194 daily volume.

$1,562 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Six-wallet coordinated rebalancing

Six linked wallets and a serial cross-market trader drove a sharp move in this market, although the wallet is actively rebalancing a large existing Yes position rather than making a clean one-sided bet.

  • Six wallets sharing a funder placed $6,872 in related trades, a strong coordinated-flow signal.
  • This serial trader has participated in 35 events and is up $79,618 across 106 resolved bets.
  • The wallet is rebalancing a large existing Yes position, so the mixed Yes/No trades are weaker evidence of a fresh directional view.

$6,872 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Six-wallet cluster adding to Yes

Six linked wallets and a serial cross-market trader are aligned on Yes, with the wallet adding to a substantial existing position as the market has risen 40.8% over the week.

  • Six wallets sharing a funder are aligned on this market, signaling coordinated conviction.
  • This trader has won 68% of 105 resolved bets and is adding to a $41,395 Yes position.
  • Yes has risen 40.8% over the past week alongside heavy $474,194 daily volume.

$2,965 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Related Theses

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Neither party controls the Senate

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Iranian blockade will persist through September

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Iran blockade likely persists through 2026

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US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)$154,709 tracked27 signalsIranceasefirePeace DealGeopoliticsU.S. x IranIran Ceasefire
Yes
0¢
No
100¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET). A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, the action will be judged based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and credible reporting.

Notable Trades

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2026-07-29 02:40 UTC

$1,195 on Yes at 50¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2026-07-29 00:44 UTC

$3,924 on No at 81¢

81¢→100¢↑19¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2026-07-28 23:03 UTC

$13,041 on Yes at 24¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2026-07-28 07:14 UTC

$1,075 on Yes at 50¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2026-07-28 07:09 UTC

$2,929 on Yes at 53¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2026-07-28 07:01 UTC

$1,854 on Yes at 50¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2026-07-28 06:51 UTC

$2,287 on Yes at 50¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2026-07-27 21:49 UTC

$1,562 on Yes at 50¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2026-07-27 21:38 UTC

$6,872 on No at 52¢

52¢→100¢↑48¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2026-07-27 20:48 UTC

$2,965 on Yes at 50¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2026-07-27 15:51 UTC

$2,858 on No at 80¢

80¢→100¢↑20¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2026-07-27 08:55 UTC

$1,708 on Yes at 50¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2026-07-27 02:31 UTC

$1,500 on Yes at 49¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2026-07-26 21:39 UTC

$2,409 on Yes at 50¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2026-07-26 20:42 UTC

$1,046 on Yes at 50¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2026-07-25 23:42 UTC

$1,551 on Yes at 17¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2026-07-25 22:55 UTC

$5,027 on Yes at 17¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2026-07-25 22:45 UTC

$13,007 on No at 72¢

72¢→100¢↑28¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2026-07-25 22:04 UTC

$1,050 on No at 81¢

81¢→100¢↑19¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2026-07-30 08:12 UTC

$56,891 on Yes at 39¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2026-07-25 22:00 UTC

$10,900 on No at 80¢

80¢→100¢↑20¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2026-07-25 21:37 UTC

$4,000 on No at 81¢

81¢→100¢↑19¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2026-07-21 03:22 UTC

$3,000 on No at 86¢

86¢→100¢↑14¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2026-07-21 00:06 UTC

$2,640 on Yes at 17¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2026-07-20 16:44 UTC

$2,490 on Yes at 17¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2026-07-20 09:43 UTC

$1,515 on No at 86¢

86¢→100¢↑14¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2026-07-29 00:49 UTC

$5,412 on No at 63¢

63¢→100¢↑37¢

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