Part of: US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET). A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, the action will be judged based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and credible reporting.

12 smart money signals detected, totaling $36,009.

Categories: Iran, ceasefire, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Politics

Notable Trades

Seven-wallet funded No cluster

Seven wallets sharing a funder are aligned behind No, making this a notable coordinated position despite the trader's only moderate historical edge.

  • Seven wallets linked to the same funder are positioning around this market, signaling coordinated conviction on No.
  • The trader has a substantial 217-bet history and is up $132,411, though a 67% win rate is only moderate evidence of an edge.
  • No was bought at 73¢, close to the market's 71% implied probability, so the appeal is coordination rather than obvious mispricing.

$1,097 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Seven-wallet funded No cluster

Seven wallets sharing a funder are aligned behind No, making this a notable coordinated position despite the trader's only moderate historical edge.

  • Seven wallets linked to the same funder are positioning around this market, signaling coordinated conviction on No.
  • The trader has a substantial 217-bet history and is up $132,411, though a 67% win rate is only moderate evidence of an edge.
  • No was bought at 73¢, close to the market's 71% implied probability, so the appeal is coordination rather than obvious mispricing.

$3,021 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Seven-wallet No conviction cluster

Seven linked wallets and a sharp No price move make this coordinated positioning worth surfacing, despite the trader's mixed buy-sell activity and only market-rate historical record.

  • Seven wallets sharing a funder placed roughly $3,321 into this market, signaling coordinated No conviction.
  • No rose about 33% during the alert window alongside a 17.9x volume spike versus its historical average.
  • The trader has a 66% record across 222 resolved bets, but the opposing sell and prior No position make this a less clean copy than the cluster signal suggests.

$2,960 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Seven-wallet No conviction cluster

Seven linked wallets and a sharp No price move make this coordinated positioning worth surfacing, despite the trader's mixed buy-sell activity and only market-rate historical record.

  • Seven wallets sharing a funder placed roughly $3,321 into this market, signaling coordinated No conviction.
  • No rose about 33% during the alert window alongside a 17.9x volume spike versus its historical average.
  • The trader has a 66% record across 222 resolved bets, but the opposing sell and prior No position make this a less clean copy than the cluster signal suggests.

$4,513 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Seven-wallet No conviction cluster

Seven linked wallets and a sharp No price move make this coordinated positioning worth surfacing, despite the trader's mixed buy-sell activity and only market-rate historical record.

  • Seven wallets sharing a funder placed roughly $3,321 into this market, signaling coordinated No conviction.
  • No rose about 33% during the alert window alongside a 17.9x volume spike versus its historical average.
  • The trader has a 66% record across 222 resolved bets, but the opposing sell and prior No position make this a less clean copy than the cluster signal suggests.

$3,321 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Seven-wallet funded No cluster

Seven wallets sharing a funder are aligned behind No, making this a notable coordinated position despite the trader's only moderate historical edge.

  • Seven wallets linked to the same funder are positioning around this market, signaling coordinated conviction on No.
  • The trader has a substantial 217-bet history and is up $132,411, though a 67% win rate is only moderate evidence of an edge.
  • No was bought at 73¢, close to the market's 71% implied probability, so the appeal is coordination rather than obvious mispricing.

$1,554 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Seven-wallet funded No cluster

Seven wallets sharing a funder are aligned behind No, making this a notable coordinated position despite the trader's only moderate historical edge.

  • Seven wallets linked to the same funder are positioning around this market, signaling coordinated conviction on No.
  • The trader has a substantial 217-bet history and is up $132,411, though a 67% win rate is only moderate evidence of an edge.
  • No was bought at 73¢, close to the market's 71% implied probability, so the appeal is coordination rather than obvious mispricing.

$1,768 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Three-wallet Yes buying cluster

Three wallets coordinated roughly $6,575 of fresh or increased exposure to Yes, buying against a sharp 23-point daily decline despite only modest historical win rates.

  • Three wallets aligned on Yes with about $6,575 of exposure, including traders adding to existing positions.
  • The buying occurred after Yes fell 23 percentage points in one day, signaling conviction against the market's recent move.
  • Historical results are profitable but only modestly differentiated, with tracked win rates ranging from 49% to 56%.

$5,362 on Yes

Sharp trader trims Yes exposure

A highly profitable serial trader sold Yes despite a large existing position, signaling reduced confidence in the ceasefire outcome, though the move may partly reflect position management.

  • This bettor wins 78% of 90 resolved positions and is up $120,486 lifetime.
  • The trader has positioned across 39 events and 52 markets, showing a broad, repeatable trading history.
  • They sold Yes at 28¢ while holding $16,218 of Yes exposure, making the bearish signal meaningful but potentially partly risk reduction.

$1,071 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%

Four-wallet No conviction cluster

Four wallets concentrated $12.4K on No alongside a 20-point one-day move and a major volume spike, creating a credible coordinated directional signal despite mixed track records.

  • Four wallets committed $12,402 to No, including three direct buys between 63¢ and 68¢.
  • Yes fell 20 percentage points in one day while market volume spiked to 16.3 times its historical average.
  • Several traders were adding to existing No positions, signaling increased conviction rather than purely new exposure.

$7,342 on No

Top Holders

  1. 0x62cf...5826 Yes, $25,106 (66% win rate)
  2. 0xcb4c...6d64 No, $22,449 (35% win rate)
  3. 0x80a0...5708 No, $22,117 (41% win rate)
  4. 0xff1e...5e2d Yes, $20,296 (99% win rate)
  5. 0xeb22...808a No, $17,000 (34% win rate)
  6. 0x5a21...9318 No, $15,836 (62% win rate)
  7. 0x44c1...ebc1 No, $14,952 (61% win rate)
  8. 0x453a...81d2 No, $14,521 (44% win rate)
  9. 0x6d9f...9790 Yes, $12,560 (60% win rate)
  10. 0x524d...4495 Yes, $12,368 (78% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran blockade ends in August

Covers 7 related markets

Ceasefire lasts into October, not December

Covers 14 related markets

Fed will hike rates 25 bps

Covers 2 related markets

Iran ceasefire breaks, resumes, then ends

Covers 3 related markets

Ceasefire delayed beyond 2027

Covers 4 related markets

Ceasefire by July, briefly lapses, returns

Covers 4 related markets

Iran-Oman won’t reach agreement

Covers 1 related market

Musk won't post 160-179 tweets

Covers 1 related market

Israel will keep airspace open

Covers 1 related market

Musk tweets outside 200-219 range

Covers 1 related market

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?

ResolvedUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)$36,009 tracked12 signalsIranceasefirePeace DealGeopoliticsU.S. x IranIran CeasefirePolitics
Yes
77¢
No
24¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET). A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, the action will be judged based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
79¢
54¢
29¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?

13h ago

$1,097 on No at 73¢

73¢24¢49¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?

1d ago

$3,021 on No at 73¢

73¢24¢49¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?

2d ago

$2,960 on No at 78¢

78¢24¢54¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?

2d ago

$4,513 on No at 78¢

78¢24¢54¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?

2d ago

$3,321 on No at 78¢

78¢24¢54¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?

2d ago

$1,554 on No at 73¢

73¢24¢49¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?

2d ago

$1,768 on No at 73¢

73¢24¢49¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?

1d ago

$5,362 on Yes at 42¢

42¢77¢35¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?

6d ago

$1,071 on No at 72¢

72¢24¢48¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?

2d ago

$7,342 on No at 65¢

65¢24¢41¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?

6d ago

$1,099 on No at 73¢

73¢24¢49¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?

6d ago

$2,901 on Yes at 47¢

47¢77¢30¢

Related Theses