Part of: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,984.
Categories: Oil, Iran, Trump, Hormuz, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz
Notable Trades
82% winner buying high-conviction Yes
A highly profitable 82% win-rate wallet with extensive cross-market history is buying Yes at 90¢ despite already high odds.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $811k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.7M deployed across 183 related markets.
- Buying at 90¢ shows confidence that the ship-transit threshold is very likely to be hit.
$1,984 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Top Holders
- 0xcca9...4c9f — Outcome 26955219, $6,612 (63% win rate)
- 0x49e9...8f85 — Outcome 26955219, $6,166 (98% win rate)
- 0x853c...bd03 — Outcome 26955219, $3,723 (50% win rate)
- 0xac4a...bf1e — Outcome 26955219, $3,379
- 0xcb69...361e — Outcome 26955219, $3,375
- 0x9ca1...13b5 — Outcome 26955219, $3,000 (59% win rate)
- 0xff52...4546 — Outcome 26955219, $2,960
- 0xdaf9...dba5 — Outcome 26955219, $2,914
- 0x9952...2edb — Outcome 26955219, $2,000
- 0x5bcc...8d7e — Outcome 26955219, $2,000
Related Theses
Calendar arbitrage on talks
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Crude oil market arbitrage
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WTI stays between $90 and $105
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Hormuz blockade persists
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Iran peace deal won’t happen
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Iran closes airspace mid-May
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Iran deal by mid-June
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Iran surrenders uranium in May
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