JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by...?
11 signals across 2 markets · $77,339 tracked · resolves Apr 30, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether JD Vance, representing the United States, will physically attend and actively participate in a diplomatic meeting with Iran by two deadlines: April 10 and April 30. Traders are pricing both timing outcomes, with PolySpotter tracking $77,339 in smart money activity and recent signals including Yes pile-ins, No buying, and an 84% win-rate geopolitics bettor.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- 5-wallet Yes pile-in
Five wallets collectively put $17.5k into Yes during a major volume spike on a fast-moving political market, signaling coordinated conviction despite mixed individual track records.
$17,534Score: 17.0 - 4-wallet Yes cluster
Four wallets piled into Yes during a 74x volume spike and sharp repricing, suggesting coordinated conviction on a politically relevant market despite mixed individual track records.
$15,534Score: 16.9 - 3-wallet breakout buyer cluster
Three wallets piled into Yes for $21.7k during a massive volume and price breakout, including one large buyer who got filled as low as 61¢ before the market jumped to 90¢.
$21,657Score: 11.7 - 4-wallet No pile-in
Four wallets piled into No as the market sharply repriced, with one very new wallet joining a coordinated move that pushed Yes down nearly 30 points.
$5,756Score: 10.9 - 84% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A proven 84% win-rate cross-market trader bought No with nearly $7.8k during a major volume surge in a fast-moving geopolitics market, suggesting informed conviction despite paying above the current price.
$7,812Wallet win rate: 78%Score: 7.8 - Profitable breakout buyer
Surface this alert because a highly active profitable cross-market trader bought before a sharp volume-driven breakout, and the position is already moving in their favor.
$1,401Wallet win rate: 58%Score: 7.6 - Repeat new-wallet buyer
A 4-day-old wallet has repeatedly put meaningful size into this market and bought into a sharp move, suggesting fresh conviction despite being early in its track record.
$1,028Wallet win rate: 0%Score: 6.9 - 88% win-rate seller
A high-win-rate bettor with a strong long-term edge sold Yes in the middle of a major volume spike and sharp price move, which translates into a buyable No signal around 69¢.
$2,800Wallet win rate: 79%Score: 6.1 - 84% win-rate event bettor
A proven bettor with an 84% win rate is taking a cross-market event view here, and their sell of No converts into a fresh Yes buy in a market already moving higher.
$1,073Wallet win rate: 78%Score: 4.0 - 84% win-rate serial trader
A proven 84% win-rate trader with broad cross-market activity sold No here, which translates to a Yes buy around 34¢ as the market is already moving sharply higher.
$1,450Wallet win rate: 78%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x4133f8…ea5d$10,335 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 78% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$2,800 · 1 market · 1 alert · 79% wins
- 0x8f42ae…b88f$1,401 · 1 market · 1 alert · 58% wins
- 0xdd0891…5ee9$1,292 · 1 market · 1 alert · 97% wins
- 0xbf74cb…d8bc$1,028 · 1 market · 1 alert · 0% wins
FAQs
What are the JD Vance Iran meeting prediction markets about?
These markets ask whether JD Vance will take part in an official diplomatic meeting with Iran as a U.S. representative by specific dates. The event includes separate markets for an April 10 deadline and an April 30 deadline.
What counts as a qualifying JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran?
To resolve Yes, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States. The meeting must involve official representatives acting in a diplomatic capacity.
What is the smart money doing on this event?
PolySpotter has tracked $77,339 in smart money across the event, with 11 signals. Recent alerts show both bullish and bearish activity, including a 5-wallet Yes pile-in, a 4-wallet Yes cluster, a 3-wallet breakout buyer cluster, and a 4-wallet No pile-in.
Are high-performing geopolitics bettors active in this market?
Yes. One recent PolySpotter alert flagged an 84% win-rate geopolitics bettor, suggesting that experienced political and foreign policy traders are participating in the event.
When do the JD Vance Iran meeting markets resolve?
The child markets resolve based on whether a qualifying meeting happens by their listed deadlines, including April 10 and April 30. If no qualifying meeting occurs by a market’s cutoff time, that market resolves No.