Israel military action against Iran by...?
16 signals across 2 markets · $68,876 tracked · resolves Apr 21, 2026
This event tracks Polymarket prediction markets on whether Israel will conduct a qualifying drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian territory by April 14 or April 21, 2026. PolySpotter is monitoring $68,876 in smart money activity across the event, including signals from a 17-wallet geopolitics cluster, profitable event-thesis traders, and high win-rate bettors leaning into the NO side.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- 17-wallet geopolitics cluster
A highly active, profitable cross-market trader from a 17-wallet funded cluster just put $6.3k on No in a geopolitics market, suggesting coordinated conviction behind the 86% side.
$6,253Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 11.0 - 74% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a 74% win rate and nearly $200k in profit is taking a fresh No position in a major geopolitics market.
$1,215Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 9.0 - 74% winner betting NO
A high-volume geopolitical market drew a buy from a wallet with a strong long-term record and extensive cross-market event trading, making this a credible thesis-driven position worth watching.
$1,042Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 9.0 - 74% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a strong long-term record bought No at 53¢ in this geopolitics market, making it a credible thesis worth following despite the modest single-trade size.
$2,273Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 9.0 - Profitable event-thesis trader
A proven profitable cross-market trader with a 74% win rate is expressing a directional thesis on this Israel-Iran event by selling No at 83¢, equivalent to buying Yes at 17¢.
$1,659Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 9.0 - 3-wallet Yes surge
Three wallets piled into Yes with enough size to move the market sharply, and one of them is a proven profitable trader buying the low-probability side at 12-17¢.
$7,306Score: 6.8 - Repeat new whale on No
A repeat new wallet is deploying meaningful size across related Israel-Iran markets, and this fresh $10.8k buy on No suggests concentrated conviction despite only limited history.
$10,832Wallet win rate: 85%Score: 6.5 - 86% winner buys No
A high-win-rate wallet with 77 resolved bets and $333k profit just bought No on a fast-moving geopolitics market during a major volume spike.
$6,020Wallet win rate: 90%Score: 6.1 - 86% winner adds correlated NO
A high-win-rate wallet with 77 resolved bets is adding a correlated geopolitical position by buying No at 87¢, aligning with an 86% market view in a liquid market.
$1,482Wallet win rate: 90%Score: 5.0 - Proven geopolitics grinder
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a 74% win rate and $194k profit is buying No on a major geopolitics market, making this a credible thesis worth tracking despite only a single signal.
$3,071Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x35bbba…009b$25,383 · 2 markets · 6 alerts · 72% wins
- 0x7f9e2d…3a0e$13,927 · 2 markets · 5 alerts · 90% wins
- 0xe36f57…cd91$10,832 · 1 market · 1 alert · 85% wins
- 0x162f6f…798d$6,253 · 1 market · 1 alert · 69% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$5,174 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 79% wins
FAQs
What are the odds Israel takes military action against Iran by April 2026?
The event hub tracks live Polymarket odds across the related deadlines, including markets for April 14 and April 21, 2026. Odds can move quickly as geopolitical headlines, official statements, and trader positioning change.
What outcomes are being traded in this Israel-Iran prediction market event?
Traders are betting on whether Israel initiates a qualifying drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Iranian ground territory before each listed deadline. The event includes separate child markets for April 14 and April 21, 2026.
What is the smart money doing on this event?
PolySpotter has tracked $68,876 in smart money activity and 16 signals across the event. Recent alerts include a 17-wallet geopolitics cluster, a profitable event-thesis trader, and multiple 74% win-rate geopolitics bettors, with notable NO-side activity.
When does this Israel military action against Iran event resolve?
The listed event resolution is by April 21, 2026, with individual child markets resolving according to their own deadlines. Each market resolves YES only if the specified qualifying Israeli strike occurs before that market’s cutoff.
What counts as “military action” for this Polymarket event?
A qualifying action is defined as Israeli military forces launching aerial bombs, drones, or missiles, including cruise or ballistic missiles, that impact Iranian terrestrial territory. Actions outside that definition may not qualify for resolution.