Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?
Israel closes its airspace by June 8?
12 smart money signals detected, totaling $110,878.
Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
Sharp serial bettor on No
A proven serial cross-market bettor with 73% wins and +$249k lifetime P&L put $24.2k on No, alongside major volume spikes and a fast price move toward No.
- This bettor wins 73% of resolved trades and is up about $249k lifetime.
- They put $24.2k on No across three buys, and the market quickly moved from their 80–90¢ entries to 97¢.
- This wallet has traded 48 related events and is positioning across 4 markets in this event.
$24,220 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Profitable serial event trader
Strong profitable serial cross-market trader is putting $27.7K on No amid a major volume spike and event-wide positioning.
- This bettor has won 73% of 162 resolved bets and is up about $249K lifetime.
- They put $27.7K on No after trading across 4 related markets in the same event.
- Volume spiked sharply on this market, suggesting broader attention around the same thesis.
$27,684 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Proven bettor flips No
A proven high-volume cross-market trader with a 75% resolved win rate flipped into an $11.4k No position amid a major volume spike and fast move toward No.
- This bettor has won 75% of 386 resolved markets and is up $232k lifetime.
- They put $11.4k on No after previously closing a Yes position, suggesting a clear thesis change.
- No jumped from 90¢ to 94¢ quickly as volume spiked 27.7x above normal.
$11,365 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 73% resolved win rate and +$249k P&L bought No at 88¢ after previously closing a Yes position.
- This bettor wins 73% of resolved trades and is up about $249k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 48 events and 59 markets with $538k in related positioning.
- They closed an earlier Yes position and are now buying No at 88¢, suggesting a clear thesis change.
$3,464 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Cross-market Yes buyer
Surface as a cross-market geopolitical thesis: the wallet has $51.9K across five related markets and is effectively buying Yes after a sharp No price drop.
- This wallet has put $51.9K across 5 related markets, suggesting a focused airspace-closure thesis.
- The No price fell 21.5 points in 4 minutes, showing a sharp market move around this flow.
- This trade is effectively a Yes buy at 13¢, offering high upside if closure risk rises.
$1,227 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 54%
4-wallet Yes surge
Surface: four wallets bought $7.3k of Yes during a 15x volume spike with rapid upward price impact on a geopolitically plausible information-sensitive market.
- Four wallets bought the same side, putting $7.3k into Yes in a short burst.
- Market activity jumped 15x above normal and Yes moved up 12.5 percentage points in 5 minutes.
- The cluster paid around 52¢ on average, while the market is now near 45¢.
$7,345 on Yes
$300K-profit cross-market bettor
Profitable wallet with an 80-bet history is buying No while also positioning across related markets, supported by a sharp short-term price move.
- This bettor is up about $300K lifetime across 80 resolved bets.
- They are betting a broader thesis across 3 related markets with $11.3K total exposure.
- Buying No at 69¢ lines up with recent fast movement toward No in this market.
$1,315 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
Six-wallet NO wave
Six wallets pushed the same No position during a large volume spike, with several experienced profitable traders contributing despite no standout sharp-wallet win-rate signal.
- Six wallets bought the same side, totaling about $9.5k on No.
- The move came with a 10x volume spike and pushed Yes down from around 40¢ to 31¢.
- Several bettors have deep histories, including one up $45.6k across 627 resolved trades.
$9,466 on No
Profitable serial trader joins Yes flow
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader joined a 7-wallet Yes-side flow during a major volume spike on a geopolitics market, though the market has since moved against the entry.
- This bettor has won 405 resolved markets and is up about $219k lifetime.
- Seven wallets bought the same Yes side for about $15k during the scan window.
- Volume spiked 32x, suggesting a sudden wave of attention on this airspace-closure market.
$1,669 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 61%
Sharp 9-wallet Yes cluster
High-conviction one-sided Yes cluster with 9 wallets, a 29.5x volume spike, and participation from a highly profitable bettor with an 82% record.
- Nine wallets put $19.2K on Yes in a thin market with only $55.9K total volume.
- One participant wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $570K lifetime.
- The market saw a 29.5x volume spike, suggesting sudden coordinated conviction.
$19,169 on Yes
Top Holders
- 0x8d4b...07cb — Outcome 46725159, $100,880 (44% win rate)
- 0x9592...a7b8 — Outcome 46725159, $9,250 (93% win rate)
- 0x7b66...3a93 — Outcome 46725159, $7,000
- 0xff91...a1ed — Outcome 46725159, $6,877 (71% win rate)
- 0xd109...6fa0 — Outcome 46725159, $6,105 (78% win rate)
- 0x1aea...10c9 — Outcome 46725159, $5,597
- 0x13b3...7552 — Outcome 46725159, $4,293 (42% win rate)
- 0x7c7a...0d8b — Outcome 46725159, $3,675 (14% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 46725159, $3,021 (70% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 46725159, $2,973 (79% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran deal likely soon
Covers 10 related markets
US-Iran deal timing arbitrage
Covers 11 related markets
Trump lifts Hormuz blockade
Covers 5 related markets
No Iran deal by June
Covers 8 related markets
Iran closes airspace late June
Covers 7 related markets
Iran deal by mid-June
Covers 8 related markets
