Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?
19 smart money signals detected, totaling $100,554.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
Sharp cross-market Yes cluster
A highly profitable 81% win-rate wallet joined a 3-wallet $9.8k Yes cluster on a geopolitical long-shot, with cross-market positioning across the same event.
- One wallet in the cluster wins 81% of resolved bets and is up $2.4M lifetime.
- Three wallets bought $9.8k of Yes on a long-shot market now priced around 2%.
- The sharpest trader has bet across 135 events and $5.3M of related cross-market positions.
$9,817 on Yes
Profitable cross-market geopolitics bettor
Profitable 103-bet wallet is making a $7.3k No bet as part of a broader three-market thesis on the same Iran-related event.
- This bettor has won 74% of 103 resolved trades and is up about $29k lifetime.
- They are betting across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- This $7.3k buy at 90¢ backs No despite heavy recent volume on the market.
$7,335 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Elite cross-market political bettor
Sharp high-volume political bettor with an 81% resolved win rate and $2.4M profit is adding to a cross-market Iran ceasefire thesis.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $2.4M lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $5.2M deployed across 215 related markets.
- This is part of a broader 5-market Iran thesis, buying Yes at 16¢ while the market sits near 14–15¢.
$1,800 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
Profitable cross-market specialist
Profitable serial cross-market trader with 920 resolved bets is buying Yes on an Iran ceasefire-extension market while also positioning across the same event.
- This bettor has won 68% of 920 resolved bets and is up $143,757 lifetime.
- They repeatedly trade related markets, with activity across 33 events and 49 markets.
- Buying Yes at 18¢ implies they see meaningful upside versus the current 17% market price.
$1,014 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%
Undefeated cross-market bettor
Sharp undefeated wallet with $306k lifetime profit is buying No as part of a $91k cross-market Iran-event thesis.
- This bettor has won 29 of 29 resolved bets and is up $306k lifetime.
- They have put $91k across 4 related markets, suggesting a clear thesis on this Iran event.
- Buying No at 86¢ shows confidence that no qualifying U.S.-Iran agreement or ceasefire extension will be announced by the deadline.
$9,460 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
82% win-rate cross-market sharp
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 82% win rate and nearly $695k lifetime profit bought No at 82% on the Iran agreement market.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $695k lifetime.
- They have a long cross-market track record: 26 events, 62 markets, and $1.39M traded.
- They are positioned across 5 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader No-side thesis.
$1,523 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Sharp linked wallet buying YES
Sharp profitable wallet from an 18-wallet funded cluster is effectively buying Yes on a geopolitical announcement market despite only modest trade size.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $6,078 lifetime.
- The wallet belongs to an 18-wallet funded cluster, suggesting a coordinated actor behind the position.
- Selling No at 75¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 25¢, a clear bet against the current 76% No consensus.
$1,582 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
81% winner buying Yes
Sharp 81% lifetime winner with $2.4M profit is buying Yes and has a large serial cross-market track record on related event markets.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $2.4M lifetime.
- They are a proven cross-market trader, with $5.2M traded across 135 events.
- Entry at 19¢ is already marked up to 22¢, suggesting early momentum behind the bet.
$1,048 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
Profitable cross-market trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader is taking the bullish side across related Iran ceasefire markets, effectively buying Yes at 17¢.
- This bettor has a long record across 723 resolved markets and is up $27.5K lifetime.
- They are active across 3 related markets in this Iran event, suggesting a specific directional thesis.
- Selling No at 83¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 17¢, below the current 22¢ market price.
$1,249 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%
Serial cross-market winner
Experienced cross-market trader with a positive long-term record is buying No across related Iran agreement markets, suggesting a directional thesis.
- This bettor has 723 resolved trades, wins 67% of them, and is up $27k lifetime.
- They are active across 3 related markets with $8.2k positioned, suggesting a broader No thesis.
- Bought No at 83¢ and the market has already moved to 86¢.
$1,554 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%
Top Holders
- 0x1c12...79d9 — Outcome 96735359, $201,790 (17% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 96735359, $158,001 (82% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Outcome 96735359, $77,752 (80% win rate)
- 0x73e3...3239 — Outcome 96735359, $24,210 (95% win rate)
- 0x8df9...468c — Outcome 96735359, $15,000
- 0x8c66...44f3 — Outcome 96735359, $12,931 (79% win rate)
- 0x1fce...a7c8 — Outcome 96735359, $11,513 (100% win rate)
- 0x9592...a7b8 — Outcome 96735359, $9,969 (96% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — Outcome 96735359, $9,712 (59% win rate)
- 0x481d...9098 — Outcome 96735359, $9,000 (62% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Covers 4 related markets
April Deal Then No Lasting Peace
Covers 4 related markets
Iran ceasefire collapses by June
Covers 6 related markets
Iran deal by mid-June
Covers 9 related markets
No permanent Iran peace deal
Covers 9 related markets
