What is the Iran airspace closure prediction market about?

This market asks whether Iran will initiate a major closure of its airspace by July 15, 2026. A qualifying event must involve a broad suspension, cancellation, or closure affecting commercial flights transiting, arriving in, or departing from Iran or a major Iranian airspace region.

What counts as a “Yes” outcome for this market?

The market resolves “Yes” if Iran closes a major portion of its airspace for reasons other than weather by the deadline. The closure must be broad enough to affect commercial aviation generally, not just isolated flights or limited operational disruptions.

When does the Iran airspace market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve based on whether a qualifying airspace closure occurs by July 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

Does a weather-related closure count?

No. The market rules state that the closure must not be solely due to weather conditions. Weather-driven flight cancellations or airspace restrictions would not qualify on their own.

What smart money activity is PolySpotter tracking?

PolySpotter is tracking $1,200 in smart money on this market and 1 smart money signal. Recent alerts include a 98% winner buying Yes, along with activity from sharp and profitable bettors focused on Iran-related markets.

Part of: Iran closes its airspace by...?

Iran closes its airspace by July 15?

This prediction market tracks whether Iran will initiate a major non-weather-related closure of its airspace by July 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves “Yes” if commercial flights are broadly suspended, cancelled, or blocked across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $1,200 in smart money and 1 smart money signal, including activity from profitable Iran-focused bettors.

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $9,566.

Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran

Notable Trades

Profitable cross-market Iran bettor

Profitable high-volume wallet is building a cross-market Iran airspace thesis, and this Yes buy preceded a sharp move from 55¢ to 67¢.

This bettor is up $124K lifetime and has traded over $4.6M across resolved markets.
They have put $32K across 8 related Iran markets, suggesting a broader geopolitical thesis.
This Yes buy entered at 55¢ and the market has already moved to 67¢ after a sharp one-day jump.

$1,200 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 49%

98% winner buying Yes

Elite 98% lifetime winner with large positive P&L bought Yes and has related cross-market positioning on the same event.

This bettor wins 98% of resolved trades and is up $811K lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader with 113 events tracked and a 98% hit rate.
This is part of a broader event thesis across 3 related markets totaling $7.7K.

$1,271 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%

Cross-market Iran bettor

A profitable wallet is building a broad Iran-related thesis, with $121k across 9 related markets and a fresh No buy in a relatively quiet market.

This bettor has placed $121k across 9 related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
The wallet is up $44k lifetime and is buying No at 76¢ on a quiet market with only about $3k traded in 24 hours.
This trade alone is roughly half of the market’s 24h volume, showing conviction despite thin activity.

$1,496 on No | Wallet win rate: 54%

Sharp cross-market Iran bettor

Sharp wallet with an 82% resolved win rate and $562k profit is adding to a large cross-market Iran airspace thesis by buying No at 75¢.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $562k lifetime.
They have traded 6 related markets on this event for $76.7k, suggesting a broad thesis rather than a one-off bet.
Entry at 75¢ on No implies they see Iran airspace closure as less likely than the market suggests.

$1,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Profitable Iran-event bettor

A profitable high-volume wallet is building a broader Iran-event thesis and just made a market-moving No bet in a very thin, wide-spread market.

This bettor is up $120K lifetime and has put nearly $32K across 6 related Iran markets.
The $4.1K No buy is large for this market, nearly matching the entire 24h volume of $4.4K.
The market is thin and volatile, with a 21¢ spread and Yes up 27% in the past day.

$4,100 on No | Wallet win rate: 49%

Top Holders

0xfd66...fb6d — Outcome 85525607, $14,415 (23% win rate)
0x77c8...bc8c — Outcome 85525607, $5,000 (36% win rate)
0x8a98...1b92 — Outcome 85525607, $2,493 (54% win rate)
0xee67...67a6 — Outcome 85525607, $2,398
0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 85525607, $2,200 (82% win rate)
0xb4f2...e5fa — Outcome 85525607, $1,880 (71% win rate)
0x2974...9c23 — Outcome 85525607, $1,872 (88% win rate)
0xcca9...4c9f — Outcome 85525607, $1,279 (63% win rate)
0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 85525607, $1,070 (71% win rate)
0xeb49...693e — Outcome 85525607, $1,028 (79% win rate)

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Iran closes its airspace by July 15?

13dIran closes its airspace by...?$9,566 tracked5 signalsPoliticsGeopoliticsU.S. x IranIran

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN). Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.