Part of: JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by...?

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?

9 smart money signals detected, totaling $54,281.

Categories: Foreign Policy, Iran, Geopolitics, Vance, Iran Ceasefire, Politics, Trump

Notable Trades

Repeat new-wallet buyer

A 4-day-old wallet has repeatedly put meaningful size into this market and bought into a sharp move, suggesting fresh conviction despite being early in its track record.

  • This 4-day-old wallet has already been flagged 3 times and put nearly $7.0k into notable bets
  • They bought Yes at 21¢ after a fast 19-point price drop, a sign they were willing to step into volatility
  • The market is active but not especially deep, so a $1.0k buy into $12.7k liquidity still shows real conviction

$1,028 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 0%

97% win-rate political sharp

A serial cross-market bettor with a 97% win rate bought No at 89¢ in a politically relevant market, making this a credible sharp follow despite the modest trade size.

  • This bettor wins 97% of resolved trades with $66k profit across 190 settled markets
  • They trade heavily across related events, with $1.53M deployed over 199 markets and 149 events
  • Bought No at 89¢ in a real political market, signaling they still see the chance of a JD Vance-Iran meeting as very low

$1,292 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%

84% win-rate event bettor

A proven bettor with an 84% win rate is taking a cross-market event view here, and their sell of No converts into a fresh Yes buy in a market already moving higher.

  • This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and has made $21.8k in profit
  • They trade across many related markets in the same events, with 25 events and 32 markets tracked
  • This trade effectively buys Yes around 35¢ while the market is already up 23% in a day

$1,073 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

84% win-rate serial trader

A proven 84% win-rate trader with broad cross-market activity sold No here, which translates to a Yes buy around 34¢ as the market is already moving sharply higher.

  • This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades across 43 markets and has traded nearly $249k across 25 events
  • Their sell of No at 66¢ converts to buying Yes around 34¢, while Yes is already up 28 points in the last day
  • The market has strong recent flow with $337k of 24h volume, so this looks like a sharp trader joining real momentum rather than random activity

$1,450 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

5-wallet Yes pile-in

Five wallets collectively put $17.5k into Yes during a major volume spike on a fast-moving political market, signaling coordinated conviction despite mixed individual track records.

  • Five wallets bought the same side for $17.5k in a short burst as volume ran 45.8x above normal.
  • This is a live political market with strong momentum: Yes moved sharply this week and 24-hour volume is over $319k.
  • Several wallets are re-entering after previously trading this market, and one new 3-day-old wallet is already betting size.

$17,534 on Yes

84% win-rate geopolitics bettor

A proven 84% win-rate cross-market trader bought No with nearly $7.8k during a major volume surge in a fast-moving geopolitics market, suggesting informed conviction despite paying above the current price.

  • This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades across 43 markets and has traded 25 related events
  • bullets
  • They put nearly $7.8k on No during a 45.8x volume spike as this market repriced sharply
  • Buying No at 69¢ implies they saw the chance of a meeting as materially lower than the market did at the time

$7,812 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

4-wallet Yes cluster

Four wallets piled into Yes during a 74x volume spike and sharp repricing, suggesting coordinated conviction on a politically relevant market despite mixed individual track records.

  • Four wallets bought the same side for $15.5k during a 73.9x volume spike as the market repriced fast.
  • One wallet dropped $9.2k in a single buy, showing concentrated conviction even with $45k liquidity.
  • Several wallets had traded this market before and re-entered, which looks more like renewed conviction than a first-time punt.

$15,534 on Yes

88% win-rate seller

A high-win-rate bettor with a strong long-term edge sold Yes in the middle of a major volume spike and sharp price move, which translates into a buyable No signal around 69¢.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $359k lifetime.
  • The trade hit during a 74x volume spike and a fast 19-point move, showing strong market repricing.
  • Selling Yes at 31¢ is equivalent to buying No at 69¢, with current No still near 64¢.

$2,800 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

4-wallet No pile-in

Four wallets piled into No as the market sharply repriced, with one very new wallet joining a coordinated move that pushed Yes down nearly 30 points.

  • Four wallets all bet No for $5.8k total as the market swung hard, knocking Yes down about 29 points.
  • One wallet is only about 1.5 days old and is already making sizable bets, which can signal fresh conviction.
  • Two trades got in around 49-52¢ on No, while the market is now 71¢, showing the cluster caught the move early.

$5,756 on No

Top Holders

  1. 0x9a39...b87f Outcome 13974046, $27,659 (100% win rate)
  2. 0xde7b...5f4b Outcome 13974046, $20,000 (82% win rate)
  3. 0x1604...ff0e Outcome 13974046, $7,001 (79% win rate)
  4. 0xd81b...5e32 Outcome 13974046, $4,196 (67% win rate)
  5. 0x2570...f79c Outcome 13974046, $2,329
  6. 0x2e42...0dfe Outcome 13974046, $2,137
  7. 0x8f7a...db40 Outcome 13974046, $2,000 (77% win rate)
  8. 0x4d06...0238 Outcome 13974046, $1,000
  9. 0x955e...5f7f Outcome 13974046, $1,000
  10. 0xce94...edac Outcome 13974046, $1,000

Related Theses

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

No US-Iran meeting by June

Covers 14 related markets

Iran keeps airspace open

Covers 4 related markets

Iran peace deal by June

Covers 6 related markets

Blockade lifted in late May

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?

ResolvedJD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by...?$54,281 tracked9 signalsForeign PolicyIranGeopoliticsVanceIran CeasefirePoliticsTrump

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between JD Vance as representative of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?

43d ago

$1,028 on Yes at 21¢

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?

44d ago

$1,292 on No at 89¢

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?

45d ago

$1,073 on Yes at 35¢

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?

45d ago

$1,450 on Yes at 34¢

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?

45d ago

$17,534 on Yes at 40¢

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?

45d ago

$7,812 on No at 69¢

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?

45d ago

$15,534 on Yes at 37¢

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?

45d ago

$2,800 on No at 69¢

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?

45d ago

$5,756 on No at 51¢

Related Theses