Part of: Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
7 smart money signals detected, totaling $19,964.
Categories: Trump, Peace Deal, geopolitcs, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Politics
Notable Trades
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought Yes after a dramatic repricing in a geopolitical market, with the position already moving from 10¢ to 14¢.
- This bettor is up $727k lifetime and has traded 135 markets across 63 events.
- They bought Yes at 10¢ after the market collapsed from its prior 87–90¢ range.
- They have $8.4k positioned across three related markets in this event.
$5,256 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 52%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought Yes after a dramatic repricing in a geopolitical market, with the position already moving from 10¢ to 14¢.
- This bettor is up $727k lifetime and has traded 135 markets across 63 events.
- They bought Yes at 10¢ after the market collapsed from its prior 87–90¢ range.
- They have $8.4k positioned across three related markets in this event.
$2,349 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 52%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought Yes after a dramatic repricing in a geopolitical market, with the position already moving from 10¢ to 14¢.
- This bettor is up $727k lifetime and has traded 135 markets across 63 events.
- They bought Yes at 10¢ after the market collapsed from its prior 87–90¢ range.
- They have $8.4k positioned across three related markets in this event.
$1,207 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 52%
79% winner buying NO
Sharp-wallet override: this bettor has a 79% resolved-bet win rate and positive P&L, making a $3.3k contrarian No buy after a sharp Yes move.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $6.4k lifetime.
- They put $3.3k on No after Yes jumped 21 points in a day.
- Entry at 72¢ implies they see No as still underpriced despite the market now showing 66¢.
$1,118 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
79% winner buying NO
Sharp-wallet override: this bettor has a 79% resolved-bet win rate and positive P&L, making a $3.3k contrarian No buy after a sharp Yes move.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $6.4k lifetime.
- They put $3.3k on No after Yes jumped 21 points in a day.
- Entry at 72¢ implies they see No as still underpriced despite the market now showing 66¢.
$3,252 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume political bettor placed a near-$5k thin-market Yes bet while also positioning across a related Iran-deal market.
- This bettor has won 71% of 437 resolved trades and is up about $264k lifetime.
- The $4.9k Yes buy was almost a full day’s normal volume in a thin market with only about $2.8k liquidity.
- They are also positioned across a related market, suggesting a broader Iran-deal thesis.
$4,859 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%
82% winner buying NO
A highly profitable 82% lifetime winner is effectively buying No at 10¢ in a thin market, backed by a strong serial cross-market track record.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $775K lifetime.
- They are a serious cross-market trader, active across 61 events and $3.4M in tracked volume.
- This is effectively a No entry at 10¢ in a quiet market, with the trade over 2x recent 24h volume.
$1,924 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Top Holders
- 0x7447...a16d — Outcome 10738485, $15,709 (52% win rate)
- 0xd426...334a — Outcome 10738485, $1,648 (48% win rate)
- 0xdf1d...0171 — Outcome 10738485, $1,461
- 0x69c9...3b29 — Outcome 10738485, $1,038 (75% win rate)
- 0x4934...5951 — Outcome 10738485, $1,000
- 0xc7d0...1f8a — Outcome 10738485, $971
- 0x9ad0...bf3d — Outcome 10738485, $779 (66% win rate)
- 0x3131...8db2 — Outcome 10738485, $565
- 0x4550...2398 — Outcome 10738485, $469
- 0xc602...7fc1 — Outcome 10738485, $458 (43% win rate)
Related Theses
Hormuz blockade persists
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Crude oil market arbitrage
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WTI stays between $90 and $105
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Iran deal by mid-June
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Iran peace deal won’t happen
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Calendar arbitrage on talks
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Iran closes airspace mid-May
Covers 8 related markets
Iran deal by June end
Covers 3 related markets
