Part of: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,984.

Categories: Oil, Iran, Trump, Hormuz, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz

Notable Trades

82% winner buying high-conviction Yes

A highly profitable 82% win-rate wallet with extensive cross-market history is buying Yes at 90¢ despite already high odds.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $811k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.7M deployed across 183 related markets.
  • Buying at 90¢ shows confidence that the ship-transit threshold is very likely to be hit.

$1,984 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Top Holders

  1. 0xcca9...4c9f Outcome 26955219, $6,612 (63% win rate)
  2. 0x49e9...8f85 Outcome 26955219, $6,166 (98% win rate)
  3. 0x853c...bd03 Outcome 26955219, $3,723 (50% win rate)
  4. 0xac4a...bf1e Outcome 26955219, $3,379
  5. 0xcb69...361e Outcome 26955219, $3,375
  6. 0x9ca1...13b5 Outcome 26955219, $3,000 (59% win rate)
  7. 0xff52...4546 Outcome 26955219, $2,960
  8. 0xdaf9...dba5 Outcome 26955219, $2,914
  9. 0x9952...2edb Outcome 26955219, $2,000
  10. 0x5bcc...8d7e Outcome 26955219, $2,000

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks

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Crude oil market arbitrage

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WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Hormuz blockade persists

Covers 9 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

Iran surrenders uranium in May

Covers 4 related markets

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

ResolvedWill __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?$1,984 tracked1 signalOilIranTrumpHormuzGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Price History — “Yes
100¢
86¢
73¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

13d ago

$1,984 on Yes at 90¢

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks
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Crude oil market arbitrage
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WTI stays between $90 and $105
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Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Hormuz blockade persists
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Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…
Iran peace deal won’t happen
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US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
Iran closes airspace mid-May
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Iran closes its airspace by Ju…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…
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Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…
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Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Iran deal by mid-June
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US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…
Iran surrenders uranium in May
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Iran agrees to surrender enric…Iran agrees to surrender enric…Iran agrees to surrender enric…