Part of: US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET). A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, the action will be judged based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and credible reporting.

11 smart money signals detected, totaling $67,514.

Categories: Iran, ceasefire, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire

Notable Trades

28-wallet cluster betting against Yes

A 28-wallet, partially linked cluster has concentrated No exposure despite Yes rising to 80%, creating a strong contrarian flow signal, though the featured wallet is actively managing a mixed position.

  • 28 wallets placed $167,915 in the same No direction, including two linked wallets.
  • The featured trader sold roughly $16,500 of Yes while making only about $4,500 in Yes purchases, implying a net No tilt.
  • The market has risen 13 percentage points in a week to 80% Yes, so this is a sizable contrarian position rather than routine momentum chasing.

$21,076 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Six-wallet cluster backs ceasefire

A six-wallet funded cluster and repeated cross-market positioning provide a meaningful directional signal toward Yes despite the individual trade being modest.

  • Six linked wallets share a funder and have returned to this event, with $50,541 traded across four related markets.
  • The trader has a 65% win rate across 123 resolved bets and is making a fresh directional move rather than simply holding a large position.
  • Selling No at 62¢ is equivalent to buying Yes around 38¢, implying the market may be underpricing an effective ceasefire.

$2,010 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Six-wallet cluster backs ceasefire

A six-wallet funded cluster and repeated cross-market positioning provide a meaningful directional signal toward Yes despite the individual trade being modest.

  • Six linked wallets share a funder and have returned to this event, with $50,541 traded across four related markets.
  • The trader has a 65% win rate across 123 resolved bets and is making a fresh directional move rather than simply holding a large position.
  • Selling No at 62¢ is equivalent to buying Yes around 38¢, implying the market may be underpricing an effective ceasefire.

$1,450 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Six-wallet cluster backs ceasefire

A six-wallet funded cluster and repeated cross-market positioning provide a meaningful directional signal toward Yes despite the individual trade being modest.

  • Six linked wallets share a funder and have returned to this event, with $50,541 traded across four related markets.
  • The trader has a 65% win rate across 123 resolved bets and is making a fresh directional move rather than simply holding a large position.
  • Selling No at 62¢ is equivalent to buying Yes around 38¢, implying the market may be underpricing an effective ceasefire.

$2,508 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Six-wallet cluster backs ceasefire

A six-wallet funded cluster and repeated cross-market positioning provide a meaningful directional signal toward Yes despite the individual trade being modest.

  • Six linked wallets share a funder and have returned to this event, with $50,541 traded across four related markets.
  • The trader has a 65% win rate across 123 resolved bets and is making a fresh directional move rather than simply holding a large position.
  • Selling No at 62¢ is equivalent to buying Yes around 38¢, implying the market may be underpricing an effective ceasefire.

$1,798 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Six-wallet cluster backs ceasefire

A six-wallet funded cluster and repeated cross-market positioning provide a meaningful directional signal toward Yes despite the individual trade being modest.

  • Six linked wallets share a funder and have returned to this event, with $50,541 traded across four related markets.
  • The trader has a 65% win rate across 123 resolved bets and is making a fresh directional move rather than simply holding a large position.
  • Selling No at 62¢ is equivalent to buying Yes around 38¢, implying the market may be underpricing an effective ceasefire.

$1,824 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Four-wallet ceasefire conviction cluster

Four wallets deployed $6,364 toward Yes, including highly profitable traders and a serial cross-market bettor, while Yes has already risen 21% in a day.

  • Four wallets aligned on Yes with $6,364 of combined exposure, including a bettor with an 82% win rate across 1,448 resolved trades.
  • A serial cross-market trader with a 76% win rate has also positioned in this event, adding broader directional support.
  • Yes has risen 21% over the past day, and the trades entered around 55¢–59¢ rather than chasing an illiquid market.

$6,364 on Yes

Six-wallet cluster backs ceasefire

A six-wallet funded cluster and repeated cross-market positioning provide a meaningful directional signal toward Yes despite the individual trade being modest.

  • Six linked wallets share a funder and have returned to this event, with $50,541 traded across four related markets.
  • The trader has a 65% win rate across 123 resolved bets and is making a fresh directional move rather than simply holding a large position.
  • Selling No at 62¢ is equivalent to buying Yes around 38¢, implying the market may be underpricing an effective ceasefire.

$1,655 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

82% winner buys No

A highly experienced bettor with an 82% win rate and $758,116 in lifetime profit is taking a fresh $2,693 position on No.

  • This bettor wins 82% of 1,442 resolved positions and is up $758,116 lifetime.
  • They are making a fresh $2,693 bet on No at 63¢, despite the market’s recent 9.5-point drop in Yes odds.
  • The wallet has traded across 47 events and 55 markets, showing a sustained and highly active record.

$2,693 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Funded cluster betting against Yes

A seven-wallet, six-wallet-funder cluster committed $17.8K to No, including two strongly profitable bettors, although the market has since moved sharply against the position.

  • Seven wallets deployed $17,778 toward No, with six sharing a common funder.
  • Two participants stand out with 73% and 74% win rates across 172 and 130 resolved bets.
  • The market moved from roughly 67% Yes to 80% Yes after the trades, making this a high-conviction but currently contrarian signal.

$17,778 on No

Related Theses

Iran blockade likely persists through 2026

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Neither party controls the Senate

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Flávio Bolsonaro wins, Lula loses

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Iran ceasefire holds through December

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Someone else wins Peru presidency

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Ceasefire holds through August

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Iran announcement timing markets are mispriced

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Fed will hike rates 25 bps

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Ceasefire by July, briefly lapses, returns

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Iran ceasefire breaks, resumes, then ends

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US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)$67,514 tracked11 signalsIranceasefirePeace DealGeopoliticsU.S. x IranIran Ceasefire
Yes
100¢
No
0¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET). A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, the action will be judged based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and credible reporting.

Notable Trades

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?

2026-08-04 17:43 UTC

$21,076 on No at 50¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?

2026-08-04 10:47 UTC

$2,010 on Yes at 38¢

38¢→100¢↑62¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?

2026-08-04 01:15 UTC

$1,450 on Yes at 38¢

38¢→100¢↑62¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?

2026-08-03 23:49 UTC

$2,508 on Yes at 38¢

38¢→100¢↑62¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?

2026-08-03 23:04 UTC

$1,798 on Yes at 38¢

38¢→100¢↑62¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?

2026-08-02 22:03 UTC

$1,824 on Yes at 38¢

38¢→100¢↑62¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?

2026-08-02 02:30 UTC

$6,364 on Yes at 58¢

58¢→100¢↑42¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?

2026-08-01 02:22 UTC

$1,655 on Yes at 38¢

38¢→100¢↑62¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?

2026-07-31 16:36 UTC

$2,693 on No at 63¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?

2026-08-04 17:43 UTC

$17,778 on No at 33¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?

2026-07-16 20:55 UTC

$8,358 on No at 56¢

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