JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by...?
11 signals across 2 markets · $77,339 tracked · resolves Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between JD Vance as representative of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- 5-wallet Yes pile-in
Five wallets collectively put $17.5k into Yes during a major volume spike on a fast-moving political market, signaling coordinated conviction despite mixed individual track records.
$17,534Score: 17.0 - 4-wallet Yes cluster
Four wallets piled into Yes during a 74x volume spike and sharp repricing, suggesting coordinated conviction on a politically relevant market despite mixed individual track records.
$15,534Score: 16.9 - 3-wallet breakout buyer cluster
Three wallets piled into Yes for $21.7k during a massive volume and price breakout, including one large buyer who got filled as low as 61¢ before the market jumped to 90¢.
$21,657Score: 11.7 - 4-wallet No pile-in
Four wallets piled into No as the market sharply repriced, with one very new wallet joining a coordinated move that pushed Yes down nearly 30 points.
$5,756Score: 10.9 - 84% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A proven 84% win-rate cross-market trader bought No with nearly $7.8k during a major volume surge in a fast-moving geopolitics market, suggesting informed conviction despite paying above the current price.
$7,812Wallet win rate: 87%Score: 7.8 - Profitable breakout buyer
Surface this alert because a highly active profitable cross-market trader bought before a sharp volume-driven breakout, and the position is already moving in their favor.
$1,401Wallet win rate: 58%Score: 7.6 - Repeat new-wallet buyer
A 4-day-old wallet has repeatedly put meaningful size into this market and bought into a sharp move, suggesting fresh conviction despite being early in its track record.
$1,028Wallet win rate: 0%Score: 6.9 - 88% win-rate seller
A high-win-rate bettor with a strong long-term edge sold Yes in the middle of a major volume spike and sharp price move, which translates into a buyable No signal around 69¢.
$2,800Wallet win rate: 85%Score: 6.1 - 84% win-rate event bettor
A proven bettor with an 84% win rate is taking a cross-market event view here, and their sell of No converts into a fresh Yes buy in a market already moving higher.
$1,073Wallet win rate: 87%Score: 4.0 - 84% win-rate serial trader
A proven 84% win-rate trader with broad cross-market activity sold No here, which translates to a Yes buy around 34¢ as the market is already moving sharply higher.
$1,450Wallet win rate: 87%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x4133f8…ea5d$10,335 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 87% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$2,800 · 1 market · 1 alert · 85% wins
- 0x8f42ae…b88f$1,401 · 1 market · 1 alert · 58% wins
- 0xdd0891…5ee9$1,292 · 1 market · 1 alert · 97% wins
- 0xbf74cb…d8bc$1,028 · 1 market · 1 alert · 0% wins