Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether official representatives of the United States and Iran will hold a diplomatic meeting by 11:59 PM ET on June 21, 2026. The market resolves “Yes” if authorized government representatives meet directly for negotiation or diplomacy on US-Iran relations; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $1,565 in smart money activity across 1 signal, including recent moves from profitable geopolitics traders on both Yes and No.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
22 smart money signals detected, totaling $55,030.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Peace Deal
Notable Trades
Sharp wallet fading rally
Sharp profitable wallet with an 82% win rate is taking the No side after Yes rallied sharply, as part of a broad 15-market US-Iran thesis.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $639K lifetime.
- They have positioned across 15 related markets with $255K total exposure.
- This trade buys No at 22¢ after Yes jumped 43 points in a day.
$1,565 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Sharp serial cross-market trader
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 75% resolved win rate and +$244k P&L is abandoning No exposure amid a major pro-Yes price move.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved bets and is up $244k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 52 events with nearly $598k wagered.
- Selling No at 20¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 80¢, though this appears to close an old No position rather than add fresh size.
$1,075 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
Serial cross-market momentum bettor
Serial cross-market trader flipped into Yes ahead of a sharp rally, with related positioning across 5 markets despite an unproven lifetime P&L profile.
- This seasoned cross-market bettor has traded 32 events and is now backing the same US-Iran thesis across related markets.
- They bought Yes at 61¢ before the market jumped to 72¢, catching a 17-point move.
- Related event positioning totals $16.5k across 5 markets, suggesting this is part of a broader view.
$1,063 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%
75% winner joins Yes surge
Four-wallet Yes flow is supported by a proven 75% win-rate, +$245k trader and a large same-direction price move.
- A proven bettor in the cluster wins 75% of resolved trades and is up about $245k lifetime.
- Four wallets all backed Yes with $6.0k as the market jumped 49.5 percentage points in a day.
- The sharpest wallet effectively backed Yes at 80¢, while earlier cluster buys got in around 61–62¢.
$6,004 on Yes
15-for-15 diplomacy bettor
Sharp 15-for-15 wallet is expressing a bullish Yes view as part of a larger cross-market US-Iran diplomacy thesis.
- This bettor is 15-for-15 on resolved bets and up $21,250 lifetime.
- They have put $32,402 across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader US-Iran diplomacy thesis.
- Selling No at 67¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 33¢, close to the current 32¢ market price.
$4,436 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Sharp cross-market Iran bettor
Sharp profitable wallet with a 75% resolved win record is taking a cross-market No position against the recent US-Iran meeting rally.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $56k lifetime.
- They have nearly $39k positioned across 5 related US-Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- This trade effectively buys No at 59¢ while Yes has rallied 33.5 points this week.
$3,003 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
91% winner cross-market No
Sharp 91% lifetime winner is adding a contrarian No position as part of a large 10-market US-Iran thesis.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $7.8k lifetime.
- They have positioned across 10 related markets with $192k in total exposure.
- Buying No at 67¢ goes against the recent Yes rally, suggesting a deliberate contrarian view.
$1,005 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
91% winner fading spike
Sharp 91% lifetime bettor is taking the No side amid a major US-Iran volume spike and broad cross-market positioning.
- This bettor has won 91% of 214 resolved trades and is profitable across $755k invested.
- They have positioned across 10 related markets with about $206k in total exposure.
- The market just saw a 114x volume spike, but this wallet is buying No at 66¢ despite Yes jumping 20% today.
$3,892 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
91% winner buying No
Sharp 91% lifetime bettor with broad cross-market positioning bought No on a US-Iran diplomacy market and is already ahead from 55¢ to 62¢.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades across 214 markets and is up $7.8K lifetime.
- They have deployed over $150K across 10 related markets, suggesting a broad US-Iran thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought No at 55¢, and the market has already moved to 62¢ in their favor.
$4,229 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
Cross-market Iran contrarian
A profitable high-volume wallet is making a contrarian No buy while carrying a six-market, $114k thesis across the same US-Iran event.
- This wallet has placed $114k across 6 related markets, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- The bettor is lifetime profitable, up about $68k across 579 resolved trades.
- Buying No at 43¢ goes against a sharp Yes rally, implying they see the market as overextended.
$1,004 on No | Wallet win rate: 54%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $27,708 (69% win rate)
- 0x5739...5f1a — No, $14,954 (53% win rate)
- 0xa022...77f8 — Yes, $11,451 (71% win rate)
- 0xbacd...ab35 — Yes, $9,598 (48% win rate)
- 0x6139...6b7a — No, $9,000 (70% win rate)
- 0xe738...df65 — Yes, $8,381 (64% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — No, $8,075 (82% win rate)
- 0xb8b4...1f6e — No, $6,720 (68% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $5,086 (47% win rate)
- 0x6d16...7228 — No, $5,000 (61% win rate)
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