Part of: US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

19 smart money signals detected, totaling $83,112.

Categories: Iran, ceasefire, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire

Notable Trades

Six-wallet Yes conviction cluster

Six wallets deployed $18.8K into Yes, including several profitable high-volume bettors, while the market rose 8% in one day.

  • Six wallets bought Yes for $18,803, with the largest entries around 76–77¢.
  • Several participants have strong records, including a 91% winner and a bettor up $533,905 lifetime.
  • The market has risen 8% in one day, corroborating the concentrated buying; representative entry is 77¢.

$18,803 on Yes

Sharp bettor trimming No position

A proven 85% win-rate trader is trimming a large No position while active across three related markets, though the sale appears more like profit-taking than a fresh Yes bet.

  • This bettor has won 85% of 46 resolved trades and is up $142,625.
  • The wallet traded across three markets in this event, with $68,568 of combined activity.
  • The $4,038 sale trims a No position bought at 34¢, so it signals reduced No conviction but not necessarily a new Yes bet.

$4,038 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%

Proven serial bettor buys No

A proven high-volume bettor with a 75% win rate and reported 16-point edge is taking a fresh position on No.

  • This bettor has won 260 of 345 resolved trades, with $693,910 in reported profit.
  • The wallet has traded across 79 events and 215 markets, indicating substantial market experience rather than a one-off bet.
  • A $1,583 buy of No at 53¢ implies the trader sees the ceasefire condition as more likely than the current 52% market price.

$1,583 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Six-wallet funded event cluster

A six-wallet funded cluster and sharp serial trader moved $5.3K across the event, but the mixed trades appear partly to be position management rather than a clean directional bet.

  • Six linked wallets deployed $5,310 around the same event, a meaningful coordinated-flow signal.
  • This serial cross-market trader has won 68% of 106 resolved bets and is up nearly $80,000 lifetime.
  • The trades are mixed and include closed positions, so the signal is stronger for monitoring than for blindly copying direction.

$5,310 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Funded six-wallet No cluster

A six-wallet funded cluster and serial cross-market trader are taking fresh No exposure in a relatively thin market, though the trader's track record is not clearly above-market.

  • Six linked wallets share a funder and have added $2,233 of coordinated exposure.
  • The wallet has traded across 35 events with a 68% win rate and more than $1.1M in cumulative volume.
  • A fresh $1,174 BUY No at 36¢ arrived as Yes moved up 10 percentage points, implying conviction that the rally is overstated.

$2,233 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

93% win-rate serial trader

A highly proven bettor with a 93% win rate and substantial edge made a fresh $5,000 Yes position despite the market now trading below their entry.

  • This bettor has won 252 of 270 resolved trades (93%) and is up $964,604 lifetime.
  • They paid 51¢ for Yes in a market now at 48¢, signaling conviction despite the recent price decline.
  • The wallet has traded across 326 events and 418 markets, making this part of a substantial, repeatable record.

$6,076 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

Six-wallet cluster adding to Yes

A six-wallet funded cluster is reinforcing a Yes position in a geopolitical ceasefire market, though the trader's ordinary track record and existing exposure temper the signal.

  • Six wallets sharing a funder are tied to this directional positioning, with about $3,023 deployed in the alert.
  • This wallet is adding to an existing $5,442 Yes position at 56¢, signaling continued conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
  • The trader has won 68% of 77 resolved bets, but its 92¢ average winning entry makes that record supportive rather than exceptional.

$1,001 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Serial cross-market No buyer

Experienced high-volume cross-market trader is adding to an existing No position on a geopolitics market, but the edge signal is moderate rather than exceptional.

  • This bettor has traded across 85 markets and is up about $253K lifetime.
  • They are adding to an existing No position, bringing about $9.9K invested at a 46¢ average entry.
  • The latest buy was over half of recent detected volume, showing conviction in a relatively quiet market.

$1,110 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

93% win-rate serial trader

A highly proven bettor with a 93% win rate and substantial edge made a fresh $5,000 Yes position despite the market now trading below their entry.

  • This bettor has won 252 of 270 resolved trades (93%) and is up $964,604 lifetime.
  • They paid 51¢ for Yes in a market now at 48¢, signaling conviction despite the recent price decline.
  • The wallet has traded across 326 events and 418 markets, making this part of a substantial, repeatable record.

$5,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

Serial sharp bettor adding to No

A proven 84% winner is adding to an existing No position while exiting a profitable Yes position, providing a meaningful directional signal despite the sell being routine profit-taking.

  • This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades, with $111,612 in realized profit and a 21-point edge over implied odds.
  • They bought another $1,372 of No at 49¢ while already holding $4,300, signaling continued conviction in No.
  • The $3,900 Yes sale was bought at 15¢ and is mostly profit-taking, not a fresh contrarian signal; the trader also spans 28 events and 41 markets.

$5,272 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9592...a7b8 Outcome 19481059, $110,000 (76% win rate)
  2. 0x778b...4e2d Outcome 19481059, $66,694 (44% win rate)
  3. 0x9648...6825 Outcome 19481059, $49,042 (70% win rate)
  4. 0x9d84...1344 Outcome 19481059, $28,218 (43% win rate)
  5. 0xdd10...416f Outcome 19481059, $16,820 (71% win rate)
  6. 0xbd04...fbb0 Outcome 19481059, $13,325 (73% win rate)
  7. 0x8c66...44f3 Outcome 19481059, $11,365 (83% win rate)
  8. 0x9b39...25af Outcome 19481059, $9,329
  9. 0xe9c2...a274 Outcome 19481059, $8,297
  10. 0xa9a6...0009 Outcome 19481059, $8,000 (88% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 11 related markets

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WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 5 related markets

Iran deal in early June

Covers 9 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

Hormuz blockade persists

Covers 9 related markets

Calendar arbitrage on talks

Covers 16 related markets

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

ResolvedUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)$83,112 tracked19 signalsIranceasefirePeace DealGeopoliticsU.S. x IranIran Ceasefire

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET). A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, the action will be judged based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
98¢
89¢
80¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

38d ago

$18,803 on Yes at 77¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

40d ago

$4,038 on Yes at 50¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

40d ago

$1,583 on No at 53¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

45d ago

$5,310 on No at 36¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

45d ago

$2,233 on No at 36¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

47d ago

$6,076 on Yes at 51¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

47d ago

$1,001 on Yes at 56¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

48d ago

$1,110 on No at 46¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

49d ago

$5,000 on Yes at 51¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

49d ago

$5,272 on No at 49¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

52d ago

$3,023 on Yes at 56¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

52d ago

$1,337 on No at 46¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

54d ago

$1,054 on No at 46¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

54d ago

$2,111 on No at 46¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

56d ago

$1,907 on No at 46¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

56d ago

$1,920 on No at 46¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

56d ago

$1,399 on No at 46¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

50d ago

$17,013 on No at 50¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

57d ago

$2,921 on No at 46¢

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