What is the Hamas disarm prediction market?

It is a Polymarket market on whether Hamas will officially announce that it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026.

What outcome makes this market resolve to Yes?

The market resolves to Yes if widely acknowledged Hamas leadership or another credible authority officially announces a commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military in Gaza by the deadline.

Does partial disarmament count in this market?

Yes. The market description states that a public commitment to partial disarmament, such as surrendering some military capabilities, can qualify.

When does the Hamas disarm market resolve?

The resolution deadline is December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time.

Where can I track Hamas prediction market odds and smart money?

You can track the Yes/No market price and smart-money activity on the Polymarket market page and through PolySpotter alerts.

Part of: Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

This Polymarket prediction market asks whether Hamas will officially announce a commitment to disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. “Disarm” includes a partial or complete public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military; only credible leadership announcements qualify. The supplied metadata does not include live Yes/No prices, but PolySpotter tracks $1,281 in smart-money activity for this market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.

8 smart money signals detected, totaling $51,621.

Categories: Gaza, Geopolitics, Politics, Global, Foreign Policy, Israel

Notable Trades

82% win-rate serial trader backs No

A highly proven serial trader with an 82% win rate is selling Yes, reinforcing the market's recent move toward No despite the position's relatively modest size.

This bettor has won 82% of 1,486 resolved positions and earned about $779,000.
The $1,281 Yes sale converts to a No position at roughly 67¢, aligning with the recent 8-point one-day drop in Yes odds.
The trade is a directional signal from a serial cross-market trader active across 52 events and 64 markets.

$1,281 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Serial bettor adds to Hamas Yes

A highly experienced serial trader with 539 resolved bets and a 73% win rate added $10,354 to an existing Yes position during a 99x volume spike.

This bettor has traded 244 markets across 135 events, with a 73% win rate and $253,571 in realized profit.
They added $10,354 to an existing $92,856 Yes position at 40¢, signaling increased conviction.
The trades arrived during a 99x historical volume spike in a relatively quiet market.

$10,354 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%

92% winner adds to No

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 92% win rate is adding to an existing No position despite recent Yes momentum.

This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades across 75 bets and is up $29,736.
They added $2,571 to an existing No position, bringing total investment to over $13,000.
No is priced at 37¢ despite a 50.5% one-week rise in Yes, suggesting a contrarian view from a proven trader.

$1,146 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

92% winner adds to No

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 92% win rate is adding to an existing No position despite recent Yes momentum.

This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades across 75 bets and is up $29,736.
They added $2,571 to an existing No position, bringing total investment to over $13,000.
No is priced at 37¢ despite a 50.5% one-week rise in Yes, suggesting a contrarian view from a proven trader.

$2,571 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

Four-wallet bearish Hamas cluster

A four-wallet No cluster includes highly profitable bettors, an 11,000-dollar concentrated position, and a 27x volume spike in a politically consequential market.

Four wallets committed $11,163 to No, including bettors with 90% and 93% historical win rates.
The activity arrived during a 27x volume spike, while the market experienced sharp price movement.
Two wallets are adding to existing No positions, signaling increased conviction rather than a one-off trade.

$10,578 on No

Serial 90% winner adds to Yes

A serial cross-market trader with a 90% win rate is adding to an existing Yes position despite the market already trading at 88%.

This bettor has won 90% of 113 resolved trades and is up $150,168.
The wallet is adding to an existing Yes position, bringing its investment to roughly $5,920.
Yes has surged 72% over the past week, so the trade reflects continued conviction but offers limited value at 87¢.

$2,510 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%

Experienced wallets converge on Yes

Three experienced, high-volume wallets shifted nearly $20,000 toward Yes during a 15.4x volume spike, though their track records do not clearly prove an outsized edge.

Three wallets concentrated nearly $20,000 on Yes, including one trader adding to a large existing position.
The activity arrived during a 15.4x historical volume spike, suggesting a meaningful shift in positioning.
Yes was bought around 40¢–43¢ despite a 42% market price, while the market had fallen 13% over the past week.

$19,991 on Yes

Serial trader buys No

A proven serial cross-market trader with a 73% win rate placed a fresh $3,190 No position in a relatively thin geopolitical market.

This bettor has won 73% of 164 resolved trades and is up $571,000 lifetime.
The trader committed $3,190 to No, a substantial position relative to the market's $6,090 liquidity.
No was bought at 69¢ despite recent market momentum toward Yes, signaling a confident contrarian view.

$3,190 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%