Part of: What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?
9 smart money signals detected, totaling $15,519.
Categories: Iran, Sanctions, toll, Iran Ceasefire, Trump, Strait of Hormuz, Enrich, Geopolitics, Politics, U.S. x Iran, Uranium
Notable Trades
80% winner buying NO
A profitable 80% winner is adding a cross-market geopolitical thesis by buying No near 88¢, aligned with recent market momentum.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $1,022 lifetime.
- They have $3,615 positioned across two related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 88¢ aligns with recent movement, with Yes down 8.5 points over the past week.
$1,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
92% winner buying Yes
Sharp wallet with a 92% historical win rate bought Yes on a geopolitics market that has already moved sharply upward.
- This bettor has won 60 of 65 resolved trades and is up about $9.5k lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 54¢ after a major move, with the market up 38 points in the last day.
- Entry at 54¢ implies they still see value despite the recent momentum.
$1,174 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
84% winner flips to Yes
Sharp wallet with an 84% win rate and $446k profit flipped from No to buying Yes amid a major 1-day price surge and cross-market positioning.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $446k lifetime.
- They closed a prior No position and are now buying Yes at 69¢, signaling a clear thesis flip.
- The market has surged 54 points in 24 hours, and this wallet is also active across related markets.
$1,377 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
84% winner flips Yes
Sharp wallet with an 84% resolved win rate and $446k lifetime profit bought Yes after previously closing a No position, amid major upward price momentum.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $446k lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 59¢ after closing a prior No position, suggesting a clear thesis shift.
- The market has moved hard toward Yes, up 47.5 points in one day, and this entry is already in profit.
$1,278 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% long-run win rate is buying No despite recent Yes momentum.
- This bettor has won 74% of 708 resolved bets and is up $370K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 577 markets with $1.9M total deployed.
- Buying No at 58¢ goes against a sharp recent Yes move, suggesting a contrarian view on the Iran-assets headline.
$1,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
84% winner buying Yes
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 84% resolved win rate and +$435k lifetime P&L is effectively buying Yes on a geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $435k lifetime.
- They are a proven cross-market trader, active across 112 markets with $1.6M traded.
- Selling No at 87¢ is the same as buying Yes at 13¢, slightly above the current 12¢ odds.
$1,306 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
77% serial cross-market winner
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 77% win rate is buying No despite recent Yes momentum on a policy market.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved bets and is up $310k lifetime.
- They have traded across 34 events and 39 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- The $4k No buy fades a recent Yes rally, with entry around 78¢.
$4,020 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%
Profitable serial cross-market trader
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 75% record and $310k profit is buying No on a geopolitics market with meaningful recent movement.
- This bettor has won 75% of 99 resolved bets and is up $310k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $408k placed across 34 events.
- Buying No at 76¢ shows they are fading the recent Yes move despite Yes rising about 11 points this week.
$2,168 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%
Profitable serial cross-market trader
A long-running profitable cross-market trader with 1,460 resolved bets and +$197k lifetime P&L bought No on a geopolitical market.
- This bettor has a large track record: 1,460 resolved bets and about $197k in lifetime profit.
- They repeatedly trade related markets, with activity across 154 event groups and $1.5M flagged in this pattern.
- Buying No at 85¢ fits the market’s current 86% No pricing, with odds moving 5 points toward this side today.
$1,496 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%
Top Holders
- 0xc040...beac — Outcome 10192582, $21,683 (45% win rate)
- 0x02a1...dd72 — Outcome 10192582, $5,032
- 0x1e1f...c855 — Outcome 10192582, $5,000 (57% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 10192582, $4,544 (69% win rate)
- 0xb51b...b4d9 — Outcome 10192582, $4,099 (61% win rate)
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 10192582, $4,000 (45% win rate)
- 0x80a0...5708 — Outcome 10192582, $2,767 (36% win rate)
- 0x131a...73f9 — Outcome 10192582, $2,766 (64% win rate)
- 0x0042...321e — Outcome 10192582, $2,432 (47% win rate)
- 0x066a...550d — Outcome 10192582, $2,067 (60% win rate)
Related Theses
Crude stays range-bound
Covers 9 related markets
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Covers 5 related markets
Iran deal by May
Covers 10 related markets
Hormuz blockade lifts in late June
Covers 8 related markets
