Part of: Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
14 smart money signals detected, totaling $38,288.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Venezuela, Trump, Cuba
Notable Trades
Profitable serial cross-market sharp
Profitable 75% lifetime bettor is effectively buying Yes at 12¢ on a Cuba leadership-change market despite recent price weakness.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $185K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.69M deployed across 260 markets.
- Selling No at 88¢ is effectively buying Yes at 12¢, a contrarian position after Yes fell 7.5% this week.
$1,577 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
Profitable 77% winner
Sharp wallet override: a profitable 77% winner put $3.3k on No in a quiet political market, exceeding recent daily volume.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up about $9.9k lifetime.
- The $3.3k No buy was larger than the market’s recent 24h volume, showing conviction in a quiet market.
- Entry at 85¢ suggests they are backing the status quo despite low recent activity.
$3,289 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Surface because this is a profitable, high-volume serial cross-market trader taking a fresh Yes position on a political leadership market.
- This bettor has 534 resolved bets, wins 65%, and is up $51k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 38 events with $382k tracked in this pattern.
- Selling No at 77¢ is equivalent to buying Yes around 23¢.
$3,485 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 59%
Proven political cross-market bettor
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 75% win rate and +$161k lifetime P&L bought No on Díaz-Canel leaving office by June 30.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades across 1,040 markets and is up $161k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 164 events with $1.66M total deployed.
- Buying No at 81¢ suggests confidence that Díaz-Canel remains Cuba’s leader through June 30.
$1,400 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
84% win-rate political trader
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 84% win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No on Díaz-Canel leaving office by June 30.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved bets and is up about $37.9k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 76 events with over $827k in detected activity.
- Buying No at 82¢ suggests confidence that Díaz-Canel remains Cuba’s president through June 30.
$1,517 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
83% winner re-enters No
Sharp-wallet override: an 83% lifetime winner with positive P&L is re-entering No on a political market despite only a weak low-activity signal.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $14.6k lifetime.
- They bought $2,000 of No at 79¢ after previously closing a No position on this market.
- The market is fairly quiet, so a fresh $2,000 re-entry is a notable conviction signal.
$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%
94% winner buys Yes
Despite the weak low-activity signal, this is a proven sharp wallet with a 94% resolved win rate and strong lifetime profit selling No, equivalent to buying Yes at 18¢.
- This bettor wins 94% of resolved trades and is up about $75.8K lifetime.
- Selling No at 82¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 18¢, matching the current ask.
- The wallet previously held No here, so this looks like a shift away from the safer side rather than just a first-time bet.
$1,519 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%
94% cross-market specialist
Surface due to an exceptional 94% win-rate serial cross-market trader taking a fresh No position, though lifetime P&L is negative and most wins are at very high prices.
- This bettor has won 94% of 694 resolved trades across many markets.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with 32 events and $125K flagged in this pattern.
- They bought No at 83¢, aligning with the market’s current 82% view that Díaz-Canel stays through June 30.
$1,063 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
10-0 bettor buying Yes
Sharp wallet override: a 10-0 profitable bettor is effectively buying Yes at 16¢ on a quiet Cuba leadership market despite only a weak low-activity signal.
- This bettor has won 100% of their 10 resolved bets and is up $6.2K lifetime.
- The trade is effectively a Yes buy at 16¢, suggesting they see meaningful upside from the current low odds.
- The $2.6K position is nearly 181% of the market’s 24h volume, a notable bet in a quiet market.
$2,601 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Serial cross-market bettor
A serial cross-market trader with positive P&L is making a sizable $9.4k effective BUY Yes at 15¢ on a political leadership market.
- This bettor has traded 71 markets across 38 events and is up about $69.6k lifetime.
- The $9.4k position is effectively a BUY Yes at 15¢, a meaningful long-shot bet against the current 85% No odds.
- This trade is large relative to the market’s $13.2k 24h volume, suggesting notable conviction.
$9,438 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%
Top Holders
- 0x53e5...6177 — Outcome 39613364, $37,913 (44% win rate)
- 0x9c8e...9883 — Outcome 39613364, $28,274 (100% win rate)
- 0x3818...afa9 — Outcome 39613364, $17,227
- 0xb31f...580b — Outcome 39613364, $13,991
- 0x6df6...8458 — Outcome 58505293, $13,111 (68% win rate)
- 0x93fb...3e4a — Outcome 39613364, $10,333 (38% win rate)
- 0x6b3f...43dc — Outcome 39613364, $7,547
- 0x2881...2091 — Outcome 39613364, $6,662 (43% win rate)
- 0x74db...4ca5 — Outcome 39613364, $6,000
- 0x7678...e5f0 — Outcome 58505293, $5,194
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