Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?

Israel closes its airspace by June 8?

12 smart money signals detected, totaling $110,878.

Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

Sharp serial bettor on No

A proven serial cross-market bettor with 73% wins and +$249k lifetime P&L put $24.2k on No, alongside major volume spikes and a fast price move toward No.

  • This bettor wins 73% of resolved trades and is up about $249k lifetime.
  • They put $24.2k on No across three buys, and the market quickly moved from their 80–90¢ entries to 97¢.
  • This wallet has traded 48 related events and is positioning across 4 markets in this event.

$24,220 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Profitable serial event trader

Strong profitable serial cross-market trader is putting $27.7K on No amid a major volume spike and event-wide positioning.

  • This bettor has won 73% of 162 resolved bets and is up about $249K lifetime.
  • They put $27.7K on No after trading across 4 related markets in the same event.
  • Volume spiked sharply on this market, suggesting broader attention around the same thesis.

$27,684 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Proven bettor flips No

A proven high-volume cross-market trader with a 75% resolved win rate flipped into an $11.4k No position amid a major volume spike and fast move toward No.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 386 resolved markets and is up $232k lifetime.
  • They put $11.4k on No after previously closing a Yes position, suggesting a clear thesis change.
  • No jumped from 90¢ to 94¢ quickly as volume spiked 27.7x above normal.

$11,365 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

Profitable serial event trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 73% resolved win rate and +$249k P&L bought No at 88¢ after previously closing a Yes position.

  • This bettor wins 73% of resolved trades and is up about $249k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 48 events and 59 markets with $538k in related positioning.
  • They closed an earlier Yes position and are now buying No at 88¢, suggesting a clear thesis change.

$3,464 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Cross-market Yes buyer

Surface as a cross-market geopolitical thesis: the wallet has $51.9K across five related markets and is effectively buying Yes after a sharp No price drop.

  • This wallet has put $51.9K across 5 related markets, suggesting a focused airspace-closure thesis.
  • The No price fell 21.5 points in 4 minutes, showing a sharp market move around this flow.
  • This trade is effectively a Yes buy at 13¢, offering high upside if closure risk rises.

$1,227 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 54%

4-wallet Yes surge

Surface: four wallets bought $7.3k of Yes during a 15x volume spike with rapid upward price impact on a geopolitically plausible information-sensitive market.

  • Four wallets bought the same side, putting $7.3k into Yes in a short burst.
  • Market activity jumped 15x above normal and Yes moved up 12.5 percentage points in 5 minutes.
  • The cluster paid around 52¢ on average, while the market is now near 45¢.

$7,345 on Yes

$300K-profit cross-market bettor

Profitable wallet with an 80-bet history is buying No while also positioning across related markets, supported by a sharp short-term price move.

  • This bettor is up about $300K lifetime across 80 resolved bets.
  • They are betting a broader thesis across 3 related markets with $11.3K total exposure.
  • Buying No at 69¢ lines up with recent fast movement toward No in this market.

$1,315 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

Six-wallet NO wave

Six wallets pushed the same No position during a large volume spike, with several experienced profitable traders contributing despite no standout sharp-wallet win-rate signal.

  • Six wallets bought the same side, totaling about $9.5k on No.
  • The move came with a 10x volume spike and pushed Yes down from around 40¢ to 31¢.
  • Several bettors have deep histories, including one up $45.6k across 627 resolved trades.

$9,466 on No

Profitable serial trader joins Yes flow

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader joined a 7-wallet Yes-side flow during a major volume spike on a geopolitics market, though the market has since moved against the entry.

  • This bettor has won 405 resolved markets and is up about $219k lifetime.
  • Seven wallets bought the same Yes side for about $15k during the scan window.
  • Volume spiked 32x, suggesting a sudden wave of attention on this airspace-closure market.

$1,669 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 61%

Sharp 9-wallet Yes cluster

High-conviction one-sided Yes cluster with 9 wallets, a 29.5x volume spike, and participation from a highly profitable bettor with an 82% record.

  • Nine wallets put $19.2K on Yes in a thin market with only $55.9K total volume.
  • One participant wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $570K lifetime.
  • The market saw a 29.5x volume spike, suggesting sudden coordinated conviction.

$19,169 on Yes

Top Holders

  1. 0x8d4b...07cb Outcome 46725159, $100,880 (44% win rate)
  2. 0x9592...a7b8 Outcome 46725159, $9,250 (93% win rate)
  3. 0x7b66...3a93 Outcome 46725159, $7,000
  4. 0xff91...a1ed Outcome 46725159, $6,877 (71% win rate)
  5. 0xd109...6fa0 Outcome 46725159, $6,105 (78% win rate)
  6. 0x1aea...10c9 Outcome 46725159, $5,597
  7. 0x13b3...7552 Outcome 46725159, $4,293 (42% win rate)
  8. 0x7c7a...0d8b Outcome 46725159, $3,675 (14% win rate)
  9. 0xbd04...fbb0 Outcome 46725159, $3,021 (70% win rate)
  10. 0xfc2f...10c7 Outcome 46725159, $2,973 (79% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran deal likely soon

Covers 10 related markets

US-Iran deal timing arbitrage

Covers 11 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Trump lifts Hormuz blockade

Covers 5 related markets

No Iran deal by June

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 6 related markets

Covers 7 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Iran closes airspace late June

Covers 7 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 8 related markets

Israel closes its airspace by June 8?

ResolvedIsrael closes its airspace by...?$110,878 tracked12 signalsIranIsraelPoliticsGeopoliticsIsrael x Iran

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Notable Trades

Israel closes its airspace by June 8?

41d ago

$24,220 on No at 83¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 8?

41d ago

$27,684 on No at 84¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 8?

41d ago

$11,365 on No at 90¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 8?

41d ago

$3,464 on No at 88¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 8?

41d ago

$1,227 on Yes at 13¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 8?

41d ago

$7,345 on Yes at 52¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 8?

41d ago

$1,315 on No at 69¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 8?

41d ago

$9,466 on No at 64¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 8?

41d ago

$1,669 on Yes at 67¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 8?

41d ago

$19,169 on Yes at 58¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 8?

41d ago

$1,111 on Yes at 68¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 8?

41d ago

$2,843 on Yes at 67¢

Related Theses