Part of: US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
19 smart money signals detected, totaling $83,112.
Categories: Iran, ceasefire, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire
Notable Trades
Six-wallet Yes conviction cluster
Six wallets deployed $18.8K into Yes, including several profitable high-volume bettors, while the market rose 8% in one day.
- Six wallets bought Yes for $18,803, with the largest entries around 76–77¢.
- Several participants have strong records, including a 91% winner and a bettor up $533,905 lifetime.
- The market has risen 8% in one day, corroborating the concentrated buying; representative entry is 77¢.
$18,803 on Yes
Sharp bettor trimming No position
A proven 85% win-rate trader is trimming a large No position while active across three related markets, though the sale appears more like profit-taking than a fresh Yes bet.
- This bettor has won 85% of 46 resolved trades and is up $142,625.
- The wallet traded across three markets in this event, with $68,568 of combined activity.
- The $4,038 sale trims a No position bought at 34¢, so it signals reduced No conviction but not necessarily a new Yes bet.
$4,038 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%
Proven serial bettor buys No
A proven high-volume bettor with a 75% win rate and reported 16-point edge is taking a fresh position on No.
- This bettor has won 260 of 345 resolved trades, with $693,910 in reported profit.
- The wallet has traded across 79 events and 215 markets, indicating substantial market experience rather than a one-off bet.
- A $1,583 buy of No at 53¢ implies the trader sees the ceasefire condition as more likely than the current 52% market price.
$1,583 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Six-wallet funded event cluster
A six-wallet funded cluster and sharp serial trader moved $5.3K across the event, but the mixed trades appear partly to be position management rather than a clean directional bet.
- Six linked wallets deployed $5,310 around the same event, a meaningful coordinated-flow signal.
- This serial cross-market trader has won 68% of 106 resolved bets and is up nearly $80,000 lifetime.
- The trades are mixed and include closed positions, so the signal is stronger for monitoring than for blindly copying direction.
$5,310 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
Funded six-wallet No cluster
A six-wallet funded cluster and serial cross-market trader are taking fresh No exposure in a relatively thin market, though the trader's track record is not clearly above-market.
- Six linked wallets share a funder and have added $2,233 of coordinated exposure.
- The wallet has traded across 35 events with a 68% win rate and more than $1.1M in cumulative volume.
- A fresh $1,174 BUY No at 36¢ arrived as Yes moved up 10 percentage points, implying conviction that the rally is overstated.
$2,233 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
93% win-rate serial trader
A highly proven bettor with a 93% win rate and substantial edge made a fresh $5,000 Yes position despite the market now trading below their entry.
- This bettor has won 252 of 270 resolved trades (93%) and is up $964,604 lifetime.
- They paid 51¢ for Yes in a market now at 48¢, signaling conviction despite the recent price decline.
- The wallet has traded across 326 events and 418 markets, making this part of a substantial, repeatable record.
$6,076 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
Six-wallet cluster adding to Yes
A six-wallet funded cluster is reinforcing a Yes position in a geopolitical ceasefire market, though the trader's ordinary track record and existing exposure temper the signal.
- Six wallets sharing a funder are tied to this directional positioning, with about $3,023 deployed in the alert.
- This wallet is adding to an existing $5,442 Yes position at 56¢, signaling continued conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
- The trader has won 68% of 77 resolved bets, but its 92¢ average winning entry makes that record supportive rather than exceptional.
$1,001 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Serial cross-market No buyer
Experienced high-volume cross-market trader is adding to an existing No position on a geopolitics market, but the edge signal is moderate rather than exceptional.
- This bettor has traded across 85 markets and is up about $253K lifetime.
- They are adding to an existing No position, bringing about $9.9K invested at a 46¢ average entry.
- The latest buy was over half of recent detected volume, showing conviction in a relatively quiet market.
$1,110 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
93% win-rate serial trader
A highly proven bettor with a 93% win rate and substantial edge made a fresh $5,000 Yes position despite the market now trading below their entry.
- This bettor has won 252 of 270 resolved trades (93%) and is up $964,604 lifetime.
- They paid 51¢ for Yes in a market now at 48¢, signaling conviction despite the recent price decline.
- The wallet has traded across 326 events and 418 markets, making this part of a substantial, repeatable record.
$5,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
Serial sharp bettor adding to No
A proven 84% winner is adding to an existing No position while exiting a profitable Yes position, providing a meaningful directional signal despite the sell being routine profit-taking.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades, with $111,612 in realized profit and a 21-point edge over implied odds.
- They bought another $1,372 of No at 49¢ while already holding $4,300, signaling continued conviction in No.
- The $3,900 Yes sale was bought at 15¢ and is mostly profit-taking, not a fresh contrarian signal; the trader also spans 28 events and 41 markets.
$5,272 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%
Top Holders
- 0x9592...a7b8 — Outcome 19481059, $110,000 (76% win rate)
- 0x778b...4e2d — Outcome 19481059, $66,694 (44% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 19481059, $49,042 (70% win rate)
- 0x9d84...1344 — Outcome 19481059, $28,218 (43% win rate)
- 0xdd10...416f — Outcome 19481059, $16,820 (71% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 19481059, $13,325 (73% win rate)
- 0x8c66...44f3 — Outcome 19481059, $11,365 (83% win rate)
- 0x9b39...25af — Outcome 19481059, $9,329
- 0xe9c2...a274 — Outcome 19481059, $8,297
- 0xa9a6...0009 — Outcome 19481059, $8,000 (88% win rate)
Related Theses
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Covers 5 related markets
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Covers 12 related markets
Iran deal by mid-June
Covers 5 related markets
Iran deal in early June
Covers 9 related markets
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Covers 8 related markets
Iran deal by mid-June
Covers 13 related markets
Hormuz blockade persists
Covers 9 related markets
Calendar arbitrage on talks
Covers 16 related markets