What is the Iran uranium enrichment prediction market about?

This market tracks whether Iran will publicly agree to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026. The agreement can be unilateral or part of a broader deal with the U.S. or Israel.

What would make this market resolve to Yes?

The market resolves to Yes if Iran officially pledges to end all uranium enrichment before the deadline. The pledge does not need to take effect immediately; it only needs to be made before resolution.

When does the Iran enrichment market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve based on whether a qualifying public agreement or pledge is made by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

What are smart money traders doing in this market?

PolySpotter is tracking $52,208 in smart money activity across 2 signals. Recent alerts include a high-win-rate trader leading a Yes cluster, as well as whale and wallet activity backing No or exiting bearish positions.

Where can I track Iran enrichment Polymarket odds?

You can follow this market on PolySpotter to monitor Polymarket odds, smart money signals, whale trades, and changes in positioning as the June 2026 deadline approaches.

Part of: Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

This prediction market asks whether Iran will publicly agree to end all uranium enrichment by June 30, 2026. A “Yes” outcome requires an official Iranian pledge, either unilateral or as part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel, while the market resolves “No” if no qualifying agreement is made by the deadline. PolySpotter is tracking $52,208 in smart money activity, including recent whale and wallet signals leaning around Yes and No positioning.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

24 smart money signals detected, totaling $255,901.

Categories: Trump, Geopolitics, Politics, Nuclear, Middle East, World, Iran, Iran Ceasefire

Notable Trades

Repeat new whale backing No

A repeat-flagged new wallet put $34k on No during a 335x volume spike in a geopolitics market, suggesting fresh high-conviction positioning despite no resolved track record yet.

A new wallet placed $34k on No across five rapid buys, adding to $57k total flagged activity.
Market activity spiked 335x above its historical average, suggesting this trade is part of a broader surge of attention.
Entry around 73¢ means the bettor is taking a confident position that Iran will not agree to end enrichment by the deadline.

$34,122 on No

New wallet bearish exit

A repeat-flagged new wallet exited a sizable Yes position amid a major volume spike, implying a bearish view despite no proven resolved track record.

A new wallet has now been flagged 9 times, with about $20K in notable trades despite no resolved history yet.
This $18K move came during a 326x volume spike, suggesting unusual attention on the market.
Selling Yes at 27–28¢ converts to a No view around 72–73¢.

$18,086 on No

New wallet bearish exit

A repeat-flagged new wallet sold $15.5k of Yes into a 481x volume spike, effectively backing No around 72.5¢, though it has no resolved track record and appears to be exiting prior Yes exposure.

A fresh wallet moved $15.5k in six fills, effectively backing No around 72.5¢.
The market saw a 481x volume spike, suggesting unusual attention around this geopolitical outcome.
This wallet has no resolved track record, so the signal is mainly size and timing rather than proven skill.

$15,510 on No

New whale buys No

A new wallet made a concentrated $47.6k No bet during a 480x volume spike on a geopolitics market, suggesting fresh high-conviction positioning.

A new wallet put $47.6k on No across seven rapid buys.
The market’s volume spiked 480x above its usual pace, suggesting broader attention around this position.
Entry around 72–73¢ implies they see limited chance Iran agrees to end enrichment by the deadline.

$47,615 on No

New wallet backs No

New wallet is making repeat $3.6k No buys during a major volume spike on a geopolitically sensitive market, though it has no resolved track record yet.

A new wallet is making repeat No buys, putting $3.6k into the same side at 72¢.
Market activity has spiked 62x versus its historical average, suggesting broader attention around this outcome.
This is a geopolitics market where sudden positioning may reflect a developing thesis, not just routine trading.

$3,629 on No

Repeat new-wallet whale

A repeat-flagged new wallet is actively trading meaningful size into a high-volume geopolitical market, though the mixed buy/sell flow makes the directional signal weaker.

This new wallet has now been flagged 5 times, with about $7.6K in notable bets tracked so far.
The market saw a 70x volume spike versus its historical average, suggesting fresh attention around this Iran-enrichment question.
Direction is somewhat mixed, but the latest net activity still leans toward No around 72–73¢.

$4,548 on No

New whale backing No

A new wallet repeatedly put nearly $10k on No while market volume spiked sharply, suggesting fresh conviction on a geopolitical market.

A new wallet split nearly $10k into five rapid buys on No at 72¢.
This is the wallet’s fourth large-bet flag, suggesting repeated high-conviction positioning.
Market activity is running 61x above its historical average, adding momentum behind the trade.

$9,720 on No

New whale buying No

New repeat wallet is buying No in size during an 83x volume spike, suggesting fresh conviction despite no resolved track record.

A new wallet is making repeat $1.3k buys on No, totaling $2.6k in this alert.
The market just saw an 83x volume spike versus its usual activity, showing unusual attention around this outcome.
Entry at 73¢ implies they are betting Iran does not agree to end all uranium enrichment by the deadline.

$2,628 on No

New whale buying No

A new wallet is repeatedly sizing into No on a politically sensitive Iran nuclear market during a major volume spike, with about $19.4k bought at 73¢ despite no resolved track record.

A new wallet put $19.4k into No in 10 rapid buys at 73¢.
This wallet has been repeatedly flagged for large new-wallet bets, with $11.7k previously flagged.
Market volume is running 113x above its historical average, suggesting unusual attention around this outcome.

$19,418 on No

New wallet in volume surge

A new wallet is adding/rotating into a No position during a major volume spike on a politically sensitive Iran nuclear market, suggesting fresh event-driven conviction despite no resolved track record.

A new wallet is backing No at 73¢ during a 113x volume spike versus normal activity.
This is an event-driven politics market where sudden volume can reflect traders reacting to fresh news or negotiations.
The wallet has already put about $3.6K into No previously and is trading again at the same level.

$1,314 on No