US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
This Polymarket tracks whether the United States and Iran will agree to a permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026. It resolves to Yes only if there is an explicit agreement stating that military hostilities have ended or will permanently cease; otherwise it resolves to No at the deadline. Current market interest includes mixed smart money activity, with recent alerts showing both Yes buying and notable No positioning.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
33 smart money signals detected, totaling $136,603.
Categories: Iran, Trump, ceasefire, Iran Ceasefire, Agreement, 10-point, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Politics
Notable Trades
86% winner re-entering Yes
This is worth surfacing because a very high-volume bettor with an 86% win rate reopened a position on the same side after previously closing out, signaling renewed conviction in a geopolitical market.
- This bettor has won 86% of 1,017 resolved markets and has traded over $10.2M
- They reopened a Yes position after previously closing one, which points to fresh conviction rather than routine profit-taking
- The market has already moved up 32.5 points over the past week, and they still bought at 63¢
$1,260 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
New whale event thesis
A 3-day-old wallet has already deployed over $40k across repeat bets in this event cluster, and this trade extends a broader thesis rather than looking like a one-off punt.
- This 3-day-old wallet has already triggered 19 large-bet alerts with about $40.6k flagged total
- It is betting across 4 related Iran event markets, suggesting a coordinated thesis rather than a single random trade
- This trade effectively buys No around 36¢, a low-price entry on a market that has surged 27 points in a week
$2,213 on No
88% win-rate event trader
A highly profitable 88% win-rate trader is taking a cross-market event view here, and their sell of Yes at 61¢ translates into a buyable No position at 39¢.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $396k across more than $6.0M invested
- They trade linked markets across events and put $9.3k into 3 markets tied to this same situation
- Selling Yes at 61¢ is effectively a buy of No at 39¢, a clear bet that current peace-deal odds are too high
$3,050 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
88% winner fading rally
A highly profitable 88% win-rate trader with extensive cross-market event positioning sold Yes at 65¢, which converts to buying No at 35¢ on a liquid market after a sharp recent run-up.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $395k lifetime
- They trade across events with scale: 50 markets and about $637k tracked, suggesting a repeatable process
- They sold Yes at 65¢ after this market jumped 31 points in a week, which translates to buying No at 35¢
$1,956 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
88% win-rate macro bettor
A highly profitable 88% win-rate trader with over $1.1M in realized P&L is taking a fresh contrarian No position in this fast-rising geopolitics market after building a broader event thesis across 4 related markets.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $1.13M lifetime.
- They have traded 4 markets tied to this same event with nearly $48.7k deployed, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought No at 25¢ even after this market jumped 29 points in a day, a contrarian entry against recent momentum.
$3,693 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
88% win-rate event trader
A highly profitable 88% win-rate trader is expressing a cross-market event thesis here by selling Yes, which converts to a copyable BUY No at 24¢.
- This bettor wins 88% of their resolved trades and is up about $395k lifetime
- They trade event themes across many related markets: 50 markets over 26 events with the same strong record
- This sale of Yes at 76¢ translates to buying No at 24¢, a relatively cheap way to follow their view
$4,560 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
88% winner fading peace deal
A highly profitable 88% win-rate trader is expressing a cross-market thesis here by selling Yes at 72¢, which converts to a buyable No view at 28¢.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $395k lifetime.
- They trade across related events and markets with a strong record, suggesting a broader geopolitical thesis rather than a random bet.
- Selling Yes at 72¢ is equivalent to buying No at 28¢, a cheap entry if this outcome stays unlikely.
$1,440 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
New whale cross-market thesis
A very new wallet has already deployed over $100k across repeated event-related bets and is adding a $5.1k Yes position into strong momentum on a major geopolitical market.
- This 13-day-old wallet has already made 19 large flagged bets totaling about $101k
- It is betting across 3 related markets in the same event, suggesting a broader geopolitical thesis rather than a one-off punt
- The trader bought Yes at 70¢ while this market is up 37 points in a week, showing conviction into strong momentum
$5,085 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 50%
New wallet buying geopolitics surge
A very new wallet is repeatedly putting meaningful size into a fast-moving geopolitics market by effectively buying Yes around 57-61¢ during a major volume surge, which is notable despite limited track record.
- This 4-day-old wallet has already made 4 positions and put over $8k into flagged bets
- They sold No at 39-43¢, which is the same as buying Yes around 57-61¢
- The market is in a strong move with $664k 24h volume and the Yes price up 32 points over the past week
$6,232 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 33%
Profitable macro bettor buying spike
A profitable, high-volume wallet with 1,060 resolved bets bought $15.4k of Yes into a major geopolitics market during a large volume surge, suggesting conviction behind a broader event thesis.
- This bettor has 1,060 resolved bets and is up $281.8k overall, so this is not a random one-off trade
- They bought $15.4k of Yes at 55¢ while market volume is running 74x above normal, showing strong interest around this event
- The wallet has been trading 3 related markets in the same event, which points to a broader geopolitical thesis rather than a single punt
$15,408 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 57%
Top Holders
- 0x5d0f...f0ad — No, $83,840
- 0x68c2...1711 — Yes, $75,000 (57% win rate)
- 0x5739...5f1a — No, $56,250
- 0x9b6f...0e5f — Yes, $56,211 (43% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $52,549 (70% win rate)
- 0x162f...798d — Yes, $38,019 (71% win rate)
- 0x51ff...4818 — No, $37,660
- 0xf155...76bd — No, $33,603 (58% win rate)
- 0xa9e6...1dc2 — Yes, $32,734 (83% win rate)
- 0xf20a...642f — No, $29,780
