Part of: What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment. The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran. - Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
15 smart money signals detected, totaling $64,861.
Categories: Strait of Hormuz, Oil, Geopolitics, Iran, Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Uranium, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Negotiation Topics
Notable Trades
79% serial cross-market trader
A profitable 79% winner with a long serial cross-market history is effectively moving toward Yes by selling No at 89¢, though it is partly an exit from a prior No position.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up about $6k lifetime.
- They have a long cross-market pattern: 28 events and $225k traded, suggesting a repeat thesis trader rather than a one-off bet.
- Selling No at 89¢ is equivalent to buying Yes around 11¢, a contrarian position against the current 90% No market.
$2,962 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
97% serial cross-market winner
A highly experienced, profitable serial cross-market trader bought No on a geopolitical market, making the wallet track record the main signal despite modest trade size.
- This bettor has won 97% of 1,861 resolved trades and is up $39.5k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $675k deployed across 112 markets in 97 events.
- Bought No at 88¢, signaling confidence that the U.S. will not accept Iranian uranium enrichment by the deadline.
$2,547 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%
Sharp buyer with 78% record
Surfaced because the buyer has a proven 78% record across 32 resolved bets with positive lifetime P&L and is adding to a fast-moving politics market.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $8.3K lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 27¢ after the market moved up 23 points this week.
- This is a repeat large-bet wallet with 7 prior flags, suggesting continued conviction.
$1,690 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Sharp buyer with 78% record
Surfaced because the buyer has a proven 78% record across 32 resolved bets with positive lifetime P&L and is adding to a fast-moving politics market.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $8.3K lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 27¢ after the market moved up 23 points this week.
- This is a repeat large-bet wallet with 7 prior flags, suggesting continued conviction.
$1,342 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
87% winner buys No
Sharp-wallet override: a profitable bettor with an 87% resolved win rate bought $5k of No on a geopolitics market.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $3.8k lifetime.
- They beat the odds by 19 points on average across 15 resolved bets.
- A $5k No buy at 84¢ shows conviction against the current 82% market price.
$5,048 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
89% winner buying NO
Sharp wallet override: a highly profitable 89% winner made a $34k BUY No despite only a modest win-rate signal.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved bets and is up $4.57M lifetime.
- They put $34k on No at 88¢, showing strong confidence against a US-Iran enrichment agreement.
- The market has drifted lower since their fill, so current prices may be better than the trader’s entry.
$34,072 on No | Wallet win rate: 50%
Sharp buyer with 78% record
Surfaced because the buyer has a proven 78% record across 32 resolved bets with positive lifetime P&L and is adding to a fast-moving politics market.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $8.3K lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 27¢ after the market moved up 23 points this week.
- This is a repeat large-bet wallet with 7 prior flags, suggesting continued conviction.
$2,700 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Sharp wallet buying YES
Surface due to sharp-wallet override: this profitable 82% win-rate bettor is buying Yes despite only a weak detection signal.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $51k lifetime.
- They are buying into strong momentum: Yes is up 13 points today and 22 points this week.
- Entry at 28¢ implies about a 3.6x payout if Yes wins.
$1,496 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
Sharp wallet buying YES
Surface due to sharp-wallet override: this profitable 82% win-rate bettor is buying Yes despite only a weak detection signal.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $51k lifetime.
- They are buying into strong momentum: Yes is up 13 points today and 22 points this week.
- Entry at 28¢ implies about a 3.6x payout if Yes wins.
$1,441 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
Sharp bettor fading spike
Sharp profitable wallet with a 77% win rate is fading a large Yes price spike by effectively buying No at 50¢.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $31K lifetime.
- They are fading a huge move after Yes jumped about 45 points in 24 hours.
- The wallet has been active across related markets, with $23.5K in same-event positioning.
$2,531 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
Related Theses
Iran deal by mid-June
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Iran deal unlikely soon
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No US-Iran peace deal
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No US-Iran peace deal
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Iran talks won’t happen
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Ceasefire by July 24, then reverses
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Iranian blockade will persist through August
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Iran blockade timing remains uncertain
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Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold
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