Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

This Polymarket tracks whether Donald Trump will have a diplomatic meeting with representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026. For the market to resolve Yes, Trump must be physically present and actively participate as a negotiator for the United States in a deliberate diplomatic meeting with Iranian representatives. PolySpotter also tracks smart money activity on this market, which currently shows $1,000 in tracked smart money and 1 recent signal.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,000.

Categories: Politics, Kushner, Vance, Witkoff, rubio, Geopolitics, Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Diplomatic meeting

Notable Trades

Repeat new wallet buyer

A 12-day-old wallet has repeatedly deployed meaningful size across positions and just bought Yes at 23¢ in a politically relevant market that has already moved up, making it a plausible informed-conviction new wallet despite limited resolved history.

  • This 12-day-old wallet has already triggered 4 large-bet alerts with $17.2k flagged total
  • bullet bought Yes at 23¢ and the market is already up to 25¢ after a 11.6-point daily move
  • The market is active but not huge, so a new wallet repeatedly sizing into politics is worth tracking

$1,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

Top Holders

  1. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $47,903 (48% win rate)
  2. 0xf99f...8742 Yes, $31,016 (25% win rate)
  3. 0x0042...321e Yes, $23,713 (39% win rate)
  4. 0x0a54...4a03 No, $20,181 (95% win rate)
  5. 0x9a39...b87f Yes, $8,889 (100% win rate)
  6. 0x2aac...a718 Yes, $7,050 (83% win rate)
  7. 0xe738...df65 No, $5,821 (67% win rate)
  8. 0x621e...6510 Yes, $5,809 (50% win rate)
  9. 0xa6b7...d5f3 Yes, $5,687 (55% win rate)
  10. 0xde7b...5f4b Yes, $5,571 (88% win rate)

Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

12d$1,000 tracked1 signalPoliticsKushnerVanceWitkoffrubioGeopoliticsIranIran CeasefireTrumpU.S. x IranDiplomatic meeting
Yes
22¢
No
79¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Price History — “No
100¢
85¢
70¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

2h ago

$1,000 on Yes at 23¢

23¢22¢1¢