Part of: JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by...?
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?
9 smart money signals detected, totaling $54,281.
Categories: Foreign Policy, Iran, Geopolitics, Vance, Iran Ceasefire, Politics, Trump
Notable Trades
Repeat new-wallet buyer
A 4-day-old wallet has repeatedly put meaningful size into this market and bought into a sharp move, suggesting fresh conviction despite being early in its track record.
- This 4-day-old wallet has already been flagged 3 times and put nearly $7.0k into notable bets
- They bought Yes at 21¢ after a fast 19-point price drop, a sign they were willing to step into volatility
- The market is active but not especially deep, so a $1.0k buy into $12.7k liquidity still shows real conviction
$1,028 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 0%
97% win-rate political sharp
A serial cross-market bettor with a 97% win rate bought No at 89¢ in a politically relevant market, making this a credible sharp follow despite the modest trade size.
- This bettor wins 97% of resolved trades with $66k profit across 190 settled markets
- They trade heavily across related events, with $1.53M deployed over 199 markets and 149 events
- Bought No at 89¢ in a real political market, signaling they still see the chance of a JD Vance-Iran meeting as very low
$1,292 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%
84% win-rate event bettor
A proven bettor with an 84% win rate is taking a cross-market event view here, and their sell of No converts into a fresh Yes buy in a market already moving higher.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and has made $21.8k in profit
- They trade across many related markets in the same events, with 25 events and 32 markets tracked
- This trade effectively buys Yes around 35¢ while the market is already up 23% in a day
$1,073 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
84% win-rate serial trader
A proven 84% win-rate trader with broad cross-market activity sold No here, which translates to a Yes buy around 34¢ as the market is already moving sharply higher.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades across 43 markets and has traded nearly $249k across 25 events
- Their sell of No at 66¢ converts to buying Yes around 34¢, while Yes is already up 28 points in the last day
- The market has strong recent flow with $337k of 24h volume, so this looks like a sharp trader joining real momentum rather than random activity
$1,450 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
5-wallet Yes pile-in
Five wallets collectively put $17.5k into Yes during a major volume spike on a fast-moving political market, signaling coordinated conviction despite mixed individual track records.
- Five wallets bought the same side for $17.5k in a short burst as volume ran 45.8x above normal.
- This is a live political market with strong momentum: Yes moved sharply this week and 24-hour volume is over $319k.
- Several wallets are re-entering after previously trading this market, and one new 3-day-old wallet is already betting size.
$17,534 on Yes
84% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A proven 84% win-rate cross-market trader bought No with nearly $7.8k during a major volume surge in a fast-moving geopolitics market, suggesting informed conviction despite paying above the current price.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades across 43 markets and has traded 25 related events
- bullets
- They put nearly $7.8k on No during a 45.8x volume spike as this market repriced sharply
- Buying No at 69¢ implies they saw the chance of a meeting as materially lower than the market did at the time
$7,812 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
4-wallet Yes cluster
Four wallets piled into Yes during a 74x volume spike and sharp repricing, suggesting coordinated conviction on a politically relevant market despite mixed individual track records.
- Four wallets bought the same side for $15.5k during a 73.9x volume spike as the market repriced fast.
- One wallet dropped $9.2k in a single buy, showing concentrated conviction even with $45k liquidity.
- Several wallets had traded this market before and re-entered, which looks more like renewed conviction than a first-time punt.
$15,534 on Yes
88% win-rate seller
A high-win-rate bettor with a strong long-term edge sold Yes in the middle of a major volume spike and sharp price move, which translates into a buyable No signal around 69¢.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $359k lifetime.
- The trade hit during a 74x volume spike and a fast 19-point move, showing strong market repricing.
- Selling Yes at 31¢ is equivalent to buying No at 69¢, with current No still near 64¢.
$2,800 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%
4-wallet No pile-in
Four wallets piled into No as the market sharply repriced, with one very new wallet joining a coordinated move that pushed Yes down nearly 30 points.
- Four wallets all bet No for $5.8k total as the market swung hard, knocking Yes down about 29 points.
- One wallet is only about 1.5 days old and is already making sizable bets, which can signal fresh conviction.
- Two trades got in around 49-52¢ on No, while the market is now 71¢, showing the cluster caught the move early.
$5,756 on No
Top Holders
- 0x9a39...b87f — Outcome 13974046, $27,659 (100% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Outcome 13974046, $20,000 (82% win rate)
- 0x1604...ff0e — Outcome 13974046, $7,001 (79% win rate)
- 0xd81b...5e32 — Outcome 13974046, $4,196 (67% win rate)
- 0x2570...f79c — Outcome 13974046, $2,329
- 0x2e42...0dfe — Outcome 13974046, $2,137
- 0x8f7a...db40 — Outcome 13974046, $2,000 (77% win rate)
- 0x4d06...0238 — Outcome 13974046, $1,000
- 0x955e...5f7f — Outcome 13974046, $1,000
- 0xce94...edac — Outcome 13974046, $1,000
Related Theses
No US-Iran meeting by June
Covers 14 related markets
Iran keeps airspace open
Covers 4 related markets
Iran peace deal by June
Covers 6 related markets
Blockade lifted in late May
Covers 5 related markets
