Part of: US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?

This Polymarket market asks whether the US-Iran ceasefire continues through November 15, 2026. It resolves No if the United States initiates a qualifying air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts Iran by 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time; otherwise, it resolves Yes. Current odds were not included in the provided market data; PolySpotter reports $6,806 in tracked smart money and one recent signal, with a trader scaling into Yes.

This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

12 smart money signals detected, totaling $46,368.

Categories: Iran, Trump, Israel, Military, Politics, Geopolitics, Middle East, Israel x Iran, Military Actions, Military Strikes

Notable Trades

Profitable 380-bet sharp bettor

A highly profitable bettor with 380 resolved positions and a reported 18-point edge bought Yes, making this a credible sharp-trader signal despite odds near the current market price.

  • This bettor has won 76% of 380 resolved bets and is up about $765,000.
  • The trade detector reports an 18-point edge over the bettor’s average odds.
  • They bought Yes at 62¢, near the current 62% market odds.

$2,476 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

Five-wallet funded cluster

Five wallets linked by a shared funder have positioned in this market across prior runs, though the featured trader has a weak 45% record and the evidence is not a proven edge.

  • Five wallets sharing a funder have bet on this market, with the cluster recurring across prior runs.
  • The featured trader has a 45% win rate, so the linked-wallet activity—not their personal track record—is the main signal.

$1,447 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 45%

Profitable serial cross-market trader

A historically profitable 92%-winning trader is adding to a sizable Yes position at 50¢, with repeated cross-market activity supporting the signal.

  • This bettor has won 92% of 126 resolved markets and is up $68,220 overall.
  • They added $3,271 to an existing Yes position at 50¢, near the current 52¢ price.
  • The wallet has traded across 54 events, and this alert includes positioning in two markets tied to the same event.

$3,271 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

Proven 82% winner buying Yes

A highly experienced, profitable bettor with an 82% win rate is buying Yes at 50¢ and has repeatedly traded across event markets.

  • This bettor has won 82% of 283 resolved trades and is up $107,510 overall.
  • They are buying Yes at 50¢ and have traded across 38 events, with positions in three markets tied to this event.

$1,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Profitable bettor taking a No position

A highly profitable bettor with 150 resolved trades and a 76% win rate is selling Yes while positioning across three related markets.

  • This bettor has won 76% of 150 resolved trades and is up $273,769.
  • They sold Yes at 50¢, equivalent to buying No at 50¢, and have traded across three related markets.

$1,979 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Three-wallet coordinated Yes buying

Three wallets bought Yes for $10.2k amid a 22.7x volume spike, with recent odds movement in the same direction, though the wallets' records do not show uniformly strong edge.

  • Three wallets bought Yes for about $10,241, and the market saw a 22.7x volume spike versus its historical average.
  • Yes odds have risen 7 points over the past day, broadly corroborating the direction of the buying.
  • Two established wallets are adding to existing Yes positions; their track records are mixed rather than uniformly exceptional.

$9,079 on Yes

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

A highly profitable bettor with a 76% win rate across 150 resolved positions is buying Yes and has a history of active cross-market trading.

  • This bettor wins 76% of 150 resolved positions and is up $273,375 overall.
  • They have traded across 71 events and are making a fresh $2,036 Yes bet at 52¢.

$2,036 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

Three-wallet No-position cluster

Three wallets aligned on No in a geopolitical market, with recent price movement supporting the direction, though one trade may be an existing-position reduction.

  • Three wallets put about $5,580 toward No exposure, including two selling Yes and one buying No.
  • Yes has fallen 7.5% over the past week, consistent with the cluster's No direction.
  • One seller already held Yes shares, so part of the flow may reflect position management rather than a fresh bet.

$5,580 on No

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

A profitable bettor with 150 resolved positions and a substantial edge made a fresh, sizable Yes purchase while positioning across three markets in the same event.

  • This bettor has won 76% of 150 resolved positions and is up $273,375 lifetime.
  • They placed two sizable Yes buys totaling about $7,160 and have positioned across three markets in this event.

$7,160 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

Serial event trader scaling into Yes

A profitable high-volume trader added to an existing Yes position with a $6.8k purchase that accounted for 89% of the market's 24-hour volume, amid substantial same-event positioning.

  • This trader is up $487,805 across more than 1,000 resolved bets and added to an existing Yes position.
  • The $6,806 purchase was 89% of the market's 24-hour volume; the trader has $73,035 spread across five markets in this event.

$1,285 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 61%

Top Holders

  1. 0xc851...cd2a — Yes, $40,000 (52% win rate)
  2. 0x60a9...5a71 — No, $20,058 (48% win rate)
  3. 0xf559...f462 — No, $20,000 (92% win rate)
  4. 0xcf19...6402 — No, $17,162 (58% win rate)
  5. 0x187f...5fee — No, $9,359 (37% win rate)
  6. 0x524d...4495 — Yes, $7,674 (77% win rate)
  7. 0x3007...763a — Yes, $7,600 (68% win rate)
  8. 0x36da...907b — Yes, $7,025 (74% win rate)
  9. 0x9592...a7b8 — No, $6,699 (76% win rate)
  10. 0x85a8...9281 — Yes, $6,541 (92% win rate)

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks

Covers 16 related markets

Crude oil market arbitrage

Covers 11 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

Hormuz blockade persists

Covers 9 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Iran blockade persists into 2027

Covers 10 related markets

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?$46,368 tracked12 signalsIranTrumpIsraelMilitaryPoliticsGeopoliticsMiddle EastIsrael x IranMilitary ActionsMilitary Strikes
Yes
62¢
No
38¢

This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes”
63¢
55¢
47¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?

2026-11-02 15:19 UTC

$2,476 on Yes at 62¢

62¢→62¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?

2026-11-02 13:59 UTC

$1,447 on Yes at 60¢

60¢→62¢↑2¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?

2026-11-01 12:10 UTC

$3,271 on Yes at 50¢

50¢→62¢↑12¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?

2026-11-01 10:51 UTC

$1,000 on Yes at 50¢

50¢→62¢↑12¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?

2026-10-31 11:57 UTC

$1,979 on No at 50¢

50¢→38¢↓12¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?

2026-11-01 12:20 UTC

$9,079 on Yes at 50¢

50¢→62¢↑12¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?

2026-10-28 16:18 UTC

$2,036 on Yes at 52¢

52¢→62¢↑10¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?

2026-10-28 01:17 UTC

$5,580 on No at 50¢

50¢→38¢↓12¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?

2026-10-27 08:47 UTC

$7,160 on Yes at 59¢

59¢→62¢↑3¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?

2026-10-21 04:38 UTC

$1,285 on Yes at 57¢

57¢→62¢↑5¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?

2026-10-20 19:52 UTC

$4,249 on Yes at 57¢

57¢→62¢↑5¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?

2026-10-18 00:30 UTC

$6,806 on Yes at 57¢

57¢→62¢↑5¢

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks
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US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…
Crude oil market arbitrage
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Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) …Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…
Iran deal by mid-June
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US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…
Hormuz blockade persists
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Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…
Iran peace deal won’t happen
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US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
Iran closes airspace mid-May
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Iran closes its airspace by Ju…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…
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Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…
WTI stays between $90 and $105
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Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
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Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Iran blockade persists into 2027
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US announces end of Iranian bl…US announces end of Iranian bl…US announces end of Iranian bl…