Part of: What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
15 smart money signals detected, totaling $64,861.
Categories: Strait of Hormuz, Oil, Geopolitics, Iran, Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Uranium, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Negotiation Topics
Notable Trades
79% serial cross-market trader
A profitable 79% winner with a long serial cross-market history is effectively moving toward Yes by selling No at 89¢, though it is partly an exit from a prior No position.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up about $6k lifetime.
- They have a long cross-market pattern: 28 events and $225k traded, suggesting a repeat thesis trader rather than a one-off bet.
- Selling No at 89¢ is equivalent to buying Yes around 11¢, a contrarian position against the current 90% No market.
$2,962 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
97% serial cross-market winner
A highly experienced, profitable serial cross-market trader bought No on a geopolitical market, making the wallet track record the main signal despite modest trade size.
- This bettor has won 97% of 1,861 resolved trades and is up $39.5k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $675k deployed across 112 markets in 97 events.
- Bought No at 88¢, signaling confidence that the U.S. will not accept Iranian uranium enrichment by the deadline.
$2,547 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%
Sharp buyer with 78% record
Surfaced because the buyer has a proven 78% record across 32 resolved bets with positive lifetime P&L and is adding to a fast-moving politics market.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $8.3K lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 27¢ after the market moved up 23 points this week.
- This is a repeat large-bet wallet with 7 prior flags, suggesting continued conviction.
$1,690 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%
Sharp buyer with 78% record
Surfaced because the buyer has a proven 78% record across 32 resolved bets with positive lifetime P&L and is adding to a fast-moving politics market.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $8.3K lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 27¢ after the market moved up 23 points this week.
- This is a repeat large-bet wallet with 7 prior flags, suggesting continued conviction.
$1,342 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%
87% winner buys No
Sharp-wallet override: a profitable bettor with an 87% resolved win rate bought $5k of No on a geopolitics market.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $3.8k lifetime.
- They beat the odds by 19 points on average across 15 resolved bets.
- A $5k No buy at 84¢ shows conviction against the current 82% market price.
$5,048 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
89% winner buying NO
Sharp wallet override: a highly profitable 89% winner made a $34k BUY No despite only a modest win-rate signal.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved bets and is up $4.57M lifetime.
- They put $34k on No at 88¢, showing strong confidence against a US-Iran enrichment agreement.
- The market has drifted lower since their fill, so current prices may be better than the trader’s entry.
$34,072 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
Sharp buyer with 78% record
Surfaced because the buyer has a proven 78% record across 32 resolved bets with positive lifetime P&L and is adding to a fast-moving politics market.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $8.3K lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 27¢ after the market moved up 23 points this week.
- This is a repeat large-bet wallet with 7 prior flags, suggesting continued conviction.
$2,700 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%
Sharp wallet buying YES
Surface due to sharp-wallet override: this profitable 82% win-rate bettor is buying Yes despite only a weak detection signal.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $51k lifetime.
- They are buying into strong momentum: Yes is up 13 points today and 22 points this week.
- Entry at 28¢ implies about a 3.6x payout if Yes wins.
$1,496 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
Sharp wallet buying YES
Surface due to sharp-wallet override: this profitable 82% win-rate bettor is buying Yes despite only a weak detection signal.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $51k lifetime.
- They are buying into strong momentum: Yes is up 13 points today and 22 points this week.
- Entry at 28¢ implies about a 3.6x payout if Yes wins.
$1,441 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
Sharp bettor fading spike
Sharp profitable wallet with a 77% win rate is fading a large Yes price spike by effectively buying No at 50¢.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $31K lifetime.
- They are fading a huge move after Yes jumped about 45 points in 24 hours.
- The wallet has been active across related markets, with $23.5K in same-event positioning.
$2,531 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Top Holders
- 0xe738...df65 — Outcome 24338497, $23,215 (64% win rate)
- 0xcb01...ead3 — Outcome 24338497, $22,294 (6% win rate)
- 0x8d7a...276f — Outcome 24338497, $14,043 (13% win rate)
- 0x17a5...c36f — Outcome 24338497, $12,302
- 0xaf23...aa95 — Outcome 24338497, $10,079 (63% win rate)
- 0x2b67...b814 — Outcome 24338497, $10,000 (74% win rate)
- 0x5109...5e9c — Outcome 24338497, $9,599 (40% win rate)
- 0x5139...9402 — Outcome 24338497, $9,018
- 0xcfb5...7d2d — Outcome 24338497, $8,893 (67% win rate)
- 0x9ad0...bf3d — Outcome 24338497, $8,841
Related Theses
No US-Iran peace deal
Covers 2 related markets
Iran talks won’t happen
Covers 16 related markets
Iran deal by mid-June
Covers 5 related markets
Iran deal unlikely soon
Covers 9 related markets
No US-Iran peace deal
Covers 10 related markets
Hormuz blockade stays in place
Covers 8 related markets
No early June deal
Covers 2 related markets
Iran keeps airspace open
Covers 3 related markets
US-Iran deal in late May
Covers 2 related markets
