Part of: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Russia and Ukraine will reach a mutually agreed ceasefire by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves Yes if both countries officially announce or credible reporting confirms a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement; otherwise, it resolves No. PolySpotter currently tracks $6,716 in smart money across one signal, including recent activity favoring Yes.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $17,572.

Categories: Ukraine Peace Deal, Politics, Ukraine, Russia, putin, Geopolitics, zelensky, Trump, zelenskyy

Notable Trades

Six-wallet funded cluster favors Yes

Six linked wallets collectively took a sizable position favoring Yes, making this coordinated flow worth monitoring despite the lead wallet's mixed profit-taking history.

  • Six wallets sharing a funder moved $6,716 on the same market, a strong coordinated signal.
  • The lead wallet has resolved 67% of 113 bets and is up about $79,800, though its average winning entry of 93% limits the evidence of exceptional edge.
  • The two No sales translate to buying Yes around 17¢ and 37¢, with the market now pricing Yes at 36%.

$6,716 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

New profitable wallet flips Yes

Very new repeat bettor with early profits is exiting No exposure, effectively taking the Yes side on a plausible geopolitical market.

  • This wallet is only 1 day old but has already made 5 positions and is up $314.
  • It has been flagged twice for larger bets, with $4.3k total across recent alerts.
  • Selling No at 54¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 46¢.

$1,335 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader with 659 resolved bets is buying No on a high-profile ceasefire market despite recent Yes momentum.

  • This bettor has a long track record: 61% wins across 659 resolved bets and $228k in profit.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 157 events and $1.4M in tracked volume.
  • They are fading the recent Yes rally, buying No at 48¢ after Yes moved up 10.5 points this week.

$2,635 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved history is buying No on a geopolitics market, making the wallet track record the main signal despite modest size.

  • This bettor is up $384k across $2.8M invested, with 1,061 resolved bets.
  • They win 61% of resolved trades and have bet across 278 different events.
  • They bought No at 56¢, backing no ceasefire agreement by the deadline.

$1,120 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%

Serial geopolitics trader

Serial cross-market bettor with a large positive lifetime P&L is taking a fresh No position on a plausible geopolitical market, though the sizing is moderate and the edge is not overwhelming.

  • This bettor has traded across 27 events and is up about $320K lifetime.
  • They have a deep track record with 834 resolved bets and a 62% win rate.
  • The $2.75K No buy at 55¢ implies they see ceasefire odds below the market’s 44% Yes price.

$2,750 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%

Profitable serial cross-market trader

Profitable high-volume serial cross-market trader bought No on a geopolitically meaningful market, though the individual bet size is moderate.

  • This bettor has a long record: 834 resolved markets, 62% wins, and $320K lifetime profit.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $428K tracked across 49 markets, suggesting a repeat thesis-driven style.
  • Entry at 54¢ on No implies they see the ceasefire deadline as less likely than current market odds suggest.

$3,015 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%

Top Holders

  1. 0xb886...81b3 Yes, $24,849 (53% win rate)
  2. 0x32b4...7f09 No, $21,271 (100% win rate)
  3. 0xc701...920e No, $20,782 (32% win rate)
  4. 0x48ee...008c Yes, $19,509 (38% win rate)
  5. 0x8bfe...c44d No, $15,866 (70% win rate)
  6. 0xf989...47cc Yes, $11,037 (71% win rate)
  7. 0x8c57...f939 Yes, $10,353 (71% win rate)
  8. 0x9648...6825 No, $10,104 (69% win rate)
  9. 0x8448...79bb Yes, $10,000 (25% win rate)
  10. 0xbef5...1c5a Yes, $10,000 (56% win rate)

Related Theses

Ceasefire ends before August 31

Covers 11 related markets

Ceasefire arrives in late August

Covers 4 related markets

No US-Iran meeting soon

Covers 10 related markets

Iran peace deal unlikely

Covers 7 related markets

Covers 8 related markets

US-Iran talks won't happen

Covers 7 related markets

Covers 6 related markets

No Iran agreement announced

Covers 12 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Iran keeps airspace open

Covers 8 related markets

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

143dRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?$17,572 tracked6 signalsUkraine Peace DealPoliticsUkraineRussiaputinGeopoliticszelenskyTrumpzelenskyy
Yes
36¢
No
65¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
68¢
66¢
63¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

10d ago

$6,716 on Yes at 21¢

21¢36¢15¢

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

56d ago

$1,335 on Yes at 46¢

46¢36¢10¢

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

65d ago

$2,635 on No at 48¢

48¢65¢17¢

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

87d ago

$1,120 on No at 56¢

56¢65¢9¢

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

87d ago

$2,750 on No at 55¢

55¢65¢10¢

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

87d ago

$3,015 on No at 54¢

54¢65¢11¢

Related Theses