Part of: US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
11 smart money signals detected, totaling $67,514.
Categories: Iran, ceasefire, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire
Notable Trades
28-wallet cluster betting against Yes
A 28-wallet, partially linked cluster has concentrated No exposure despite Yes rising to 80%, creating a strong contrarian flow signal, though the featured wallet is actively managing a mixed position.
- 28 wallets placed $167,915 in the same No direction, including two linked wallets.
- The featured trader sold roughly $16,500 of Yes while making only about $4,500 in Yes purchases, implying a net No tilt.
- The market has risen 13 percentage points in a week to 80% Yes, so this is a sizable contrarian position rather than routine momentum chasing.
$21,076 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
Six-wallet cluster backs ceasefire
A six-wallet funded cluster and repeated cross-market positioning provide a meaningful directional signal toward Yes despite the individual trade being modest.
- Six linked wallets share a funder and have returned to this event, with $50,541 traded across four related markets.
- The trader has a 65% win rate across 123 resolved bets and is making a fresh directional move rather than simply holding a large position.
- Selling No at 62¢ is equivalent to buying Yes around 38¢, implying the market may be underpricing an effective ceasefire.
$2,010 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Six-wallet cluster backs ceasefire
A six-wallet funded cluster and repeated cross-market positioning provide a meaningful directional signal toward Yes despite the individual trade being modest.
- Six linked wallets share a funder and have returned to this event, with $50,541 traded across four related markets.
- The trader has a 65% win rate across 123 resolved bets and is making a fresh directional move rather than simply holding a large position.
- Selling No at 62¢ is equivalent to buying Yes around 38¢, implying the market may be underpricing an effective ceasefire.
$1,450 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Six-wallet cluster backs ceasefire
A six-wallet funded cluster and repeated cross-market positioning provide a meaningful directional signal toward Yes despite the individual trade being modest.
- Six linked wallets share a funder and have returned to this event, with $50,541 traded across four related markets.
- The trader has a 65% win rate across 123 resolved bets and is making a fresh directional move rather than simply holding a large position.
- Selling No at 62¢ is equivalent to buying Yes around 38¢, implying the market may be underpricing an effective ceasefire.
$2,508 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Six-wallet cluster backs ceasefire
A six-wallet funded cluster and repeated cross-market positioning provide a meaningful directional signal toward Yes despite the individual trade being modest.
- Six linked wallets share a funder and have returned to this event, with $50,541 traded across four related markets.
- The trader has a 65% win rate across 123 resolved bets and is making a fresh directional move rather than simply holding a large position.
- Selling No at 62¢ is equivalent to buying Yes around 38¢, implying the market may be underpricing an effective ceasefire.
$1,798 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Six-wallet cluster backs ceasefire
A six-wallet funded cluster and repeated cross-market positioning provide a meaningful directional signal toward Yes despite the individual trade being modest.
- Six linked wallets share a funder and have returned to this event, with $50,541 traded across four related markets.
- The trader has a 65% win rate across 123 resolved bets and is making a fresh directional move rather than simply holding a large position.
- Selling No at 62¢ is equivalent to buying Yes around 38¢, implying the market may be underpricing an effective ceasefire.
$1,824 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Four-wallet ceasefire conviction cluster
Four wallets deployed $6,364 toward Yes, including highly profitable traders and a serial cross-market bettor, while Yes has already risen 21% in a day.
- Four wallets aligned on Yes with $6,364 of combined exposure, including a bettor with an 82% win rate across 1,448 resolved trades.
- A serial cross-market trader with a 76% win rate has also positioned in this event, adding broader directional support.
- Yes has risen 21% over the past day, and the trades entered around 55¢–59¢ rather than chasing an illiquid market.
$6,364 on Yes
Six-wallet cluster backs ceasefire
A six-wallet funded cluster and repeated cross-market positioning provide a meaningful directional signal toward Yes despite the individual trade being modest.
- Six linked wallets share a funder and have returned to this event, with $50,541 traded across four related markets.
- The trader has a 65% win rate across 123 resolved bets and is making a fresh directional move rather than simply holding a large position.
- Selling No at 62¢ is equivalent to buying Yes around 38¢, implying the market may be underpricing an effective ceasefire.
$1,655 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
82% winner buys No
A highly experienced bettor with an 82% win rate and $758,116 in lifetime profit is taking a fresh $2,693 position on No.
- This bettor wins 82% of 1,442 resolved positions and is up $758,116 lifetime.
- They are making a fresh $2,693 bet on No at 63¢, despite the market’s recent 9.5-point drop in Yes odds.
- The wallet has traded across 47 events and 55 markets, showing a sustained and highly active record.
$2,693 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Funded cluster betting against Yes
A seven-wallet, six-wallet-funder cluster committed $17.8K to No, including two strongly profitable bettors, although the market has since moved sharply against the position.
- Seven wallets deployed $17,778 toward No, with six sharing a common funder.
- Two participants stand out with 73% and 74% win rates across 172 and 130 resolved bets.
- The market moved from roughly 67% Yes to 80% Yes after the trades, making this a high-conviction but currently contrarian signal.
$17,778 on No
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 74471063, $71,644 (70% win rate)
- 0x9592...a7b8 — Outcome 74471063, $70,990 (76% win rate)
- 0x47ae...ee94 — Outcome 74471063, $58,669 (75% win rate)
- 0x778b...4e2d — Outcome 74471063, $36,468 (44% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 74471063, $16,100 (76% win rate)
- 0xdd10...416f — Outcome 74471063, $10,693 (71% win rate)
- 0x3989...27b1 — Outcome 74471063, $7,000 (47% win rate)
- 0x79d9...baec — Outcome 74471063, $4,000 (91% win rate)
- 0x6deb...eb68 — Outcome 74471063, $3,880 (93% win rate)
- 0xd5db...3c45 — Outcome 74471063, $3,800 (50% win rate)
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