Part of: Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?
23 smart money signals detected, totaling $283,605.
Categories: Strait of Hormuz, Geopolitics, Trump, Iran Ceasefire, Politics, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Middle East, Hormuz
Notable Trades
Profitable cross-market trader
A highly experienced cross-market trader with $213k lifetime profit is taking a contrarian Yes position across related Hormuz markets, though this specific entry has moved against them.
- This bettor has traded 152 events and is up $213k lifetime across $3.1M invested.
- They are building a related-position thesis across 3 markets in this event, totaling about $9.5k.
- This trade is effectively a Yes buy at 17¢, well above the current 7¢ market price.
$1,669 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 61%
88% winner event thesis
Surface because a highly proven wallet with an 88% win rate and positive lifetime P&L is buying Yes as part of a broader three-market thesis.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $107k lifetime.
- They have put $8.9k across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader view on this event.
- Entry at 8¢ offers a high-upside position if the blockade is lifted before the deadline.
$2,539 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
Profitable 7-market bettor
Profitable wallet with a broad 7-market event thesis is re-entering No on a geopolitical market, though the entry is already expensive at 89¢.
- This bettor has won 74% of 94 resolved trades and is up $21K lifetime.
- They have put $20.8K across 7 related markets, suggesting a broad thesis on this event.
- Buying No at 89¢ shows high confidence that the blockade will not be lifted by the deadline.
$1,003 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Profitable cross-market bettor
A profitable 94-bet wallet with a strong track record is adding a $2.1k No bet as part of a broader 7-market Hormuz thesis.
- This bettor has won 74% of 94 resolved bets and is up $18.9k lifetime.
- They have placed $20.9k across 7 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 88¢ follows a sharp 16-point one-day move toward No.
$2,129 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Profitable event specialist
Serial cross-market trader with a 66% resolved win rate and $129k profit is adding a No position as part of a $200k five-market Hormuz thesis.
- This bettor has won 66% of resolved trades and is up $129k lifetime.
- They are trading a broad Hormuz thesis across 5 related markets with about $200k positioned in this event.
- Entry at 79¢ on No aligns with the market drifting against Yes over the past day and week.
$5,812 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
Sharp cluster buying No
Three wallets are buying No together, led by a highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 84% win rate and $418k P&L.
- A top wallet in this cluster wins 84% of resolved bets and is up $418k lifetime.
- Three wallets bought $12.7k of No at 77¢, all moving the same way.
- One trader has a long cross-market record: 41 events, 101 markets, and $1.5M total volume.
$12,662 on No
Proven cross-market sharp
Proven 84% winner with $418k profit is adding a fresh No position as part of a large cross-market thesis across the same event.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $418k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.5M deployed across 101 related markets.
- This $4.6k Buy No follows a closed Yes position, suggesting a fresh shift toward No at 77¢.
$4,620 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Serial cross-market geopolitical bettor
Serial cross-market trader with a profitable 65% record is building a much larger event-wide position against the blockade being lifted, despite this individual trade being modest.
- This bettor wins 65% of resolved trades and is up $82k lifetime.
- They have built $185k in exposure across 4 related markets in this event.
- This trade is effectively buying No at 66¢, signaling they expect no official lifting announcement by the deadline.
$1,341 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
85% winner builds NO thesis
A highly profitable 85% win-rate wallet is taking a cross-market No position on a major geopolitical event, with a long history of successful event-based trading.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $415K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.4M deployed across 97 markets.
- They bought No at 59¢, and the market now offers a cheaper follow near 54¢.
$1,768 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Profitable cross-market geopolitics bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader is adding a Yes position as part of a broader $141K thesis across four related Hormuz blockade markets.
- This bettor has traded 67 related event markets and is profitable, up about $61K across resolved bets.
- They have $141K positioned across 4 markets in this same event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Entry at 14¢ is a long-shot Yes bet with large upside if the blockade is lifted by the deadline.
$3,457 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
Top Holders
- 0xcdc5...afc9 — Outcome 10160116, $113,844 (17% win rate)
- 0x5925...b194 — Outcome 10160116, $61,596 (32% win rate)
- 0xa8b8...05cf — Outcome 10160116, $14,277
- 0x5666...c630 — Outcome 10160116, $11,121
- 0x0042...321e — Outcome 10160116, $10,096 (51% win rate)
- 0x5ae5...68e1 — Outcome 10160116, $10,000
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Outcome 10160116, $8,768 (79% win rate)
- 0x162f...798d — Outcome 10160116, $6,908 (69% win rate)
- 0x2478...2e62 — Outcome 10160116, $5,977 (61% win rate)
- 0xcb01...ead3 — Outcome 10160116, $5,672 (7% win rate)
