Part of: Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?

Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,064.

Categories: Oil, Iran, Hormuz, Strait of Hormuz, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Contrarian repeat trader adding

A high-volume cross-market trader is adding to a contrarian No position after a major price collapse in a thin Strait of Hormuz transit market.

  • This bettor has traded across 128 markets with $1.15M in activity and is up about $43.7K overall.
  • They are adding to an existing No position after No fell from roughly 88¢ to 35¢.
  • The market is fairly thin, so a $1.1K add is meaningful against about $5.3K of 24h volume.

$1,064 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 Outcome 72554056, $14,870
  2. 0xdbd0...8c1c Outcome 72554056, $3,557 (28% win rate)
  3. 0xe1a3...24ea Outcome 72554056, $1,760 (12% win rate)
  4. 0x71ab...f015 Outcome 72554056, $527 (63% win rate)
  5. 0xe278...b608 Outcome 72554056, $265 (56% win rate)
  6. 0x2d61...1fa7 Outcome 72554056, $200 (78% win rate)
  7. 0xd9fe...db0d Outcome 72554056, $112
  8. 0x0777...4b7f Outcome 72554056, $103
  9. 0x2213...492c Outcome 72554056, $100
  10. 0x020c...f6c9 Outcome 72554056, $50

Related Theses

Iran deal lands mid-June

Covers 10 related markets

Iran peace deal by mid-June

Covers 9 related markets

US-Iran talks happen by April

Covers 6 related markets

Iran blockade ends in October

Covers 8 related markets

Iran talks occur in late July

Covers 5 related markets

Hormuz traffic hits forty ships

Covers 1 related market

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Hormuz traffic normalizes by May

Covers 1 related market

Covers 3 related markets

Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?

ResolvedAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?$1,064 tracked1 signalOilIranHormuzStrait of HormuzGeopolitics

This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Price History — “Yes
102¢
97¢
93¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?

59d ago

$1,064 on No at 35¢

Related Theses