Part of: US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?

This Polymarket market asks whether the US-Iran ceasefire will continue through September 30, 2026. It resolves to “No” if the United States carries out a qualifying air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly impacting Iran; otherwise, it resolves to “Yes.” Live odds were not included in the supplied metadata, though PolySpotter tracks smart money activity and recent wallet signals for this market.

This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

8 smart money signals detected, totaling $52,373.

Categories: Iran, Trump, Israel, Military, Politics, Geopolitics, Middle East, Israel x Iran, Military Actions, Military Strikes

Notable Trades

Six-wallet funded cluster

A six-wallet common-funder cluster is taking a fresh No position in a consequential geopolitical market, though the individual trader's historical record does not show a strong pricing edge.

  • Six wallets linked to the same funder are associated with this $1,287 position, a strong coordinated-flow signal.
  • The trader has participated across 48 events and 76 markets, indicating recurring activity rather than a one-off bet.
  • No was bought at 32¢ and is now priced around 34¢, suggesting modest early confirmation of the position.

$4,421 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Seven-wallet funded Yes cluster

Seven wallets sharing a funder are aligned on Yes, though this individual trade is an add to an existing position rather than fresh conviction.

  • Seven wallets sharing a funder are positioned on Yes, a meaningful coordinated signal.
  • This bettor is adding $1,300 to an existing Yes position at 65¢.
  • The wallet has 263 resolved trades and is up $59,052, but its 68% win rate is only moderate evidence of an edge.

$1,300 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%

11-wallet coordinated Yes buying

Eleven linked wallets are accumulating Yes, creating a meaningful coordinated signal despite the trader already holding a Yes position.

  • Eleven wallets sharing a funder have placed aligned bets on Yes, a strong coordinated-conviction signal.
  • This wallet is adding to an existing Yes position at 65¢ rather than taking a one-off flyer.
  • The bettor has an 80% win rate across 1,449 resolved trades, though its average winning entry price is also high at 82¢.

$1,083 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%

Six-wallet funded cluster

A six-wallet common-funder cluster is taking a fresh No position in a consequential geopolitical market, though the individual trader's historical record does not show a strong pricing edge.

  • Six wallets linked to the same funder are associated with this $1,287 position, a strong coordinated-flow signal.
  • The trader has participated across 48 events and 76 markets, indicating recurring activity rather than a one-off bet.
  • No was bought at 32¢ and is now priced around 34¢, suggesting modest early confirmation of the position.

$1,287 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Six-wallet cluster scaling into No

A six-wallet funded cluster is concentrating $9,294 into No, with two established holders adding to sizable positions despite limited price movement.

  • Six linked wallets have coordinated around the No outcome, with three deploying $9,294 in a short window.
  • Two wallets are adding to existing No positions, bringing their combined exposure to roughly $26,900.
  • The No entry was 31–32¢ while the market is only at 33%, suggesting the trade is still near its original price.

$9,294 on No

Five-wallet funded cluster buys No

Five wallets sharing a funder are building a No position, providing a notable coordinated directional signal despite the individual trader's weak track record.

  • Five wallets linked to the same funder have collectively added to the No side.
  • This wallet is adding to an existing No position at 31¢, implying meaningful conviction that U.S. military action occurs by September 30.
  • The individual bettor has a 43% win rate, so the coordinated-wallet signal matters more than the trader's personal record.

$1,231 on No | Wallet win rate: 43%

Serial trader scales into Yes

A serial cross-market trader made a large additional Yes purchase in a thin market, though the wallet's track record does not show a clear odds-adjusted edge.

  • The trader added $29,080 to an existing Yes position worth about $50,000, showing strong conviction.
  • The purchase was made at 58¢ and Yes has since risen to 63¢, while the bet represented roughly 747% of the flagged 24-hour volume.
  • This wallet has traded across 159 markets and 100 events, with 1,188 resolved bets and $202,418 in reported profit.

$4,676 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

Serial trader scales into Yes

A serial cross-market trader made a large additional Yes purchase in a thin market, though the wallet's track record does not show a clear odds-adjusted edge.

  • The trader added $29,080 to an existing Yes position worth about $50,000, showing strong conviction.
  • The purchase was made at 58¢ and Yes has since risen to 63¢, while the bet represented roughly 747% of the flagged 24-hour volume.
  • This wallet has traded across 159 markets and 100 events, with 1,188 resolved bets and $202,418 in reported profit.

$29,080 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

Top Holders

  1. 0x614d...1546 Yes, $28,815 (67% win rate)
  2. 0xdf17...97d1 No, $22,137 (56% win rate)
  3. 0x401e...6fc9 No, $14,218 (53% win rate)
  4. 0x6d9f...9790 Yes, $11,988 (61% win rate)
  5. 0xc851...cd2a No, $10,381 (52% win rate)
  6. 0xeb22...808a No, $10,312 (34% win rate)
  7. 0x30c1...9f91 Yes, $7,692 (48% win rate)
  8. 0xc722...1334 No, $7,692 (34% win rate)
  9. 0xe234...304a Yes, $7,000 (66% win rate)
  10. 0xc3db...0f98 No, $6,499 (45% win rate)

Related Theses

Ceasefire holds through August

Covers 11 related markets

Iran deal before June

Covers 4 related markets

Israel-Iran ceasefire holds through year-end

Covers 7 related markets

Hormuz lift before June

Covers 5 related markets

Iran deal after April 22

Covers 9 related markets

Iran keeps airspace open

Covers 7 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Israel remains in Lebanon

Covers 2 related markets

Iran uranium markets mispriced

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?

37dUS-Iran ceasefire continues through...?$52,373 tracked8 signalsIranTrumpIsraelMilitaryPoliticsGeopoliticsMiddle EastIsrael x IranMilitary ActionsMilitary Strikes
Yes
72¢
No
28¢

This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
77¢
62¢
46¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?

3h ago

$4,421 on No at 32¢

32¢28¢4¢

US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?

1d ago

$1,300 on Yes at 65¢

65¢72¢7¢

US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?

3d ago

$1,083 on Yes at 65¢

65¢72¢7¢

US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?

3d ago

$1,287 on No at 32¢

32¢28¢4¢

US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?

3d ago

$9,294 on No at 31¢

31¢28¢3¢

US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?

4d ago

$1,231 on No at 31¢

31¢28¢3¢

US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?

4d ago

$4,676 on Yes at 58¢

58¢72¢14¢

US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?

4d ago

$29,080 on Yes at 58¢

58¢72¢14¢

Related Theses

Ceasefire holds through August
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Iran deal before June
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US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…
Israel-Iran ceasefire holds through year-end
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Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…
Hormuz lift before June
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Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…
Iran deal after April 22
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US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
Iran keeps airspace open
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Iran closes its airspace by Ju…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…
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Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…
Israel remains in Lebanon
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Israel withdraws from Lebanon …Israel withdraws from Lebanon …
Iran uranium markets mispriced
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Iran agrees to surrender enric…Iran agrees to surrender enric…Iran agrees to surrender enric…
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