Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026?
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $16,551.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Peace Deal
Notable Trades
Experienced cluster buys long-shot Yes
Three experienced wallets are taking the same long-shot Yes side on a near-deadline US-Iran diplomacy market, including two profitable high-volume traders and one serial cross-market bettor.
- Three wallets put $6.3k on the same long-shot Yes side while the market sits near 8%.
- Two wallets are up about $362k combined lifetime across more than $30M traded.
- One bettor is a serial cross-market trader with $2.17M deployed across 104 markets.
$6,275 on Yes
Profitable serial event trader
A profitable serial cross-market trader bought the long-shot Yes after a sharp selloff while carrying a broader $117k event-level position.
- This bettor has traded 1,215 resolved markets, wins 55% of them, and is up about $210k lifetime.
- They have $117k spread across 16 related markets, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis rather than a one-off punt.
- Bought Yes at 5¢ after a sharp drop; the market is now around 9¢, but still within copy range.
$1,099 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 55%
Profitable political bettor
Sharp profitable wallet with 75% win rate and $66.5k lifetime profit bought $4.1k of No on a US-Iran meeting market as part of a cross-market thesis.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $66.5k lifetime.
- They put $4.1k on No at 88¢, backing the current favorite with meaningful size.
- The wallet has placed $7.6k across related US-Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
$4,097 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
77% cross-market bettor
Profitable 77% win-rate wallet is extending a large cross-market thesis with a $4k buy on No in a plausible geopolitics market.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $34.6k lifetime.
- They have built a $126k thesis across 14 related markets, not just a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 88¢ signals confidence that a US-Iran meeting will not happen by the deadline.
$1,078 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
77% cross-market bettor
Profitable 77% win-rate wallet is extending a large cross-market thesis with a $4k buy on No in a plausible geopolitics market.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $34.6k lifetime.
- They have built a $126k thesis across 14 related markets, not just a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 88¢ signals confidence that a US-Iran meeting will not happen by the deadline.
$4,003 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
Top Holders
- 0xaf46...8c1d — Outcome 46846235, $20,000 (45% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 46846235, $17,824 (69% win rate)
- 0x68c2...1711 — Outcome 46846235, $15,764 (55% win rate)
- 0x5109...5e9c — Outcome 46846235, $9,962 (39% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 46846235, $4,615 (82% win rate)
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — Outcome 46846235, $3,333 (63% win rate)
- 0x4214...6c68 — Outcome 46846235, $3,014
- 0x8c0b...f0fb — Outcome 46846235, $2,500 (81% win rate)
- 0xf2e7...843e — Outcome 46846235, $1,000
- 0x7975...f4a2 — Outcome 46846235, $884
Related Theses
Iran deal unlikely soon
Covers 9 related markets
No US-Iran peace deal
Covers 10 related markets
Iran talks won’t happen
Covers 16 related markets
Hormuz blockade stays in place
Covers 8 related markets
Iran keeps airspace open
Covers 4 related markets
US-Iran talks by June
Covers 16 related markets
