Part of: Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
This prediction market asks whether Iran will publicly agree to end all uranium enrichment by June 30, 2026, including through a unilateral pledge or a deal with the U.S. or Israel. The market resolves Yes if an official pledge is made before the deadline, even if the agreement takes effect later; otherwise it resolves No. PolySpotter is tracking $1,250 in smart money activity across 1 signal, including alerts from sharp and profitable traders on both Yes and No positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $197,555.
Categories: Trump, Geopolitics, Politics, Nuclear, Middle East, World, Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Negotiation Topics
Notable Trades
Profitable serial cross-market trader
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 72% resolved win rate is taking a low-priced Yes position after a sharp selloff.
- This bettor wins 72% of resolved trades and is up $45.8K lifetime.
- They have traded across 43 events and 62 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market process.
- Entry at 5¢ is a longshot bet after Yes fell sharply, implying they see rebound value.
$1,250 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%
Profitable sharp buying momentum
Sharp profitable wallet with an 82% resolved-bet win rate bought Yes amid strong upward momentum in a geopolitics market.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $443k lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 67¢ while the market has climbed 46.5 points over the past week.
- The market is highly active with $1.6M traded in 24h, so this looks like a sharp wallet following real momentum.
$2,226 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
Profitable new wallet flips No
A 4-day-old profitable wallet flipped from a closed Yes position into a $4.4k No bet while No rapidly moved higher.
- This 4-day-old wallet is already up $7.3k and is putting $4.4k behind No.
- The bettor closed a prior Yes position and flipped to No, signaling a fresh change in view.
- No jumped 14.5 points in about 4 minutes, matching the direction of this trade.
$4,356 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Profitable serial trader flips No
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader flipped from a prior Yes position into a $6.4k No bet amid a major volume spike and strong recent price movement.
- This bettor has won 67% of 1,106 resolved bets and is up about $264k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $2.0M deployed across 70 events, suggesting this is part of a broader thesis.
- They flipped from a prior Yes position into No after a sharp Yes rally, while market volume spiked 115x above normal.
$2,280 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Elite serial macro bettor
Surface because this is a highly proven serial cross-market trader with an 89% resolved win rate and $327k lifetime profit buying No on a major geopolitics market.
- This bettor has won 89% of 551 resolved trades and is up $327k lifetime.
- They have a long cross-market track record: 29 events, 33 markets, and $174k in similar positioning.
- They bought No at 60¢, and the market has already moved to 63¢ in their direction.
$2,356 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
Profitable serial trader buying Yes
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader bought Yes at 44¢ alongside linked-wallet support, with the market already showing strong upward momentum.
- This bettor is up $1.19M lifetime across more than 1,300 resolved bets.
- They have traded 158 markets across 110 events, suggesting deep experience in event-based positioning.
- Yes has already moved from 44¢ entry to 48¢, with the market up 34 points over the past week.
$13,573 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 58%
Elite serial macro bettor
Surface because this is a highly proven serial cross-market trader with an 89% resolved win rate and $327k lifetime profit buying No on a major geopolitics market.
- This bettor has won 89% of 551 resolved trades and is up $327k lifetime.
- They have a long cross-market track record: 29 events, 33 markets, and $174k in similar positioning.
- They bought No at 60¢, and the market has already moved to 63¢ in their direction.
$4,900 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
Profitable cross-market trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader is taking the Yes side on a high-volume Iran enrichment market during a major volume spike, though the position is modest and currently moved against them.
- This bettor has won 70% of 259 resolved trades and is up $22.9K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $242K deployed across 67 markets and 48 events.
- The market is seeing a 15.6x volume spike, and this trade effectively backs Yes at 36¢.
$1,085 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%
Profitable serial trader buying Yes
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader bought Yes at 44¢ alongside linked-wallet support, with the market already showing strong upward momentum.
- This bettor is up $1.19M lifetime across more than 1,300 resolved bets.
- They have traded 158 markets across 110 events, suggesting deep experience in event-based positioning.
- Yes has already moved from 44¢ entry to 48¢, with the market up 34 points over the past week.
$1,269 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 58%
Profitable serial macro trader
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 75% record and $269k lifetime profit bought No despite the market’s recent Yes momentum.
- This bettor has won 75% of 407 resolved trades and is up $269k lifetime.
- They are highly experienced across related markets, with $8.4M traded over 174 markets.
- Buying No at 53¢ goes against a strong Yes rally, suggesting a deliberate contrarian view.
$1,681 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
Top Holders
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — Yes, $297,703 (63% win rate)
- 0x6000...f302 — No, $208,320 (71% win rate)
- 0x53e5...6177 — Yes, $175,550 (43% win rate)
- 0xbacd...ab35 — Yes, $144,686 (48% win rate)
- 0x9c26...74bc — No, $138,945 (93% win rate)
- 0x5739...5f1a — No, $110,081 (55% win rate)
- 0x7bc1...8db4 — Yes, $93,022 (77% win rate)
- 0xfffa...864b — No, $90,000 (85% win rate)
- 0xed10...d2e5 — No, $84,421 (89% win rate)
- 0xef9b...d5ed — No, $67,717 (91% win rate)
Related Theses
No US-Iran peace deal
Covers 4 related markets
Iran closes airspace late June
Covers 7 related markets
Trump lifts Hormuz blockade
Covers 5 related markets
Iran deal likely soon
Covers 10 related markets
US-Iran deal timing arbitrage
Covers 11 related markets
Iran deal before mid-June
Covers 6 related markets
