Part of: US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
23 smart money signals detected, totaling $75,876.
Categories: Trump, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Politics
Notable Trades
$1M-profit cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume wallet with over $1M lifetime P&L is building a cross-market Iran uranium thesis, including a cheap 3¢ Yes position.
- This bettor is up about $1.03M lifetime across more than 1,100 resolved markets.
- They have placed $16K across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader Iran uranium thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Entry at 3¢ is a low-cost longshot with large upside if official confirmation arrives.
$1,297 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
89% serial sharp
Sharp 89% win-rate wallet with a long serial cross-market record is buying Yes on a geopolitical market, despite only modest trade size.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $170k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 75 events with $3.1M in tracked volume.
- They have put $14.7k across 2 markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis.
$1,619 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
Profitable whale buying longshot Yes
Sharp wallet with 80% win rate and $2.3M lifetime profit is buying a low-priced Yes as part of a larger cross-market Iran uranium thesis.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $2.3M lifetime.
- They have put about $29K across related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Entry at 9¢ is a high-upside position in a liquid geopolitical market.
$3,840 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
89% serial cross-market bettor
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 89% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is effectively backing No at 90¢.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $172,903 lifetime.
- They have traded across 75 events and $3.1M of cross-market volume, suggesting a repeatable research edge.
- This trade effectively backs No at 90¢ as Yes has drifted down 5 points in the past day.
$1,111 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
93% winner backs No
Surface because a highly profitable 93% lifetime winner is effectively buying No, with additional support from a recurring 4-wallet funded cluster.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $1.86M lifetime.
- The wallet is part of a 4-wallet funded cluster that has appeared in prior runs.
- Selling Yes at 15¢ is equivalent to buying No at 85¢.
$1,264 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
93% winner buying Yes
Surface this: an exceptionally profitable 93% win-rate wallet is buying Yes, with linked-wallet and cross-market activity adding corroboration.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $1.86M lifetime.
- Four wallets tied to the same funder are active around this thesis, adding a coordinated-flow signal.
- Entry at 13¢ is close to the current market price and implies a high-upside bet if they are right.
$1,134 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Seasoned profitable cross-market trader is taking the No side as part of a broader $33.6k event-level position, though this specific trade is modest.
- This bettor has 157 resolved bets, wins 59% of them, and is up $176k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with positions across 40 events and $933k tracked volume.
- This is part of a broader $33.6k position across related markets, backing No at an 88¢ effective entry.
$1,272 on No | Wallet win rate: 52%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable high-volume serial cross-market trader is betting against the uranium transfer outcome, though the edge signal is moderate rather than elite.
- This bettor has traded 79 related-event markets and is up $176K lifetime.
- They are taking the No side here, effectively entering around 86¢.
- The wallet has $35K positioned across two markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis.
$3,089 on No | Wallet win rate: 52%
Profitable cross-market whale
A historically profitable high-volume wallet is building a cross-market thesis on the Iran uranium event, including a Yes buy at 14¢.
- This high-volume bettor is up about $1.0M lifetime on $8.3M invested.
- They have put roughly $102k across two related markets in the same event.
- Buying Yes at 14¢ suggests they see meaningful upside versus the market’s current low odds.
$1,750 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 26%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume wallet is building a cross-market thesis across three related Iran uranium markets, adding $2.6k to No at 87¢.
- This bettor is up $401k lifetime across more than 1,000 resolved markets.
- They have placed $31k across three related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 87¢ aligns with the market’s current 86% No pricing but shows continued confidence.
$2,610 on No | Wallet win rate: 56%
Top Holders
- 0x5bec...03e8 — Outcome 10701078, $101,639
- 0x6139...6b7a — Outcome 10701078, $67,395 (71% win rate)
- 0x5739...5f1a — Outcome 10701078, $52,490 (55% win rate)
- 0xd109...6fa0 — Outcome 10701078, $51,766 (80% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Outcome 10701078, $40,504 (80% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 10701078, $33,660 (69% win rate)
- 0xb464...1d98 — Outcome 10701078, $21,635 (32% win rate)
- 0x0042...321e — Outcome 10701078, $20,821 (52% win rate)
- 0xef5e...41dc — Outcome 10701078, $18,994
- 0x5138...4fe5 — Outcome 10701078, $16,625 (40% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Covers 4 related markets
Iran ceasefire collapses by June
Covers 6 related markets
Iran peace deal by June
Covers 7 related markets
US-Iran peace deal coming
Covers 9 related markets
