Part of: US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement (the MOU), including a 60-day negotiation period toward a “final deal”, extendable by mutual consent. This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the United States and Iran publicly and officially announce an extension of the 60-day negotiation period initiated by the MOU between market creation and August 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of a present extension of the 60-day negotiation period, a previously-unannounced prior extension of the 60-day negotiation period, or definitive agreement to extend the 60-day negotiation period. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify an extension of the 60-day negotiation period initiated by the MOU. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an extension, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. However, the announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU by name. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The extension must be mutually announced by the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Mutual announcement means that taken together, the announcements from the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran directly indicate that both parties have agreed to extend the 60-day negotiation period, or have recognized a definitive extension of the period. The following do not qualify as official announcements: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States or Iran; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States or Iran will announce or implement an extension of the 60-day negotiation period; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional extension of the 60-day negotiation period rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once an extension has been mutually announced by the United States and Iran, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the extension is ever actually implemented. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States and Iran, including their official representatives.
18 smart money signals detected, totaling $51,795.
Categories: Peace Deal, Politics, Iran, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
Proven cross-market sharp
A highly experienced cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win rate and large lifetime profits bought No on a geopolitics market at 42¢, though the bet size is modest relative to market liquidity.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $821k lifetime.
- They have traded 200 markets across 74 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Buying No at 42¢ implies they see extension odds as overpriced.
$1,476 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Profitable serial trader buys Yes
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 70% win rate is taking a fresh $3,600 equivalent position on Yes at 27–28% despite a sharp recent decline.
- This bettor has won 70% of 63 resolved trades and is up $76,240 lifetime.
- The trader is effectively buying Yes around 27–28% with $3,600, opposing a 35% one-week drop in Yes pricing.
- Their activity spans 27 events and 39 markets, suggesting a substantial repeat-trading record rather than a one-off bet.
$3,602 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
Serial cross-market sharp buying Yes
A proven, highly profitable serial trader is taking a fresh bullish position on Yes by selling No at an effective 35% price.
- This bettor wins 83% of 47 resolved trades and is up $41,329.
- Selling No at 65¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 35¢, despite Yes recently falling 23%.
- The wallet has traded across 28 events, suggesting a broad and repeatable information edge rather than a one-off bet.
$1,540 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
17-wallet sharp adding NO
A highly profitable 93% winner from a 17-wallet funded cluster is adding to an existing No position on a geopolitics market with recent No-side momentum.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up about $94.7K lifetime.
- 17 wallets share the same funder, and this wallet is adding to an existing No position.
- The market has moved strongly toward No over the past week, and they are still buying at 54¢.
$2,463 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
90% cross-market sharp
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 90% resolved win rate bought $5k of Yes on a geopolitical extension market.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $31.6k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 27 events, suggesting a repeatable research edge.
- A $5k buy at 63¢ implies confidence despite a liquid order book and stable recent price.
$1,694 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
Proven cross-market sharp
A highly experienced cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win rate and large lifetime profits bought No on a geopolitics market at 42¢, though the bet size is modest relative to market liquidity.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $821k lifetime.
- They have traded 200 markets across 74 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Buying No at 42¢ implies they see extension odds as overpriced.
$1,002 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Proven cross-market sharp
A highly experienced cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win rate and large lifetime profits bought No on a geopolitics market at 42¢, though the bet size is modest relative to market liquidity.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $821k lifetime.
- They have traded 200 markets across 74 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Buying No at 42¢ implies they see extension odds as overpriced.
$1,596 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Proven cross-market sharp
A highly experienced cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win rate and large lifetime profits bought No on a geopolitics market at 42¢, though the bet size is modest relative to market liquidity.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $821k lifetime.
- They have traded 200 markets across 74 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Buying No at 42¢ implies they see extension odds as overpriced.
$3,087 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
17-wallet sharp adding NO
A highly profitable 93% winner from a 17-wallet funded cluster is adding to an existing No position on a geopolitics market with recent No-side momentum.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up about $94.7K lifetime.
- 17 wallets share the same funder, and this wallet is adding to an existing No position.
- The market has moved strongly toward No over the past week, and they are still buying at 54¢.
$1,486 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
17-wallet sharp adding NO
A highly profitable 93% winner from a 17-wallet funded cluster is adding to an existing No position on a geopolitics market with recent No-side momentum.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up about $94.7K lifetime.
- 17 wallets share the same funder, and this wallet is adding to an existing No position.
- The market has moved strongly toward No over the past week, and they are still buying at 54¢.
$2,148 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
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