What does the US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31 market predict?

It predicts whether the United States and Iran will officially reach and publicly announce a mutual agreement related to Iranian nuclear research or nuclear weapon development by July 31, 2026.

When does this US-Iran nuclear deal market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve based on whether a qualifying agreement is reached by July 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. If no official agreement is announced by then, it resolves No.

What smart money activity is PolySpotter tracking on this market?

PolySpotter has tracked $4,030 in smart money across 3 signals. Recent alerts include sharp serial traders buying Yes, a proven politics bettor buying Yes, and a profitable new wallet buying No.

Where can I follow live Polymarket odds for a US-Iran nuclear deal?

You can follow the live prediction market price, smart money alerts, and position changes on PolySpotter’s market page for the US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31 market.

Part of: US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?

US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?

Q: What counts as a Yes outcome for this market?

A Yes outcome requires a publicly announced mutual agreement between the U.S. and Iran concerning Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development. The agreement does not need to take effect before the deadline if it is officially reached in time.

This prediction market asks whether the United States and Iran will publicly announce a mutual agreement covering Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapons development by July 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves Yes if an official agreement is reached before the deadline, even if it takes effect later; otherwise it resolves No. PolySpotter is tracking $4,030 in smart money activity across 3 signals, including recent sharp Yes buying and one profitable wallet buying No.

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,381.

Categories: Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Middle East, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Politics, Peace Deal, Negotiation Topics

Notable Trades

Sharp serial trader buys Yes

Sharp cross-market bettor with an 81% resolved win rate and +$590k P&L is buying Yes into strong recent momentum on a plausible geopolitics market.

This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up about $590k lifetime.
They are a very active cross-market trader, with 160 markets traded across 54 events.
Yes has already moved up 30 points this week, and this buy adds to the pro-deal momentum.

$1,137 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Proven politics bettor buying Yes

Sharp wallet with a 79% historical win rate and +$91.7k P&L bought Yes on a politically meaningful market before a continued move higher.

This bettor has won 79% of 238 resolved bets and is up $91.7k lifetime.
They bought Yes at 73¢, and the market has already moved to about 80¢.
The market is showing strong momentum, up 42.5 points over the past week.

$1,095 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

Sharp serial trader buys Yes

Sharp cross-market bettor with an 81% resolved win rate and +$590k P&L is buying Yes into strong recent momentum on a plausible geopolitics market.

This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up about $590k lifetime.
They are a very active cross-market trader, with 160 markets traded across 54 events.
Yes has already moved up 30 points this week, and this buy adds to the pro-deal momentum.

$1,798 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable high-volume cross-market trader with a large resolved history is buying Yes into strong recent momentum on a geopolitical market.

This bettor has won 64% of 1,626 resolved trades and is up $242,871 lifetime.
They have traded across 387 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy rather than a one-off bet.
Yes has jumped 29 percentage points in the past day, and this trade follows that momentum at 60¢.

$1,080 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%

Profitable new wallet buying No

A 15-day-old wallet with repeat large flagged bets and early profits is adding a $3.3k No position on a politically meaningful market.

This 15-day-old wallet has already made 5 positions and is up $1,089 so far.
The bettor has been flagged 3 times for large new-wallet bets, totaling $9,658 in notable activity.
Entry at 58¢ suggests a confident view that a US-Iran nuclear deal is less likely than the market implies.

$3,272 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Top Holders

0xcca9...4c9f — Outcome 12495069, $21,344 (63% win rate)
0x0b9d...8201 — Outcome 12495069, $5,907 (58% win rate)
0x79cd...079b — Outcome 12495069, $5,700 (100% win rate)
0x52f9...e1c7 — Outcome 12495069, $5,564 (58% win rate)
0x334b...d971 — Outcome 12495069, $5,360 (56% win rate)
0x1437...acfe — Outcome 12495069, $3,167
0x8b3c...110b — Outcome 12495069, $3,118 (65% win rate)
0x3a59...6c6f — Outcome 12495069, $3,080 (74% win rate)
0x027e...c97f — Outcome 12495069, $2,632
0x6f6f...ce33 — Outcome 12495069, $2,126 (100% win rate)

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US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?

29dUS-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?$8,381 tracked5 signalsIranIran CeasefireMiddle EastU.S. x IranGeopoliticsPoliticsPeace DealNegotiation Topics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.