Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
7 smart money signals detected, totaling $40,206.
Categories: Politics, Middle East, Geopolitics, Trump, Iran, US-Iran, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Diplomacy & Ceasefire
Notable Trades
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?
A proven high-volume bettor with a 75% win rate is re-entering and sizing up on No as part of a broader 3-market event thesis.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades across 270 markets and is up $142.9k lifetime
- They are betting across 3 related markets in this event with $39.2k total, suggesting a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off trade
- This is a fresh re-entry into No at 88¢ after previously closing a smaller position, showing renewed conviction
$7,625 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?
A profitable 75% win-rate wallet is re-entering a sizable No position as part of a broader 3-market thesis on the same event.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up about $143k lifetime
- They placed a $9.4k bet as part of a 3-market view on the same event, suggesting a deliberate thesis rather than a one-off punt
- They are buying No around 89¢ in a liquid market, reinforcing a high-confidence view that no qualifying end announcement comes by April 7
$9,369 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?
A wallet with a strong early track record bought No at 85¢ in a news-driven geopolitical market, and it is also positioning across related markets in the same event.
- This bettor wins 94% of resolved trades and is up $8.6k so far
- They put $3.6k into No at 85¢ on a news-driven market, showing clear conviction
- The wallet is also trading 2 related markets in the same event, suggesting a broader thesis
$3,600 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?
A proven high-volume trader with an 83% win rate is making a fresh cross-market event bet, buying No at 88¢ in line with a broader thesis across 5 related Iran-operation markets.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades across 232 markets and has deployed $1.87M total
- They have put $81,090 across 5 related markets in this same event, pointing to a clear event-wide thesis
- Bought No at 88¢ and the market is now 92¢, so this entry already looks better than current odds
$5,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?
A 26-day-old wallet has already made nine large flagged bets and is pressing a sizable position into a politically driven event market, suggesting real conviction despite no resolved track record yet.
- This 26-day-old wallet has already triggered 9 large-bet alerts and put over $53k into flagged trades
- They just bought No with $7.5k at 90¢, a strong high-confidence stance in a politics market
- The wallet is also betting across 2 related event markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt
$7,491 on No
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?
A profitable high-volume bettor with a 70% win rate sold No into a very thin market, effectively taking Yes at a better price than the current odds while also showing related-event positioning.
- This bettor has won 450 of 641 resolved trades and is up about $411k lifetime.
- They sold No at 71¢ in a market with only about $3k of 24-hour volume, a bet bigger than the entire day's flow.
- That exit price implies a Yes position around 29¢, below the current 34¢ market price.
$3,100 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?
A proven profitable bettor with 641 resolved trades bought No in a very thin geopolitical market with a $4,020 order that exceeded the market’s full 24h volume.
- This bettor has won 70% of 641 resolved trades and is up $411k lifetime
- The $4,020 buy was bigger than the market’s entire $2,996 24-hour volume, showing real conviction
- They’re betting No at 67¢ in a geopolitical market where informed positioning is more plausible than in meme markets
$4,020 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
Top Holders
- 0x3355...a126 — No, $98,163 (100% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Yes, $78,216 (87% win rate)
- 0xd57d...80d0 — Yes, $54,765 (82% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $44,427 (71% win rate)
- 0x14cf...c320 — Yes, $33,989
- 0xac5c...7b5b — Yes, $21,933
- 0x3627...7f59 — No, $13,121
- 0x4a41...242a — No, $13,090 (54% win rate)
- 0x2005...e414 — No, $12,338
- 0x02d8...0c91 — No, $12,161
