Part of: Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

This prediction market asks whether Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf will sign a written agreement involving both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran by July 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,924 in smart money activity on this market, with 1 signal and a recent alert showing an 82% winner buying NO. The market resolves to YES only if Ghalibaf signs the qualifying agreement in an official capacity; otherwise it resolves to NO.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,924.

Categories: Trump, Peace Deal, geopolitcs, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Politics

Notable Trades

82% winner buying NO

A highly profitable 82% lifetime winner is effectively buying No at 10¢ in a thin market, backed by a strong serial cross-market track record.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $775K lifetime.
  • They are a serious cross-market trader, active across 61 events and $3.4M in tracked volume.
  • This is effectively a No entry at 10¢ in a quiet market, with the trade over 2x recent 24h volume.

$1,924 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Top Holders

  1. 0x6c64...ac0b No, $2,000
  2. 0x0b65...293e Yes, $1,168 (92% win rate)
  3. 0x836f...906e Yes, $838 (100% win rate)
  4. 0xac9b...d4c5 No, $633 (38% win rate)
  5. 0x1ee9...197f No, $600 (72% win rate)
  6. 0x97ea...3363 Yes, $595 (70% win rate)
  7. 0xfc2f...10c7 Yes, $545 (82% win rate)
  8. 0xc7d0...1f8a Yes, $476
  9. 0x47c1...825f No, $400 (64% win rate)
  10. 0x9352...2227 Yes, $300 (64% win rate)

Related Theses

Hormuz blockade persists

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No Iran meeting by June

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WTI stays between $90 and $105

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Crude stays rangebound through June

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Iran peace deal won’t happen

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Iran closes airspace mid-May

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Iran deal by mid-June

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Iran surrenders uranium in May

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Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

45dWho will sign U.S. x Iran deal?$1,924 tracked1 signalTrumpPeace DealgeopolitcsIranU.S. x IranPolitics
Yes
89¢
No
12¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “Yes
96¢
74¢
52¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

4h ago

$1,924 on No at 10¢

10¢12¢2¢

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