Part of: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $17,030.
Categories: Oil, Iran, Trump, Hormuz, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz
Notable Trades
Sharp trader fading rally
Sharp profitable cross-market trader is fading a strong Yes move by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 40¢.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $657k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.3M deployed across 165 markets.
- Selling Yes after a +38.5% weekly move is effectively buying No at 40¢.
$1,265 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Sharp bettor flips to NO
Sharp positive-P&L wallet with a 79% resolved-bet win rate is flipping from a prior Yes position into a $7.3k No bet across related Hormuz transit markets.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $7.2k lifetime.
- They put $7.3k on No after closing a prior Yes position, signaling a clear view change.
- The same wallet is active across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis on Hormuz ship traffic.
$5,589 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
Sharp bettor flips to NO
Sharp positive-P&L wallet with a 79% resolved-bet win rate is flipping from a prior Yes position into a $7.3k No bet across related Hormuz transit markets.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $7.2k lifetime.
- They put $7.3k on No after closing a prior Yes position, signaling a clear view change.
- The same wallet is active across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis on Hormuz ship traffic.
$7,257 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
Sharp trader fading rally
Sharp profitable cross-market trader is fading a strong Yes move by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 40¢.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $657k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.3M deployed across 165 markets.
- Selling Yes after a +38.5% weekly move is effectively buying No at 40¢.
$1,719 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Sharp trader fading rally
Sharp profitable cross-market trader is fading a strong Yes move by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 40¢.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $657k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.3M deployed across 165 markets.
- Selling Yes after a +38.5% weekly move is effectively buying No at 40¢.
$1,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Top Holders
- 0xc381...a661 — Outcome 83371658, $32,806 (83% win rate)
- 0xf8fb...19dc — Outcome 83371658, $8,970 (44% win rate)
- 0xe94b...5abe — Outcome 83371658, $7,022 (73% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 83371658, $6,954 (73% win rate)
- 0xf2c8...ba2f — Outcome 83371658, $5,090
- 0x2c10...336c — Outcome 83371658, $4,483
- 0x31bd...2649 — Outcome 83371658, $4,216
- 0xbfbe...2b85 — Outcome 83371658, $3,680
- 0x49e9...8f85 — Outcome 83371658, $3,542 (98% win rate)
- 0x33ef...c498 — Outcome 83371658, $3,500 (72% win rate)
Related Theses
Calendar arbitrage on talks
Covers 16 related markets
WTI stays between $90 and $105
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Hormuz blockade persists
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Iran deal by mid-June
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Iran peace deal won’t happen
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Iran closes airspace mid-May
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Crude oil market arbitrage
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Israel airspace closes briefly in June
Covers 4 related markets