Part of: US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
16 smart money signals detected, totaling $181,678.
Categories: Iran, Trump, Blockade, Politics, shipping, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
10-wallet Yes consensus
A coordinated 10-wallet move toward Yes, spanning three related markets, is a meaningful directional signal despite this wallet’s mediocre track record and existing No position.
- Ten wallets bought Yes together, committing nearly $39,000 to the same outcome.
- This trader reduced No exposure across three sales, equivalent to buying Yes at an average of about 43¢.
- The wallet is profitable overall but has only a 55% win rate, so the coordinated flow matters more than its individual record.
$14,354 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 52%
Serial 90% winner adds to No
A serial cross-market trader with a 90% win rate is adding $5,271 to an existing No position, though the edge over their typical winning price is modest.
- This bettor has won 90% of 113 resolved trades and is up $153,487 overall.
- They are adding $5,271 to an existing No position at 88¢, signaling continued conviction.
- The No price has recently risen to 88% after a 17-point daily move, supporting the direction but limiting upside.
$5,271 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
94% winner in 19-wallet No cluster
A highly profitable serial trader with a 94% win rate is adding to a No position alongside 19 linked wallets, creating strong corroborated conviction.
- This bettor has won 94% of 235 resolved trades and is up $154,480, while buying at an average winning price of 69%.
- Nineteen wallets sharing a funder are aligned on No, with this trader adding another $5,000 to an existing position.
- The No share was bought at 84¢, implying the trader sees the blockade continuing through the deadline as highly likely.
$6,610 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
10-wallet Yes consensus
A coordinated 10-wallet move toward Yes, spanning three related markets, is a meaningful directional signal despite this wallet’s mediocre track record and existing No position.
- Ten wallets bought Yes together, committing nearly $39,000 to the same outcome.
- This trader reduced No exposure across three sales, equivalent to buying Yes at an average of about 43¢.
- The wallet is profitable overall but has only a 55% win rate, so the coordinated flow matters more than its individual record.
$4,946 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 52%
10-wallet Yes consensus
A coordinated 10-wallet move toward Yes, spanning three related markets, is a meaningful directional signal despite this wallet’s mediocre track record and existing No position.
- Ten wallets bought Yes together, committing nearly $39,000 to the same outcome.
- This trader reduced No exposure across three sales, equivalent to buying Yes at an average of about 43¢.
- The wallet is profitable overall but has only a 55% win rate, so the coordinated flow matters more than its individual record.
$9,219 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 52%
10-wallet coordinated Yes buying
Ten wallets are buying Yes with nearly $39,000 of coordinated flow, although this individual wallet’s trades largely reflect existing-position management rather than fresh conviction.
- Ten wallets are aligned on Yes, committing nearly $39,000 to a market currently priced at just 28%.
- The coordinated buying is notable despite a 17.3-point one-day decline, suggesting traders are betting on a rebound or reversal.
- This wallet has a large but only moderately strong record: 58% wins across 1,360 resolved bets and $160,713 lifetime profit.
$5,659 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
10-wallet Yes consensus
A coordinated 10-wallet move toward Yes, spanning three related markets, is a meaningful directional signal despite this wallet’s mediocre track record and existing No position.
- Ten wallets bought Yes together, committing nearly $39,000 to the same outcome.
- This trader reduced No exposure across three sales, equivalent to buying Yes at an average of about 43¢.
- The wallet is profitable overall but has only a 55% win rate, so the coordinated flow matters more than its individual record.
$6,683 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 52%
Four-wallet Yes buying cluster
Four wallets converted into roughly $10.6K of coordinated Yes exposure during a 10.4x volume spike, though the signal is weakened by prior positions and middling trader performance.
- Four wallets took roughly $10,553 of effective Yes exposure, including both direct Yes buys and No sells.
- The activity arrived during a 10.4x historical volume spike, suggesting an unusually concentrated thesis on the blockade ending.
- The traders are not elite copy candidates—track records are mixed, and several had prior positions on this market.
$9,237 on Yes
Sharp linked wallets rotate toward Yes
A proven 94% bettor and linked wallets are simultaneously selling No, creating a meaningful coordinated signal toward Yes despite the market’s recent Yes rally.
- A bettor with a 94% win rate across 257 resolved trades and $183,000 in profit is selling No around 64¢.
- Three wallets are aligned, with the broader funding network spanning 19 wallets and the lead trader active across 52 events.
- The equivalent Yes entry is about 36¢, while recent momentum has already pushed Yes up 16.8% in one day.
$3,947 on Yes
94% winner in 19-wallet No cluster
A highly profitable serial trader with a 94% win rate is adding to a No position alongside 19 linked wallets, creating strong corroborated conviction.
- This bettor has won 94% of 235 resolved trades and is up $154,480, while buying at an average winning price of 69%.
- Nineteen wallets sharing a funder are aligned on No, with this trader adding another $5,000 to an existing position.
- The No share was bought at 84¢, implying the trader sees the blockade continuing through the deadline as highly likely.
$1,806 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Top Holders
- 0xc84f...e0c5 — Yes, $112,237 (87% win rate)
- 0x1cc1...b8df — Yes, $50,827 (56% win rate)
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — Yes, $22,845 (64% win rate)
- 0x28ba...b673 — Yes, $20,000 (84% win rate)
- 0x3c59...1766 — Yes, $17,790 (73% win rate)
- 0xaacb...90cb — Yes, $12,646 (70% win rate)
- 0xd109...6fa0 — Yes, $10,616 (82% win rate)
- 0x5039...946d — Yes, $8,500 (58% win rate)
- 0x0b91...ae77 — Yes, $7,500 (36% win rate)
- 0xe234...304a — Yes, $7,018 (66% win rate)
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