Part of: US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?
This Polymarket market asks whether the US government will publicly announce the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of its naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers by March 31, 2027. Live odds were not included in the supplied market data; the market resolves based on an official announcement made by 11:59 PM ET on the deadline.
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,309.
Categories: Iran, Trump, Blockade, Politics, shipping, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
Five-wallet linked Yes position
Five wallets linked by a shared funder have built coordinated exposure, and this trader is adding to an existing Yes position despite an otherwise unremarkable track record.
- Five wallets sharing a funder have appeared in this market, with activity recurring across prior scans.
- This bettor is adding Yes at 57¢ to an existing $2,176 position, though their 45% win rate offers little independent evidence of an edge.
$1,186 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 45%
Five-wallet linked Yes position
Five wallets linked by a shared funder have built coordinated exposure, and this trader is adding to an existing Yes position despite an otherwise unremarkable track record.
- Five wallets sharing a funder have appeared in this market, with activity recurring across prior scans.
- This bettor is adding Yes at 57¢ to an existing $2,176 position, though their 45% win rate offers little independent evidence of an edge.
$1,012 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 45%
Proven sharp, 10-market event position
A highly profitable bettor with a strong long-term record is buying No and has positioned across 10 markets in the same event.
- This bettor has won 76% of 378 resolved trades and is up $763,202 lifetime.
- They have traded 10 markets tied to this event, totaling $66,439, with activity seen across prior runs.
- They bought No at 37¢, while the current price is 40¢.
$2,111 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Top Holders
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — No, $6,352 (76% win rate)
- 0x0845...6b6f — Yes, $3,624 (70% win rate)
- 0x2a32...0188 — Yes, $2,302
- 0x7c3d...5c6b — Yes, $2,222 (53% win rate)
- 0x0c45...6bbf — No, $2,088
- 0x588c...1bf4 — No, $2,000
- 0x9d73...216b — No, $1,930 (73% win rate)
- 0x9ddf...2c83 — Yes, $1,861 (25% win rate)
- 0x58e1...f652 — No, $1,643
- 0x36d9...c3ca — Yes, $1,579 (72% win rate)
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