Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?

19 smart money signals detected, totaling $100,554.

Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

Sharp cross-market Yes cluster

A highly profitable 81% win-rate wallet joined a 3-wallet $9.8k Yes cluster on a geopolitical long-shot, with cross-market positioning across the same event.

  • One wallet in the cluster wins 81% of resolved bets and is up $2.4M lifetime.
  • Three wallets bought $9.8k of Yes on a long-shot market now priced around 2%.
  • The sharpest trader has bet across 135 events and $5.3M of related cross-market positions.

$9,817 on Yes

Profitable cross-market geopolitics bettor

Profitable 103-bet wallet is making a $7.3k No bet as part of a broader three-market thesis on the same Iran-related event.

  • This bettor has won 74% of 103 resolved trades and is up about $29k lifetime.
  • They are betting across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
  • This $7.3k buy at 90¢ backs No despite heavy recent volume on the market.

$7,335 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Elite cross-market political bettor

Sharp high-volume political bettor with an 81% resolved win rate and $2.4M profit is adding to a cross-market Iran ceasefire thesis.

  • This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $2.4M lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $5.2M deployed across 215 related markets.
  • This is part of a broader 5-market Iran thesis, buying Yes at 16¢ while the market sits near 14–15¢.

$1,800 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%

Profitable cross-market specialist

Profitable serial cross-market trader with 920 resolved bets is buying Yes on an Iran ceasefire-extension market while also positioning across the same event.

  • This bettor has won 68% of 920 resolved bets and is up $143,757 lifetime.
  • They repeatedly trade related markets, with activity across 33 events and 49 markets.
  • Buying Yes at 18¢ implies they see meaningful upside versus the current 17% market price.

$1,014 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%

Undefeated cross-market bettor

Sharp undefeated wallet with $306k lifetime profit is buying No as part of a $91k cross-market Iran-event thesis.

  • This bettor has won 29 of 29 resolved bets and is up $306k lifetime.
  • They have put $91k across 4 related markets, suggesting a clear thesis on this Iran event.
  • Buying No at 86¢ shows confidence that no qualifying U.S.-Iran agreement or ceasefire extension will be announced by the deadline.

$9,460 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

82% win-rate cross-market sharp

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 82% win rate and nearly $695k lifetime profit bought No at 82% on the Iran agreement market.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $695k lifetime.
  • They have a long cross-market track record: 26 events, 62 markets, and $1.39M traded.
  • They are positioned across 5 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader No-side thesis.

$1,523 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Sharp linked wallet buying YES

Sharp profitable wallet from an 18-wallet funded cluster is effectively buying Yes on a geopolitical announcement market despite only modest trade size.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $6,078 lifetime.
  • The wallet belongs to an 18-wallet funded cluster, suggesting a coordinated actor behind the position.
  • Selling No at 75¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 25¢, a clear bet against the current 76% No consensus.

$1,582 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

81% winner buying Yes

Sharp 81% lifetime winner with $2.4M profit is buying Yes and has a large serial cross-market track record on related event markets.

  • This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $2.4M lifetime.
  • They are a proven cross-market trader, with $5.2M traded across 135 events.
  • Entry at 19¢ is already marked up to 22¢, suggesting early momentum behind the bet.

$1,048 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%

Profitable cross-market trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader is taking the bullish side across related Iran ceasefire markets, effectively buying Yes at 17¢.

  • This bettor has a long record across 723 resolved markets and is up $27.5K lifetime.
  • They are active across 3 related markets in this Iran event, suggesting a specific directional thesis.
  • Selling No at 83¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 17¢, below the current 22¢ market price.

$1,249 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%

Serial cross-market winner

Experienced cross-market trader with a positive long-term record is buying No across related Iran agreement markets, suggesting a directional thesis.

  • This bettor has 723 resolved trades, wins 67% of them, and is up $27k lifetime.
  • They are active across 3 related markets with $8.2k positioned, suggesting a broader No thesis.
  • Bought No at 83¢ and the market has already moved to 86¢.

$1,554 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%

Top Holders

  1. 0x1c12...79d9 Outcome 96735359, $201,790 (17% win rate)
  2. 0xfc2f...10c7 Outcome 96735359, $158,001 (82% win rate)
  3. 0xde7b...5f4b Outcome 96735359, $77,752 (80% win rate)
  4. 0x73e3...3239 Outcome 96735359, $24,210 (95% win rate)
  5. 0x8df9...468c Outcome 96735359, $15,000
  6. 0x8c66...44f3 Outcome 96735359, $12,931 (79% win rate)
  7. 0x1fce...a7c8 Outcome 96735359, $11,513 (100% win rate)
  8. 0x9592...a7b8 Outcome 96735359, $9,969 (96% win rate)
  9. 0x7447...a16d Outcome 96735359, $9,712 (59% win rate)
  10. 0x481d...9098 Outcome 96735359, $9,000 (62% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 7 related markets

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Covers 4 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 4 related markets

April Deal Then No Lasting Peace

Covers 4 related markets

Iran ceasefire collapses by June

Covers 6 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 9 related markets

No permanent Iran peace deal

Covers 9 related markets

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?

ResolvedUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?$100,554 tracked19 signalsPoliticsGeopoliticsIran CeasefireIranU.S. x Iran

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.

Price History — “No
102¢
70¢
38¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?

7d ago

$9,817 on Yes at 8¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?

7d ago

$7,335 on No at 90¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?

7d ago

$1,800 on Yes at 16¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?

7d ago

$1,014 on Yes at 18¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?

8d ago

$9,460 on No at 86¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?

8d ago

$1,523 on No at 82¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?

8d ago

$1,582 on Yes at 25¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?

8d ago

$1,048 on Yes at 19¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?

8d ago

$1,249 on Yes at 17¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?

8d ago

$1,554 on No at 83¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?

8d ago

$4,150 on No at 83¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?

8d ago

$8,700 on No at 86¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?

8d ago

$1,504 on Yes at 15¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?

8d ago

$1,374 on Yes at 15¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?

8d ago

$36,413 on No at 89¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?

8d ago

$6,240 on No at 86¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?

8d ago

$1,386 on Yes at 16¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?

9d ago

$2,705 on No at 81¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?

9d ago

$1,700 on No at 81¢

Related Theses