Israel military action against Iran by...?
16 signals across 2 markets · $68,876 tracked · resolves Apr 21, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- 17-wallet geopolitics cluster
A highly active, profitable cross-market trader from a 17-wallet funded cluster just put $6.3k on No in a geopolitics market, suggesting coordinated conviction behind the 86% side.
$6,253Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 11.0 - 74% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a 74% win rate and nearly $200k in profit is taking a fresh No position in a major geopolitics market.
$1,215Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 9.0 - 74% winner betting NO
A high-volume geopolitical market drew a buy from a wallet with a strong long-term record and extensive cross-market event trading, making this a credible thesis-driven position worth watching.
$1,042Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 9.0 - 74% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a strong long-term record bought No at 53¢ in this geopolitics market, making it a credible thesis worth following despite the modest single-trade size.
$2,273Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 9.0 - Profitable event-thesis trader
A proven profitable cross-market trader with a 74% win rate is expressing a directional thesis on this Israel-Iran event by selling No at 83¢, equivalent to buying Yes at 17¢.
$1,659Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 9.0 - 3-wallet Yes surge
Three wallets piled into Yes with enough size to move the market sharply, and one of them is a proven profitable trader buying the low-probability side at 12-17¢.
$7,306Score: 6.8 - Repeat new whale on No
A repeat new wallet is deploying meaningful size across related Israel-Iran markets, and this fresh $10.8k buy on No suggests concentrated conviction despite only limited history.
$10,832Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 6.5 - 86% winner buys No
A high-win-rate wallet with 77 resolved bets and $333k profit just bought No on a fast-moving geopolitics market during a major volume spike.
$6,020Wallet win rate: 88%Score: 6.1 - 86% winner adds correlated NO
A high-win-rate wallet with 77 resolved bets is adding a correlated geopolitical position by buying No at 87¢, aligning with an 86% market view in a liquid market.
$1,482Wallet win rate: 88%Score: 5.0 - Proven geopolitics grinder
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a 74% win rate and $194k profit is buying No on a major geopolitics market, making this a credible thesis worth tracking despite only a single signal.
$3,071Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x35bbba…009b$25,383 · 2 markets · 6 alerts · 74% wins
- 0x7f9e2d…3a0e$13,927 · 2 markets · 5 alerts · 88% wins
- 0xe36f57…cd91$10,832 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0x162f6f…798d$6,253 · 1 market · 1 alert · 69% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$5,174 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 85% wins