Part of: US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

18 smart money signals detected, totaling $51,795.

Categories: Peace Deal, Politics, Iran, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

Proven cross-market sharp

A highly experienced cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win rate and large lifetime profits bought No on a geopolitics market at 42¢, though the bet size is modest relative to market liquidity.

  • This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $821k lifetime.
  • They have traded 200 markets across 74 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
  • Buying No at 42¢ implies they see extension odds as overpriced.

$1,476 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Profitable serial trader buys Yes

A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 70% win rate is taking a fresh $3,600 equivalent position on Yes at 27–28% despite a sharp recent decline.

  • This bettor has won 70% of 63 resolved trades and is up $76,240 lifetime.
  • The trader is effectively buying Yes around 27–28% with $3,600, opposing a 35% one-week drop in Yes pricing.
  • Their activity spans 27 events and 39 markets, suggesting a substantial repeat-trading record rather than a one-off bet.

$3,602 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%

Serial cross-market sharp buying Yes

A proven, highly profitable serial trader is taking a fresh bullish position on Yes by selling No at an effective 35% price.

  • This bettor wins 83% of 47 resolved trades and is up $41,329.
  • Selling No at 65¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 35¢, despite Yes recently falling 23%.
  • The wallet has traded across 28 events, suggesting a broad and repeatable information edge rather than a one-off bet.

$1,540 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%

17-wallet sharp adding NO

A highly profitable 93% winner from a 17-wallet funded cluster is adding to an existing No position on a geopolitics market with recent No-side momentum.

  • This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up about $94.7K lifetime.
  • 17 wallets share the same funder, and this wallet is adding to an existing No position.
  • The market has moved strongly toward No over the past week, and they are still buying at 54¢.

$2,463 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

90% cross-market sharp

Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 90% resolved win rate bought $5k of Yes on a geopolitical extension market.

  • This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $31.6k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 27 events, suggesting a repeatable research edge.
  • A $5k buy at 63¢ implies confidence despite a liquid order book and stable recent price.

$1,694 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%

Proven cross-market sharp

A highly experienced cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win rate and large lifetime profits bought No on a geopolitics market at 42¢, though the bet size is modest relative to market liquidity.

  • This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $821k lifetime.
  • They have traded 200 markets across 74 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
  • Buying No at 42¢ implies they see extension odds as overpriced.

$1,002 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Proven cross-market sharp

A highly experienced cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win rate and large lifetime profits bought No on a geopolitics market at 42¢, though the bet size is modest relative to market liquidity.

  • This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $821k lifetime.
  • They have traded 200 markets across 74 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
  • Buying No at 42¢ implies they see extension odds as overpriced.

$1,596 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Proven cross-market sharp

A highly experienced cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win rate and large lifetime profits bought No on a geopolitics market at 42¢, though the bet size is modest relative to market liquidity.

  • This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $821k lifetime.
  • They have traded 200 markets across 74 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
  • Buying No at 42¢ implies they see extension odds as overpriced.

$3,087 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

17-wallet sharp adding NO

A highly profitable 93% winner from a 17-wallet funded cluster is adding to an existing No position on a geopolitics market with recent No-side momentum.

  • This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up about $94.7K lifetime.
  • 17 wallets share the same funder, and this wallet is adding to an existing No position.
  • The market has moved strongly toward No over the past week, and they are still buying at 54¢.

$1,486 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

17-wallet sharp adding NO

A highly profitable 93% winner from a 17-wallet funded cluster is adding to an existing No position on a geopolitics market with recent No-side momentum.

  • This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up about $94.7K lifetime.
  • 17 wallets share the same funder, and this wallet is adding to an existing No position.
  • The market has moved strongly toward No over the past week, and they are still buying at 54¢.

$2,148 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

Top Holders

  1. 0xc84f...e0c5 Outcome 93838758, $74,351 (87% win rate)
  2. 0xc15b...38af Outcome 93838758, $40,000 (81% win rate)
  3. 0x3c59...1766 Outcome 93838758, $19,836 (73% win rate)
  4. 0xbd04...fbb0 Outcome 93838758, $18,574 (73% win rate)
  5. 0x38f5...6824 Outcome 93838758, $15,925 (51% win rate)
  6. 0xbbce...3da1 Outcome 93838758, $13,948
  7. 0xdaef...54e9 Outcome 93838758, $10,000 (67% win rate)
  8. 0x79d9...baec Outcome 93838758, $7,000 (91% win rate)
  9. 0x4a2b...af20 Outcome 93838758, $7,000 (49% win rate)
  10. 0x7e31...454d Outcome 93838758, $6,309 (70% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 11 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

World Cup favorites prevail

Covers 4 related markets

Hormuz blockade persists

Covers 9 related markets

Calendar arbitrage on talks

Covers 16 related markets

Crude oil market arbitrage

Covers 11 related markets

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

ResolvedUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$51,795 tracked18 signalsPeace DealPoliticsIranGeopoliticsU.S. x Iran

On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement (the MOU), including a 60-day negotiation period toward a “final deal”, extendable by mutual consent. This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the United States and Iran publicly and officially announce an extension of the 60-day negotiation period initiated by the MOU between market creation and August 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of a present extension of the 60-day negotiation period, a previously-unannounced prior extension of the 60-day negotiation period, or definitive agreement to extend the 60-day negotiation period. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify an extension of the 60-day negotiation period initiated by the MOU. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an extension, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. However, the announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU by name. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The extension must be mutually announced by the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Mutual announcement means that taken together, the announcements from the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran directly indicate that both parties have agreed to extend the 60-day negotiation period, or have recognized a definitive extension of the period. The following do not qualify as official announcements: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States or Iran; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States or Iran will announce or implement an extension of the 60-day negotiation period; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional extension of the 60-day negotiation period rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once an extension has been mutually announced by the United States and Iran, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the extension is ever actually implemented. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States and Iran, including their official representatives.

Price History — “No
102¢
87¢
73¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

28d ago

$1,476 on No at 42¢

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

31d ago

$3,602 on Yes at 28¢

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

32d ago

$1,540 on Yes at 35¢

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

34d ago

$2,463 on No at 54¢

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

36d ago

$1,694 on Yes at 63¢

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

41d ago

$1,002 on No at 42¢

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

48d ago

$1,596 on No at 42¢

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

56d ago

$3,087 on No at 42¢

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

58d ago

$1,486 on No at 54¢

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

59d ago

$2,148 on No at 54¢

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

60d ago

$3,760 on No at 54¢

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

61d ago

$2,647 on No at 42¢

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

62d ago

$7,433 on No at 45¢

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

62d ago

$2,131 on No at 42¢

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

70d ago

$5,040 on Yes at 63¢

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

70d ago

$4,064 on No at 41¢

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

72d ago

$2,000 on Yes at 62¢

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

72d ago

$4,625 on Yes at 62¢

Related Theses

Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 11 related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 4 related markets
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 5 related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 12 related markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 8 related markets
Iran closes its airspace by Ju…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…
Iran deal by mid-June
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 13 related markets
US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…
World Cup favorites prevail
Wallet_0x9c987 trades 4 related markets
Will England win the 2026 FIFA…Will France win the 2026 FIFA …Will Argentina win the 2026 FI…
Hormuz blockade persists
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 9 related markets
Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…
Calendar arbitrage on talks
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 16 related markets
US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…
Crude oil market arbitrage
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 11 related markets
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) …Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…