Part of: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $17,030.

Categories: Oil, Iran, Trump, Hormuz, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz

Notable Trades

Sharp trader fading rally

Sharp profitable cross-market trader is fading a strong Yes move by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 40¢.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $657k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.3M deployed across 165 markets.
  • Selling Yes after a +38.5% weekly move is effectively buying No at 40¢.

$1,265 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Sharp bettor flips to NO

Sharp positive-P&L wallet with a 79% resolved-bet win rate is flipping from a prior Yes position into a $7.3k No bet across related Hormuz transit markets.

  • This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $7.2k lifetime.
  • They put $7.3k on No after closing a prior Yes position, signaling a clear view change.
  • The same wallet is active across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis on Hormuz ship traffic.

$5,589 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

Sharp bettor flips to NO

Sharp positive-P&L wallet with a 79% resolved-bet win rate is flipping from a prior Yes position into a $7.3k No bet across related Hormuz transit markets.

  • This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $7.2k lifetime.
  • They put $7.3k on No after closing a prior Yes position, signaling a clear view change.
  • The same wallet is active across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis on Hormuz ship traffic.

$7,257 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

Sharp trader fading rally

Sharp profitable cross-market trader is fading a strong Yes move by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 40¢.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $657k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.3M deployed across 165 markets.
  • Selling Yes after a +38.5% weekly move is effectively buying No at 40¢.

$1,719 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Sharp trader fading rally

Sharp profitable cross-market trader is fading a strong Yes move by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 40¢.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $657k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.3M deployed across 165 markets.
  • Selling Yes after a +38.5% weekly move is effectively buying No at 40¢.

$1,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Top Holders

  1. 0xc381...a661 Outcome 83371658, $32,806 (83% win rate)
  2. 0xf8fb...19dc Outcome 83371658, $8,970 (44% win rate)
  3. 0xe94b...5abe Outcome 83371658, $7,022 (73% win rate)
  4. 0xbd04...fbb0 Outcome 83371658, $6,954 (73% win rate)
  5. 0xf2c8...ba2f Outcome 83371658, $5,090
  6. 0x2c10...336c Outcome 83371658, $4,483
  7. 0x31bd...2649 Outcome 83371658, $4,216
  8. 0xbfbe...2b85 Outcome 83371658, $3,680
  9. 0x49e9...8f85 Outcome 83371658, $3,542 (98% win rate)
  10. 0x33ef...c498 Outcome 83371658, $3,500 (72% win rate)

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks

Covers 16 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Hormuz blockade persists

Covers 9 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Crude oil market arbitrage

Covers 11 related markets

Israel airspace closes briefly in June

Covers 4 related markets

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

ResolvedWill __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?$17,030 tracked5 signalsOilIranTrumpHormuzGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Notable Trades

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

60d ago

$1,265 on No at 40¢

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

62d ago

$5,589 on No at 55¢

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

62d ago

$7,257 on No at 55¢

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

64d ago

$1,719 on No at 40¢

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

70d ago

$1,200 on No at 40¢

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 16 related markets
US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 5 related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Hormuz blockade persists
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 9 related markets
Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…
Iran deal by mid-June
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 13 related markets
US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 12 related markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 11 related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 8 related markets
Iran closes its airspace by Ju…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 4 related markets
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…
Crude oil market arbitrage
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 11 related markets
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) …Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…
Israel airspace closes briefly in June
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 4 related markets
Israel closes its airspace by …Israel closes its airspace by …Israel closes its airspace by …