Part of: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

This Polymarket market asks whether IMF Portwatch will report at least 40 finalized Strait of Hormuz ship transit calls on any single day by June 30, 2026. The market covers container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships reported by IMF Portwatch, with $1,200 in smart money tracked and one recent signal flagged.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,200.

Categories: Oil, Iran, Trump, Hormuz, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz

Notable Trades

Sharp trader fading rally

Sharp profitable cross-market trader is fading a strong Yes move by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 40¢.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $657k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.3M deployed across 165 markets.
  • Selling Yes after a +38.5% weekly move is effectively buying No at 40¢.

$1,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Top Holders

  1. 0x25db...28de Yes, $10,092 (50% win rate)
  2. 0x3c59...1766 Yes, $4,963 (71% win rate)
  3. 0x31bd...2649 No, $4,216
  4. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $3,400 (47% win rate)
  5. 0xb4c0...92d8 No, $3,217 (71% win rate)
  6. 0xc040...beac Yes, $3,117 (44% win rate)
  7. 0x726a...200c No, $3,001
  8. 0x68c2...1711 Yes, $2,891 (55% win rate)
  9. 0x00d2...fb50 No, $2,257 (41% win rate)
  10. 0xe8c4...395d Yes, $2,112 (96% win rate)

Related Theses

Hormuz blockade persists

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No US-Iran meeting by June

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WTI stays between $90 and $105

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Oil rallies, capped below $140

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Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

15dWill __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?$1,200 tracked1 signalOilIranTrumpHormuzGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz
Yes
63¢
No
38¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Price History — “Yes
64¢
38¢
12¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

1h ago

$1,200 on No at 40¢

40¢38¢2¢

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