Part of: US announces blockade on Iran by...?

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

This prediction market asks whether the United States will publicly and officially announce a naval blockade on Iran, ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,300 in smart money across 1 signal, with a recent proven-bettor alert buying No. The market resolves based on an official U.S. government announcement before the deadline.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the imposition of a naval blockade on Iran, or on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The announcement need not specify the full scope, duration, or enforcement parameters of the blockade. An announcement of a partial or targeted blockade qualifies, including one limited to specific vessel categories, port areas, or Iranian coastal zones, provided it clearly announces the interdiction of Iranian maritime traffic as an unconditional policy. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present implementation of a blockade, previously-unannounced prior implementation of a blockade, or definitive decision to implement a blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe a blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of a blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement a blockade; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional imposition rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a blockade is ever actually implemented. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,300.

Categories: Iran, Blockade, U.S. x Iran, Trump, shipping, Politics, Peace Deal, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Proven bettor buying NO

Sharp profitable wallet with a 76% win rate is buying No on a geopolitical market as part of cross-market positioning.

  • This bettor has won 76% of 616 resolved trades and is up $22.5K lifetime.
  • They are taking a $1.3K No position while also positioning across another related market.
  • Entry at 79¢ suggests a lower-risk thesis that no US blockade announcement happens by the deadline.

$1,300 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Top Holders

  1. 0x162f...798d No, $20,805 (69% win rate)
  2. 0xeb22...808a Yes, $15,000 (34% win rate)
  3. 0x1086...27d2 Yes, $14,000
  4. 0x93fb...3e4a Yes, $12,500 (38% win rate)
  5. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $11,809 (47% win rate)
  6. 0xfd66...fb6d Yes, $5,000 (23% win rate)
  7. 0xfb51...742d No, $5,000 (71% win rate)
  8. 0x1ee9...197f No, $4,486 (69% win rate)
  9. 0x8c66...44f3 Yes, $4,000 (83% win rate)
  10. 0x8792...4174 No, $3,160 (81% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran keeps airspace open

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Iran deal arrives in September

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No US blockade of Iran

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Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

29dUS announces blockade on Iran by...?$1,300 tracked1 signalIranBlockadeU.S. x IranTrumpshippingPoliticsPeace DealGeopolitics
Yes
14¢
No
87¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the imposition of a naval blockade on Iran, or on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The announcement need not specify the full scope, duration, or enforcement parameters of the blockade. An announcement of a partial or targeted blockade qualifies, including one limited to specific vessel categories, port areas, or Iranian coastal zones, provided it clearly announces the interdiction of Iranian maritime traffic as an unconditional policy. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present implementation of a blockade, previously-unannounced prior implementation of a blockade, or definitive decision to implement a blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe a blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of a blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement a blockade; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional imposition rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a blockade is ever actually implemented. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

Price History — “No
88¢
80¢
72¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

3d ago

$1,300 on No at 79¢

79¢87¢8¢

Related Theses