Part of: US announces blockade on Iran by...?

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

16 smart money signals detected, totaling $58,043.

Categories: Iran, Blockade, U.S. x Iran, Trump, shipping, Politics, Peace Deal, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Profitable serial event trader

Proven profitable wallet with a large resolved-bet sample is buying No on a geopolitics market, though size is modest relative to market liquidity.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved bets and is up about $434k lifetime.
  • They have traded 691 markets across 544 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
  • Buying No at 69¢ follows a recent pullback in Yes after a large weekly move.

$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

17-wallet sharp cluster adding YES

A proven profitable wallet within a 17-wallet funded cluster is adding to a sizable Yes position on a geopolitical market.

  • This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up about $106K lifetime.
  • 17 wallets funded by the same source have put about $47K behind this direction.
  • They are adding to an existing Yes position with $11K already invested at the same 32¢ entry.

$1,844 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%

Proven sharp fading rally

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win rate is fading the recent Yes rally by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 77¢.

  • This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $852K lifetime.
  • They are a seasoned cross-market trader across 70 events with $3.8M in tracked volume.
  • They sold Yes after a sharp price rise, which is equivalent to buying No at 77¢.

$3,334 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Proven sharp fading rally

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win rate is fading the recent Yes rally by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 77¢.

  • This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $852K lifetime.
  • They are a seasoned cross-market trader across 70 events with $3.8M in tracked volume.
  • They sold Yes after a sharp price rise, which is equivalent to buying No at 77¢.

$1,068 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Elite 82% bettor adding

Proven high-edge wallet with an 82% long-term win rate is adding to a sizable Yes position amid strong recent price momentum.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $729k lifetime.
  • They are adding to an existing Yes position worth about $18.5k, showing continued conviction.
  • Yes has jumped 21 points in the past day, and this entry at 35¢ still implies a nearly 3x payout if correct.

$3,837 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Proven sharp fading rally

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win rate is fading the recent Yes rally by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 77¢.

  • This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $852K lifetime.
  • They are a seasoned cross-market trader across 70 events with $3.8M in tracked volume.
  • They sold Yes after a sharp price rise, which is equivalent to buying No at 77¢.

$1,485 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Proven sharp fading rally

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win rate is fading the recent Yes rally by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 77¢.

  • This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $852K lifetime.
  • They are a seasoned cross-market trader across 70 events with $3.8M in tracked volume.
  • They sold Yes after a sharp price rise, which is equivalent to buying No at 77¢.

$2,976 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Proven sharp fading rally

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win rate is fading the recent Yes rally by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 77¢.

  • This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $852K lifetime.
  • They are a seasoned cross-market trader across 70 events with $3.8M in tracked volume.
  • They sold Yes after a sharp price rise, which is equivalent to buying No at 77¢.

$3,150 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Proven sharp fading rally

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win rate is fading the recent Yes rally by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 77¢.

  • This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $852K lifetime.
  • They are a seasoned cross-market trader across 70 events with $3.8M in tracked volume.
  • They sold Yes after a sharp price rise, which is equivalent to buying No at 77¢.

$2,232 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

7-wallet Yes breakout

Strong coordinated Yes buying from seven wallets coincided with a 224x volume spike and a ~50-point price breakout on a geopolitically plausible market.

  • Seven wallets bought $28k of Yes in one burst, with entries as low as 32¢ before the market reached 96¢.
  • Volume spiked 224x above normal and Yes is up 63 points over the past day.
  • Several buyers were adding to existing Yes positions, and one active cross-market trader has a 94% win rate across 570 markets.

$28,357 on Yes

Top Holders

  1. 0x9868...64b0 Outcome 64713548, $12,952 (90% win rate)
  2. 0x44c1...ebc1 Outcome 64713548, $10,350 (60% win rate)
  3. 0x85a8...9281 Outcome 64713548, $9,494 (93% win rate)
  4. 0x5a21...9318 Outcome 64713548, $7,492 (61% win rate)
  5. 0x121d...832a Outcome 64713548, $5,901 (75% win rate)
  6. 0x061a...142b Outcome 64713548, $5,000
  7. 0x5666...c630 Outcome 64713548, $5,000 (60% win rate)
  8. 0xf42f...a6a7 Outcome 64713548, $5,000 (74% win rate)
  9. 0xe26e...036b Outcome 64713548, $4,958 (90% win rate)
  10. 0xee67...67a6 Outcome 64713548, $4,800

Related Theses

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Iranian blockade persists through August

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WTI stays between $90 and $105

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Iran peace deal won’t happen

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Iran closes airspace mid-May

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Someone else wins Peru presidency

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Iran deal by mid-June

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World Cup favorites prevail

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Hormuz blockade persists

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Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

ResolvedUS announces blockade on Iran by...?$58,043 tracked16 signalsIranBlockadeU.S. x IranTrumpshippingPoliticsPeace DealGeopolitics

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the imposition of a naval blockade on Iran, or on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The announcement need not specify the full scope, duration, or enforcement parameters of the blockade. An announcement of a partial or targeted blockade qualifies, including one limited to specific vessel categories, port areas, or Iranian coastal zones, provided it clearly announces the interdiction of Iranian maritime traffic as an unconditional policy. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present implementation of a blockade, previously-unannounced prior implementation of a blockade, or definitive decision to implement a blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe a blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of a blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement a blockade; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional imposition rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a blockade is ever actually implemented. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

Notable Trades

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

41d ago

$2,000 on No at 69¢

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

41d ago

$1,844 on Yes at 32¢

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

42d ago

$3,334 on No at 77¢

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

42d ago

$1,068 on No at 77¢

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

42d ago

$3,837 on Yes at 35¢

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

42d ago

$1,485 on No at 77¢

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

42d ago

$2,976 on No at 77¢

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

43d ago

$3,150 on No at 77¢

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

43d ago

$2,232 on No at 77¢

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

41d ago

$28,357 on Yes at 56¢

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

43d ago

$1,350 on No at 77¢

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

43d ago

$1,805 on No at 77¢

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

46d ago

$1,100 on No at 79¢

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

46d ago

$1,006 on No at 77¢

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

46d ago

$1,200 on No at 77¢

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

56d ago

$1,300 on No at 79¢

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